Pre-earnings channel check · Dealer group
Carvana Co. (CVNA) · Q3 2026
Q3 2026 (quarter ended 30 September 2026) · published Oct 20, 2026 · 32 min read · reported Wed, Oct 28, 2026
What the report says
North American Vehicle Transaction Signal
Carvana sold 203,895 used vehicles in our data between July and September, 9.9% more than in the June quarter and 37.2% more than a year ago, while the used market we capture shrank 3.5%. Its share of captured used sales rose 1.2 percentage points to 3.9%. The average car sold after 28 days on Carvana's site, level with the June quarter and a year ago and well ahead of the market on sell-through, and the average last listed price held at $27,782, up 5.3% on the year, roughly half of it from a newer, more expensive mix.
Two measures keep the call short of Bullish. The lot grew 30.7% year over year against sales up 37.2%, so stock is still growing more slowly than sales at a company whose management says inventory is the constraint on growth, although it grew faster than sales on the quarter. And more cars sold below their opening asking price: 62.8% against 53.6% a year ago, with the average car giving up 2.9% of its first ask against 2.5%.
The measures that would change this call are the gap between inventory growth and sales growth, and the share of cars sold below their first ask.
Full details are in the report.
16 sections · 26 tables · methodology, quality checks and glossary included
Inside
Summary
- Our Overall Take
- The Quarter in Numbers
- Seven Signals at a Glance
Full analysis
- 00Data Scope Notice
- 01North American Vehicle Transaction Signal
- 02Signal Table
- 03Sold Volume Summary and Market Share
- 04Top Selling Makes
- 05Active Inventory Composition
- 06Discount from First Listed Price
- 07Days on Site, Days on Market and Market Days Supply
- 08Electrified Vehicle Sell-Through
- 09Bull Case
- 10Bear Case
- 11Management Verification and Watch Items
- 12Methodology Note
What this report covers
MarketCheck data on used vehicles Carvana listed and sold through its U.S. retail website. What we cannot see: wholesale vehicle sales and auction activity, including the ADESA business; income from originating and selling auto loans and from vehicle service contracts and other products; the gross revenue treatment of vehicles bought from a large marketplace partner; reconditioning, logistics and other vehicle costs; advertising and other selling and administrative expense; and new vehicles sold through the franchise dealerships Carvana has acquired, which are too few in our data to read. In the June quarter Carvana sold 105,052 wholesale vehicles alongside 197,325 retail units (Carvana Form 10-Q for that quarter). A strong or weak signal here reads on the retail car-selling side only and does not by itself predict total company profitability. Section 12 sets out what the data can and cannot support.
Not investment advice. MarketCheck is a data and analytics company, not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer. The report describes North American retail vehicle activity only and carries its full disclosures.