# Penske Automotive Group (PAG): Q3 2026 Pre-Earnings Channel Check

Canonical URL: https://ai.marketcheck.com/i/s/pag-q3-2026

**Free sample**: the post-print edition, with the accuracy review against the reported results. Penske Automotive Group reported on Oct 28, 2026. Investor Desk: https://ai.marketcheck.com/investor · PDF: https://ai.marketcheck.com/api/investor/pdf/s-pag-q3-2026

Not investment advice. MarketCheck is a data and analytics company, not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer.

## What the report says

North American Vehicle Transaction Signal

- Signal: Neutral. Confidence: Medium.

At the stores Penske owned through both years, new-vehicle sales fell 4.2% from a year ago, against a 3.0% fall for the whole new market. In the second quarter the same measure ran 1.5 points ahead of the market, so the new-car lead has gone.

New cars still sold closer to sticker than a year ago while franchise dealers overall moved less, and new Market Days Supply sits inside its typical range.

Used stock grew 18.9% from a year ago, after setting aside cars listed more than 180 days at the same store as service loaners, and used Market Days Supply rose to 38, at the top of our typical range, while used sales at the same stores fell 5.9%; our used measure read too low against the company's own figures in the second quarter.

The headline counts are inflated by the Longo Toyota and Lexus stores in El Monte, California, which our data began to capture fully only in early 2026.

Gross profit per car, finance and insurance, service, trucks and the international business are outside our data and can move the company's quarter a full tier either way.

---

**Post-Print Version: accuracy summary added October 29, 2026 (see Section 11C)**

# PART 1: SUMMARY

## Our Overall Take

**NEUTRAL | Confidence: MEDIUM**

*This is a read on Penske's U.S. vehicle-selling business only, not a rating on the company.* Penske runs car dealerships in the United States and abroad, plus commercial truck dealerships and a stake in a truck-leasing business *(management's own disclosure)*. Our data follows what happens on its U.S. car lots: how many cars sell, at what price, and how long they wait for a buyer. This report covers July through September 2026.

**New-car sales now trail the market slightly.** At the stores Penske owned through both years, identified store by store from the seller records now carried in Compass, new-vehicle sales fell 4.2% from a year ago, against a 3.0% fall for the whole new market. In the second quarter the same measure grew 0.4% while the market fell 1.1%, and Penske reported U.S. same-store new units up 2.8% *(management's own disclosure)*. The lead over the market has closed.

**The headline counts overstate growth.** All-store new sales rose 7.0% and vehicle revenue in our data rose 9.5% to $3.8 billion. Most of that is the Longo Toyota and Lexus stores in El Monte, California: Penske has owned them throughout, but our data captured only 24 of their new-car sales a year ago against 5,948 this quarter. Without El Monte, new sales fell 5.5% and vehicle revenue rose 0.5%.

**New pricing held up.** New cars sold 0.3% below sticker, against 1.4% a year ago; franchise dealers overall moved from 3.4% to 3.2% below.

**The used lot grew.** Used stock rose 18.9% from a year ago to 12,992 cars, after setting aside 1,678 cars that had been listed more than 180 days at the same store, which we treat as service loaners (Section 12), and used Market Days Supply rose to 38 from 31, at the top of our typical range of 27 to 40 days. Used same-store sales fell 5.9%, but that same-store measure read 7.1 points below Penske's own figure in the second quarter. Management expected rising lease returns to add used supply *(management's own disclosure)*.

Why neutral: new-car volume moved close to the market and pricing stayed firm, while the used lot grew faster than used sales. What keeps it from Cautiously Bearish is that new and used Market Days Supply both sit inside their typical ranges, new pricing held, and our used volume measure has read too low in each of the last three quarters. Gross profit per car, finance and insurance, service, trucks and the international business are outside our data; they can move the company's result a full tier in either direction.

## The Quarter in Numbers

*Source: MarketCheck Compass, Penske's U.S. stores. "Same stores" compares only the stores Penske owned through both quarters, identified store by store from the seller records now carried in Compass (Section 3).*

| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New vehicles sold (all stores) | 50,741 | 47,402 | +7.0% | 52,721 |
| New vehicles sold, excluding El Monte | 44,793 | 47,378 | −5.5% | 46,436 |
| New vehicles sold, same stores | 41,508 | 43,343 | −4.2% | – |
| New average transaction price | $54,548 | $53,346 | +2.3% | $54,748 |
| Used vehicles sold (all stores) | 31,769 | 32,219 | −1.4% | 33,357 |
| Used vehicles sold, excluding El Monte | 30,732 | 32,149 | −4.4% | 32,388 |
| Used vehicles sold, same stores | 28,717 | 30,513 | −5.9% | – |
| Used average transaction price | $36,775 | $35,189 | +4.5% | $36,668 |
| Vehicle revenue in our data | $3.8B | $3.5B | +9.5% | $3.9B |
| Vehicle revenue, excluding El Monte | $3.5B | $3.5B | +0.5% | $3.6B |

| Market share | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New unit share | 1.2% | 1.1% | +0.1 pp | 1.3% |
| New revenue share | 1.4% | 1.2% | +0.1 pp | 1.4% |
| Used unit share | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0 pp | 0.6% |
| Used revenue share | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0 pp | 0.8% |

*Market share is computed against MarketCheck Compass-captured North American retail transactions for the same period, not against total US registrations or company-reported deliveries. Coverage of new-vehicle retail runs approximately 80–95% of the actual market and varies by brand, so these figures are a consistent relative measure across periods, not an absolute share of the true market.*

Every share move is below the 0.3-point level we treat as meaningful, and the new-share gain from a year ago comes from El Monte entering our data. Against the second quarter, shares slipped on both sides.

## Inventory and Pricing Risk

| On the lots, September 30 | New | Used |
|---|---|---|
| Vehicles for sale | 30,306 | 12,992 |
| Change vs. year ago | +6.3% | +18.9% |
| Change vs. June 30 | −0.9% | +0.5% |
| Average list price | $60,811 | $40,052 |
| Share of stock over 90 days on site | 21.7% | 9.6% |
| Market Days Supply | 53 | 38 |
| Market Days Supply, year ago | 55 | 31 |

New Market Days Supply sits inside the typical range for franchise dealers (46 to 80 days), and brand by brand Penske carries less new supply than franchise dealers in most of its large brands. Used Market Days Supply of 38 sits at the top of the typical range (27 to 40 days), up from 31 a year ago and 34 in June. Used inventory figures throughout this report exclude cars listed more than 180 days at the same store, an interim rule for service loaners (Section 12); on the unfiltered lot the used figure would be 43. The used lot is older as well as bigger: 9.6% of used cars had waited more than 90 days at the store selling them, against 6.9% a year ago. Management framed its used build as lease returns feeding its certified pre-owned business *(management's own disclosure)*; younger cars did make up more of what Penske sold.

## Electric Vehicles, Geography, and the Two Cases

**Electric vehicles.** New fully electric (battery-electric) sales fell 57.4% to 1,487 after the federal purchase credit ended on September 30, 2025, against a 52.6% fall for the market. Used fully electric sales rose 27.3% to 1,500, against 11.5% for the market. Hybrids are 49.1% of Penske's new sales. Penske has not discussed North American electric-vehicle sales on its recent calls, so we show this as context, not as a scored signal.

**Geography.** California new sales rose 52.8% because of El Monte, Florida new rose 20.2% on the Orlando-area stores Penske bought, and Texas new fell 14.3% after the sale of the Pharr stores *(management's own disclosure for the transactions)*. Arizona and Georgia used sales fell 10.2% and 13.5% with no store sale on record that explains them.

**The positive case.** New cars sold closer to sticker than a year ago while the market barely moved, Toyota new stock turns faster than franchise dealers' Toyota stock, Lexus new stock turns quickly, and new Market Days Supply sits inside its typical range. Used cars sold were younger and dearer, which fits management's lease-return account.

**The negative case.** The new-car lead over the market seen in the second quarter is gone, used stock grew about 19% while used sales fell, and the used lot is older. Our data cannot say what that does to profit per car.

---

# PART 2: FULL ANALYSIS

## Section 1: Overall Verdict and Confidence

**NEUTRAL | Confidence: MEDIUM**

This is a read on Penske's U.S. vehicle-selling business only, not a rating on the company. Finance & Insurance income, aftersales, the international business, commercial trucks, Penske Transportation Solutions, overhead and the gross profit Penske earns on each car are outside our data.

Why neutral: at the stores Penske owned through both years, new sales fell 4.2% in a new market down 3.0%, and used sales fell 5.9% in a used market down 3.5%. New cars sold 0.3% below sticker, against 1.4% a year ago, while franchise dealers overall moved only from 3.4% to 3.2% below. The used lot grew 18.9% from a year ago after the service-loaner exclusion, and used Market Days Supply rose to 38, at the top of the typical range.

How much weight the volume figures carry: on the store-level panel now used, our second-quarter same-store new figure was 2.4 points below Penske's reported U.S. same-store change and our used figure 7.1 points below it, both in the same direction. The new reading carries medium weight because the gap is small and one-directional; the used reading carries low weight, and both point, if anything, too low.

*Weighting note: the signal table leans negative on new-car momentum and, at low weight, on the used inventory build, positive on new pricing, and neutral on volume against the market, revenue and inventory discipline. The used build carries low weight because used Market Days Supply is inside its typical range once service loaners are set aside. The profit measures are not observable.*

Confidence is Medium, capped by two things: our count of El Monte's sales a year ago is incomplete, so the all-store comparisons cannot be read at face value; and our captured revenue appears to run above the company's U.S. vehicle revenue. Management guided to rising lease returns and service growth, and the international and truck businesses carried much of the second quarter; those sit outside our data and can move the company's result a full tier in either direction.

---

## Section 2: Signal Summary Table

| Signal Lens | What the Data Shows | Signal | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Revenue Nowcasting** | Vehicle revenue in our data $3.8B, +9.5%; excluding El Monte $3.5B, +0.5% | Neutral | Medium |
| **New volume against the market** | Same-store new −4.2% against −3.0% for the market; excluding El Monte −5.5% | Neutral | Medium |
| **New volume momentum** | Same-store new went from 1.5 points ahead of the market in the second quarter to 1.2 points behind | Cautiously Bearish | Medium |
| **Used volume against the market** | Same-store used −5.9% against −3.5%; in the second quarter this measure read 7.1 points below the company | Neutral | Low |
| **Pricing Power (new)** | New cars sold 0.3% below sticker against 1.4% a year ago; franchise dealers 3.2% against 3.4% | Cautiously Bullish | Low |
| **Used pricing (discount from first listed price)** | Average used discount −2.1% against −4.2%; franchise dealers −2.8% against −3.5%; more cars ended above their first asking price | Neutral | Low |
| **Inventory Build Risk (used)** | Used stock +18.9% from a year ago after the service-loaner exclusion; used Market Days Supply 38, at the top of the typical range; stock over 90 days on site 9.6% against 6.9% | Cautiously Bearish | Low |
| **Inventory Discipline (new)** | New Market Days Supply 53, inside the typical range; brand by brand, new supply runs 74% to 107% of the franchise benchmark | Neutral | Medium |
| **Brand Equity (Toyota, 43.5% of new)** | Toyota new vehicles sold +16.9% all stores, 0.3% above sticker, Market Days Supply at 89% of the franchise benchmark | Neutral | Low |
| **EV Transition Tracking** | New fully electric −57.4% against −52.6% for the market; used fully electric +27.3% against +11.5%; Penske gives no North American electric-vehicle disclosure to grade against | Context only | – |
| **Management Verification** | New same-store figure confirmed for the second quarter; lease-return claim directionally consistent; profit claims not observable | Neutral | Medium |

---

## Section 3: Detailed Sales Numbers

**Why it matters:** units sold times average price is a direct shadow of the vehicle revenue Penske will report for its U.S. stores. Penske bought and sold stores over the past year, and one large store group entered our data in full only this year, so same-store figures lead this section. This quarter they compare stores, identified from the seller records now carried in Compass, rather than zip codes.

### New vehicles

| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units, same stores | 41,508 | 43,343 | −4.2% | – |
| Units, all stores | 50,741 | 47,402 | +7.0% | 52,721 |
| Units, all stores excluding El Monte | 44,793 | 47,378 | −5.5% | 46,436 |
| Revenue in our data | $2.8B | $2.5B | +10.0% | $2.8B |
| Average transaction price | $54,548 | $53,346 | +2.3% | $54,748 |
| Sold days on site, mean | 44 | 51 | −7 days | 44 |
| Sold days on site, median | 31 | 33 | −2 days | 30 |
| Discount vs. sticker | −0.3% | −1.4% | +1.2 pp | −0.6% |

**El Monte.** Penske acquired Penske Motor Group, which owns the Longo Toyota and Lexus stores in El Monte, California, from a commonly controlled affiliate in November 2025, and restated its earlier results as though it had always owned them *(management's own disclosure)*. Our data captured only 24 new and 70 used sales at El Monte in the third quarter of 2025, against 5,948 and 1,037 this quarter, so the gain is our coverage switching on, not a purchase or a surge in demand. El Monte is 11.7% of Penske's new sales this quarter and adds 12.5 points to the all-store new change. Penske keeps these stores in its own same-store figures; we cannot, because our year-ago count is incomplete. In the seller records, the Longo Toyota and Longo Lexus websites first carry Penske sales on January 23, 2026, as do the other two Penske Motor Group stores, Lexus Stevens Creek in California and Longo Toyota of Prosper in Texas, so the store-level panel sets all four aside as stores first seen after July 2025. They are therefore left out of the year-over-year same-store panel and included in the comparison with the second quarter, when both periods are fully captured.

**Against the second quarter.** At stores open in both quarters, El Monte included, new sales fell 3.3% from the second quarter, against 2.3% for the market, and used sales fell 4.3%, against 1.8%.

**Momentum.** In the second quarter our same-store new figure grew 0.4% on the store-level panel, against the 2.8% U.S. same-store growth Penske reported, and 1.5 points ahead of a new market down 1.1%. This quarter the same measure is 1.2 points behind the market. Month by month, excluding El Monte, new sales were down 10.0% in July (market −7.0%), down 3.0% in August (market −2.4%) and down 3.2% in September (market +0.8%).

The average new price rose $1,202. Higher prices within the same brands added about $1,758, and a mix shift toward cheaper brands (more Toyota, fewer Audi and Mercedes-Benz) took away about $556.

### Used vehicles

| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units, same stores | 28,717 | 30,513 | −5.9% | – |
| Units, all stores | 31,769 | 32,219 | −1.4% | 33,357 |
| Units, all stores excluding El Monte | 30,732 | 32,149 | −4.4% | 32,388 |
| Revenue in our data | $1.1B | $1.0B | +8.0% | $1.1B |
| Average transaction price | $36,775 | $35,189 | +4.5% | $36,668 |
| Sold days on site, mean | 37 | 36 | +1 day | 35 |
| Sold days on site, median | 23 | 20 | +3 days | 19 |

*Revenue is the sum of captured selling prices. About 8.2% of used sales carried no price in our data this quarter and 12.4% a year ago, so part of the used revenue gain is more prices captured, not more dollars.*

Used sales, excluding El Monte, fell 3.8% in July, 4.3% in August and 5.1% in September, against a market down 7.5%, down 2.8% and up 0.5%. In the second quarter our same-store used figure fell 4.1% on the store-level panel while Penske reported U.S. same-store used units up 3.0%, the third quarter running in which our used measure read too low *(management's own disclosure)*.

**What drove the used price rise.** The used average transaction price rose $1,586, almost all of it within brands ($1,445) rather than from brand mix ($141). Penske sold younger cars: 43.6% were two model years old or newer, against 41.8% a year ago and 38.8% in the second quarter, and cars under $20,000 fell to 18.6% of used sales from 22.4%. The price gain is therefore partly a change in which cars sold, and we do not read it as pricing power.

**The used-to-new check.** Penske sold 0.626 used cars for every new car in our data, against 0.68 a year ago and 0.633 last quarter; El Monte's new-heavy mix lowers the all-store ratio.

**Same-store bridge.** This quarter's same-store figures compare stores, not zip codes. Using the seller records carried in Compass, each sale is tied to the website of the store that sold it, and a store counts as comparable when Penske had been selling through it since before July 1, 2025 and it was still selling in the quarter just ended: 129 stores, carrying 81.8% of Penske's new sales and 90.4% of its used sales this quarter. Eleven stores whose first Penske sales in our data came after that date contributed 9,196 new and 3,012 used units this quarter with no year-ago equivalent. Most of that is the four Penske Motor Group stores, Longo Toyota and Longo Lexus in El Monte, Lexus Stevens Creek and Longo Toyota of Prosper, first seen in January 2026 as our coverage switched on, and the two Florida Lexus stores Penske bought, Lexus of Winter Park and Lexus of Orlando, first seen in March 2026 and 2,079 units between them; California (8,228 units), Florida (2,079) and Texas (1,456) lead. Nine stores that sold a year ago but not this quarter carried 3,895 new and 1,588 used units in the year-ago quarter: Toyota of Pharr and Hyundai of Pharr in Texas, Lexus of Warwick in Rhode Island, Hyundai and Genesis of Noblesville in Indiana, Mercedes-Benz of Bedford in Ohio and Kearny Mesa Acura in California among them, consistent with the franchise sales Penske reported. One store, BMW of Tenafly in New Jersey, whose volume swung more than fourfold, was left out of both quarters. Two Porsche stores, Stevens Creek and Beachwood, changed website identifiers over the winter with a gap longer than our matching window and are counted once as departed and once as acquired; nine other re-platformed websites, including seven Porsche stores, were matched by seller name and kept as one store each. Penske reported buying two Lexus dealerships in the first half and selling four U.S. franchises *(management's own disclosure)*. Same-store differs from all-store excluding El Monte by 1.3 points on new and 1.5 points on used. *Store-level same-store approximation built from Compass seller identifiers, not the company's certified same-store comparison; stores acquired part-way through the year-ago quarter can add partial-period noise.*

### By state

*Each zip code is placed in the state where most of its sales are recorded. All stores, El Monte included.*

| State | New Q3 2026 | New Q3 2025 | New change vs. year ago | Used Q3 2026 | Used Q3 2025 | Used change vs. year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 15,121 | 9,896 | +52.8% | 5,549 | 4,476 | +24.0% |
| Texas | 7,090 | 8,277 | −14.3% | 3,614 | 3,798 | −4.8% |
| Florida | 5,693 | 4,735 | +20.2% | 3,356 | 2,655 | +26.4% |
| New Jersey | 4,691 | 4,970 | −5.6% | 2,567 | 2,741 | −6.4% |
| Arizona | 3,878 | 4,123 | −5.9% | 3,068 | 3,418 | −10.2% |
| Georgia | 3,365 | 2,947 | +14.2% | 2,446 | 2,829 | −13.5% |

California reflects El Monte, Florida the Orlando-area purchases and Texas the Pharr sale. Arizona and Georgia used fell with no store sale on record that explains them; we read these as patterns to raise with the company, not as regional demand *(our interpretation)*.

---

## Section 4: Top Brands Sold

**Why it matters:** Toyota is more than two-fifths of Penske's new sales in our data, and the luxury brands carry the highest prices.

### New

| Brand | Units | Units a year ago | Change vs. year ago | Average price | Sold days on site | Price vs. sticker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 22,087 | 18,891 | +16.9% | $43,504 | 28 | +0.3% |
| BMW | 5,843 | 5,937 | −1.6% | $77,721 | 64 | +0.5% |
| Honda | 5,765 | 5,876 | −1.9% | $38,582 | 41 | 0.0% |
| Lexus | 5,706 | 2,718 | +109.9% | $63,535 | 31 | +0.1% |
| Mercedes-Benz | 1,990 | 2,282 | −12.8% | $79,709 | 65 | +1.0% |
| Ford | 1,638 | 1,998 | −18.0% | $45,723 | 77 | −11.1% |
| Audi | 1,543 | 2,506 | −38.4% | $67,261 | 55 | −2.0% |
| Hyundai | 1,068 | 1,557 | −31.4% | $38,602 | 75 | −5.8% |
| Land Rover | 984 | 893 | +10.2% | $106,821 | 70 | +1.6% |
| Porsche | 784 | 851 | −7.9% | $146,972 | 76 | −1.2% |

Toyota and Lexus growth comes mostly from El Monte and the purchased Florida and Texas stores. BMW and Honda held close to a year ago. Audi fell hardest and still sold 2.0% below sticker, though closer than the 4.8% below of a year ago. Most brands sold closer to sticker than a year ago; Ford, Hyundai and Chevrolet sold further below.

### Used

| Brand | Units | Units a year ago | Change vs. year ago | Average price | Sold days on site |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 6,007 | 5,922 | +1.4% | $29,866 | 27 |
| BMW | 4,762 | 4,888 | −2.6% | $46,598 | 49 |
| Honda | 3,288 | 3,479 | −5.5% | $26,272 | 27 |
| Lexus | 2,127 | 1,081 | +96.8% | $43,055 | 34 |
| Mercedes-Benz | 1,887 | 2,134 | −11.6% | $46,494 | 52 |
| Audi | 1,623 | 1,651 | −1.7% | $36,545 | 47 |
| Ford | 1,189 | 1,364 | −12.8% | $28,905 | 30 |
| Chevrolet | 1,044 | 1,220 | −14.4% | $29,977 | 31 |
| Nissan | 1,028 | 1,010 | +1.8% | $21,124 | 36 |
| Porsche | 1,010 | 1,055 | −4.3% | $90,982 | 55 |

The domestic brands fell most on used, and German luxury used cars took longest to sell on the days-on-site clock (BMW 49 days, Mercedes-Benz 52, Porsche 55).

---

## Section 5: What's Sitting on the Lots (Inventory)

*Compass inventory snapshot, September 30, 2026. Aging is measured on the days-on-site clock, the days a car has been listed by the store selling it (Section 7a). Used figures exclude cars listed more than 180 days at the same store, an interim rule for service loaners (Section 12); new figures are unfiltered.*

**Why it matters:** a car that sits costs the dealer interest every day, and its eventual selling price tends to drift down. A growing pile of older stock is tomorrow's clearance problem.

| Measure | New, Sep 30 2026 | New, Sep 30 2025 | Used, Sep 30 2026 | Used, Sep 30 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active units | 30,306 | 28,509 | 12,992 | 10,929 |
| Average list price | $60,811 | $57,628 | $40,052 | $40,243 |
| Active days on site, mean | 60 | 58 | 38 | 32 |
| Active days on site, median | 34 | 33 | 28 | 22 |
| Share of stock over 90 days on site | 21.7% | 20.7% | 9.6% | 6.9% |

**Used: bigger and older.** Active used units rose 18.9% from a year ago (2,063 cars) and 0.5% from June. The share listed more than 90 days at its selling store rose to 9.6% from 7.3% in June and 6.9% a year ago, and the average car on the lot has been there 38 days against 32 a year ago. Luxury cars are 45.4% of used stock, and 12.2% of them had waited more than 90 days at the store, against 7.4% of mainstream used stock. The service-loaner exclusion takes most of its cars from the luxury brands: BMW, which held the largest aged used pool before it (2,585 cars), holds 1,893 cars after it, 14.4% of them over 90 days on site.

**New: stable, aging at the luxury end.** New active inventory rose 6.3% from a year ago and fell 0.9% from June. Toyota (7,189 cars, 4.1% over 90 days on site) and Lexus (2,700, 6.3%) turn quickly; Porsche (1,125, 55.5%), Audi (2,584, 32.6%) and BMW (5,210, 32.3%) carry most of the aged stock. The sport-utility share of stock is 60.0% on new, and 59.4% of new stock is priced above $50,000.

---

## Section 6: Price Position: Sticker, Asking Premium and Discounts

**Why it matters:** these measures show where Penske prices its cars against the sticker, against what its cars sell for, and against its own first asking price. None of them is a profit measure: they say nothing about what Penske paid for a car or earned on it.

**New, against sticker.** New cars sold 0.3% below the manufacturer's suggested retail price, against 1.4% a year ago and 0.6% last quarter. Franchise dealers overall moved from 3.4% to 3.2% below, so Penske gained 1.2 points while the market gained 0.2. Toyota (+0.3% against −1.1%), Honda, Lexus, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi all sold closer to or above sticker than a year ago; Ford, Hyundai and Chevrolet sold further below. In our data 75.0% of Penske's new cars sold at or above sticker, against 68.9% a year ago; this is an advertised-price measure and not the same as the 24% of new units Penske reported selling at sticker.

*Prices compared across the March–May 2026 period are affected by franchise dealers moving mandatory fees into advertised prices after Federal Trade Commission enforcement; part of any change is how prices are advertised rather than what buyers pay, and that part is not estimated. Comparisons with a year ago cross it.*

**Asking premium on unsold stock.** This compares the average list price of cars still for sale at September 30 with the average price of cars sold during the quarter. The two groups are different cars, so the trend and the split by class matter more than the level.

| Asking premium | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| New, all | 11.5% | 8.0% | +3.4 pp |
| New, luxury | 0.1% | −0.4% | +0.5 pp |
| New, mainstream | 4.4% | 2.7% | +1.7 pp |
| Used, all | 8.9% | 14.4% | −5.5 pp |
| Used, luxury | 7.9% | 16.4% | −8.5 pp |
| Used, mainstream | 7.6% | 11.5% | −3.9 pp |

The new premium sits above our 10% watch line, but within each class it is small: luxury new stock is listed at almost exactly what luxury new cars sold for. The gap is mix. Luxury cars are 50.2% of new stock but 34.6% of new sales. We do not read it as markdown risk. The used premium, measured on the lot after the service-loaner exclusion, is below the watch line and narrowed in both classes.

**Discount from first listed price.** This compares each sold car's final price with the first price MarketCheck saw on its listing.

| Used, discount from first listed price | Penske Q3 2026 | Penske Q3 2025 | Penske Q2 2026 | Franchise market Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of cars discounted | 60.8% | 61.0% | 55.5% | 59.4% |
| Share sold above first ask | 11.9% | 4.0% | 14.4% | 9.5% |
| Depth when discounted | −7.2% | −7.2% | −6.2% | −6.9% |
| Average discount per car | −2.1% | −4.2% | −2.4% | −2.8% |
| Discount on total asking value | −4.2% | −4.8% | −3.2% | −3.8% |
| Median | −1.6% | −1.8% | −0.5% | −1.6% |

The same share of Penske's used cars came off their first asking price as a year ago (60.8% against 61.0%), and the cuts were as deep (−7.2% against −7.2%). The narrower average discount comes from more cars ending above their first ask: 11.9% against 4.0%. Franchise dealers show the same pattern on a smaller scale (9.5% against 6.2%), which fits dealers adding fees to advertised prices after listing *(our interpretation)*. The discount on total asking value, −4.2%, is wider than the per-car figure, so the cuts are concentrated in the more expensive cars. Month by month the average discount deepened: −1.5% in July, −1.9% in August and −3.1% in September. On new cars, the average discount from first ask was −0.4%, against −0.7% a year ago and −1.8% for franchise dealers.

### Section 6d: Listing Price Position (used)

Listing Price Position compares each used car's opening asking price with MarketCheck Price, MarketCheck's model estimate of the car's market value. A ratio of 1.00 means listed at our estimate of market value; 0.95 means 5% below.

| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median ratio | 1.0 | 1.0 | −0.001 |
| Position vs franchise dealers (listing-day) | +0.008 | +0.006 | −0.002 |
| Position, all listings | +0.001 | −0.001 | −0.002 |
| Listed below 0.95 | 10.8% | 8.5% | −2.3 pp |
| Listed 0.95–1.05 | 49.8% | 54.0% | +4.2 pp |
| Listed above 1.05 | 39.4% | 37.5% | −1.9 pp |
| Franchise dealers: listed below 0.95 | 13.4% | 11.4% | −2.0 pp |
| Sold within 30 days on site | 63.5% | 57.8% | −5.7 pp |
| Franchise dealers: sold within 30 days on site | 62.0% | 55.8% | −6.2 pp |

*Sold within 30 days on site counts used listings started at their selling store through September 3 in each quarter, on the days-on-site clock: a listing counts as sold when it sold with 30 or fewer days on site, and as not sold when it reached a 31st day on site (Section 12). Comparator: all franchise dealers. The year-ago quarter is missing MarketCheck Price for July 1–4, 2025. The year-over-year comparison crosses the March–May 2026 fee-inclusion shift.*

Penske opens its used listings slightly above the franchise median, as it did a year ago. Its cars still sold within 30 days on site a little more often than franchise dealers' cars, and that rate fell by less than the franchise rate (5.7 points against 6.2). This section is descriptive and does not feed the signal.

### Section 6e: Selling Margin Pressure (used)

Selling Margin Pressure measures markdowns beyond the usual on cars that took longer than usual to sell. For each price band and vehicle age, Penske's own previous 12 months set the usual time to sell and the usual markdown on cars that sold on time. A car counts when it took longer than usual and was marked down by more than usual; the excess, in dollars, is averaged over all used cars sold.

| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Selling Margin Pressure, per used car sold | $1,435 | $1,368 | −$66 |
| Sold later than usual | 49.5% | 51.4% | +1.9 pp |
| Sold later than usual and marked down beyond the usual allowance | 43.1% | 41.5% | −1.6 pp |
| Franchise dealers: Selling Margin Pressure, per used car sold | $1,047 | $1,050 | +$3 |

*Used retail sales with a first asking price on record and a sale price between half and one and a half times it. The usual time to sell and the usual markdown come from each seller's own previous 12 months, by price band and vehicle age. Comparator: franchise dealers. The year-over-year comparison crosses the March–May 2026 fee-inclusion shift.*

Penske's Selling Margin Pressure was $1,368 per used car sold, down $66 from a year ago, against a rise of $3 for franchise dealers. Against the second quarter it rose from $1,091, as the market's did ($805 to $1,050). This describes selling behavior only. What Penske paid for its cars and spent reconditioning them are not in our data, so the measure is not a gross profit figure and does not feed the signal.

---

## Section 7: Days to Sell and Market Days Supply

### 7a: Days on Site and Days on Market (how long each car takes)

Two clocks run on every car in our data. **Days on site** counts only the days at the current selling store or website and restarts whenever the car moves; it is the clock a store manages its own pricing and markdowns against, and it is the aging measure this report leads with in every section. **Days on market** counts from the first day the car was advertised anywhere and keeps counting if the car moves to another store or another website; it is the listing's full exposure to the market, and it is analyzed here and only here. Both are shown for cars sold during the quarter and for cars still unsold on September 30.

| Measure | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sold days on site, new, mean | 44 | 51 | −7 days | 44 |
| Sold days on site, new, median | 31 | 33 | −2 days | 30 |
| Sold days on market, new, mean | 48 | 55 | −6 days | 47 |
| Sold days on market, new, median | 34 | 35 | −1 day | 32 |
| Sold days on site, used, mean | 37 | 36 | +1 day | 35 |
| Sold days on site, used, median | 23 | 20 | +3 days | 19 |
| Sold days on market, used, mean | 42 | 39 | +3 days | 39 |
| Sold days on market, used, median | 24 | 21 | +3 days | 20 |
| Active days on site, new, mean | 60 | 58 | +2 days | 57 |
| Active days on site, new, median | 34 | 33 | +1 day | 33 |
| Active days on market, new, mean | 64 | 61 | +3 days | 61 |
| Active days on market, new, median | 36 | 35 | +1 day | 37 |
| Active days on site, used, mean | 38 | 32 | +6 days | 34 |
| Active days on site, used, median | 28 | 22 | +6 days | 25 |
| Active days on market, used, mean | 45 | 38 | +7 days | 42 |
| Active days on market, used, median | 29 | 24 | +5 days | 26 |

On the days-on-site clock, new cars that sold were seven days younger than a year ago (44 against 51), helped by the fast-turning Toyota and Lexus mix, and level with June. Used cars that sold were one day older on site than a year ago, and the typical used car three days older (23 against 20). The unsold new stock is two days older on site than a year ago and three days older than in June; the unsold used stock, after setting aside the cars listed more than 180 days at the same store (Section 12), is six days older than a year ago and four days older than in June, with the median up by the same six days, so the whole used lot aged rather than only its tail. The days-on-market rows tell the same story with larger numbers: new cars sold six days faster than a year ago, used cars three days slower, and the unsold used stock aged seven days over the year.

**What the gap between the two clocks tells us.** Days on site runs below days on market by about four days on new cars sold and five on used, and 13.7% of the new and 13.2% of the used cars Penske sold this quarter were younger on their selling site than on the market; the shares have barely moved from a year ago (13.0% and 13.8%). That is the narrow end of the range among the eight dealer groups we cover: Lithia, which advertises its cars on a national website as well as its store sites, shows the widest gap, and Carvana, which sells through one website, almost none. Penske has no central sales website in our data; a group-level site carried 1.3% of its units this quarter and is treated as a store. Movement between Penske's own stores explains little of the gap: only 0.1% of new and 0.5% of used sales were followed by the same car reappearing at another Penske store within 60 days, and only 0.0% of the new and 0.2% of the used cars on its lots at September 30 had changed selling store within their listing. Instead, 8.8% of the new and 12.9% of the used cars on the lots were younger on site than on the market from the first day we observed them, which is what a car that was advertised elsewhere before it reached the Penske store would look like, whether from another dealer's lot, a dealer trade or a wholesale purchase that had been listed at retail *(our interpretation)*. The brand with the widest gap is Audi on new cars, 88 days on market against 55 on site; Compass cannot tell us where those cars were listed before, and we have not confirmed the reading. For every other brand the two clocks sit within a few days of each other, so for Penske the choice of clock changes the level of its aging figures by a few days and changes none of the year-over-year readings.

### 7b: Market Days Supply (how long the whole lot would last)

Market Days Supply divides the cars on hand at September 30 by the average number sold per day in the 45 days ending that day (August 17 to September 30).

| Market Days Supply | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New | 53 | 55 | −2 days | 52 |
| Used | 38 | 31 | +6 days | 34 |

New Market Days Supply of 53 sits inside the typical range for franchise dealers (46 to 80 days) and is 2 days below a year ago. Used Market Days Supply of 38 sits at the top of its typical range (27 to 40 days), up from 31 a year ago and 34 in June. It rose because used stock grew 19% while used sales fell. Used stock here excludes cars listed more than 180 days at the same store (Section 12); on the unfiltered lot the figure would be 43, above the typical range and the highest of the 15 quarters in our data for Penske, which is how the earlier draft of this report read it.

*New-vehicle Market Days Supply counts every advertised unit, including units advertised before they reach the dealership; company-reported figures count stock on the lot and are not directly comparable.*

**Against management's figures.** At June 30 Penske reported 51 days of new supply and 44 days of used *(management's own disclosure)*. Our Market Days Supply figures at June 30 were 52 for new, 102% of the company's figure, and 34 for used after the service-loaner exclusion (38 before it), 78% of the company's figure (86% before the exclusion). Management's figures use a one-month selling rate and count stock on the lot, and we do not know whether its used count includes service loaners; Section 12 sets out the difference.

**Coherence check.** Sold days on site divided by Market Days Supply is 84% for new and 86% for used, against the ranges in which the two normally sit, 62% to 100% for new and 76% to 114% for used, derived on sold days on site over complete quarters since 2023; both sit inside their ranges. The used ratio is taken on the unfiltered lot (Market Days Supply 43 rather than 38), because the service-loaner exclusion does not enter benchmark comparisons. On the days-on-market clock the ratios are 91% for new and 97% for used against ranges of 69% to 108% and 82% to 124%, inside their ranges, so the inventory and sales figures agree with each other on both clocks.

**Against franchise dealers, brand by brand.** Each figure shows Penske's Market Days Supply for a brand as a percentage of the Market Days Supply of all franchise dealers for the same brand at the same date. 100% means Penske is in line with franchise dealers of the same makes; below 100% means it carries less supply than they do.

| Brand | New: Penske | New: franchise benchmark | New % of franchise benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 28 | 32 | 89% |
| BMW | 81 | 88 | 92% |
| Honda | 48 | 50 | 94% |
| Lexus | 42 | 39 | 107% |
| Audi | 132 | 138 | 96% |
| Mercedes-Benz | 86 | 116 | 74% |
| Porsche | 126 | 134 | 94% |
| Land Rover | 102 | 102 | 100% |

| Brand | Used: Penske | Used: franchise benchmark | Used % of franchise benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 35 | 49 | 73% |
| Toyota | 29 | 40 | 72% |
| Honda | 36 | 40 | 89% |
| Audi | 49 | 52 | 94% |
| Mercedes-Benz | 40 | 52 | 77% |
| Lexus | 33 | 39 | 84% |
| Porsche | 40 | 68 | 59% |
| Chevrolet | 47 | 50 | 93% |

On new cars Penske carries less supply than franchise dealers in six of its eight largest brands, most clearly Mercedes-Benz and Toyota, and is in line in Land Rover. On used it carries less than franchise dealers in every one of its eight largest brands once service loaners are set aside; the used figures exclude the same long-listed cars as the rest of the used inventory, while the franchise benchmark does not, so the comparison flatters Penske by the size of its loaner fleet. Before the exclusion, Audi (116%) was the one brand above the benchmark and BMW (99%) was in line.

---

## Section 8: Electric Vehicle Sales

**Why it matters:** the federal electric-vehicle purchase credit ended on September 30, 2025, so buyers pulled purchases into the year-ago quarter. Year-over-year comparisons are against an inflated base. Penske has not discussed North American electric-vehicle sales on its recent calls, so this section is context and does not feed the signal.

| Battery-electric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| New count | 1,487 | 3,487 | −57.4% |
| New share of new sales | 2.9% | 7.4% | −4.4 pp |
| New average days to sell | 73 | 105 | −33 days |
| Used count | 1,500 | 1,178 | +27.3% |
| Used share of used sales | 4.7% | 3.7% | +1.1 pp |
| Used average days to sell | 37 | 52 | −15 days |

*Days to sell in this section are on the days-on-market clock (Section 7a).*

New fully electric sales fell a little faster than the market's 52.6%, and Penske's share of the market's new battery-electric sales slipped from 1.4% to 1.2%. BMW (453) and Toyota (342) led its new electric sales. Used fully electric sales rose 27.3% against 11.5% for the market, led by BMW (583) and Tesla (201).

**Hybrids.** Hybrids of all kinds were 49.1% of Penske's new sales in our data, and full hybrids alone 32.6%. Full hybrids sold in 30 days on average, against 51 days for gasoline cars.

---

## Section 9: The Positive Case

New pricing is firm. Penske's new cars sold 0.3% below sticker, 1.2 points closer than a year ago, while franchise dealers moved 0.2 points. Within luxury, new stock is listed at what luxury new cars sell for, so there is no sign of a markdown overhang in the new lot.

New stock is well run. New Market Days Supply of 53 is inside the typical range and 2 days below a year ago, new cars sold seven days faster on site than a year ago, and Penske carries less supply than franchise dealers in Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, Honda, BMW, Audi and Porsche.

Our used count is more likely too low than too high. In the second quarter our same-store used figure read 7.1 points below the company's, and our new figure 2.4 points below *(our interpretation)*.

The used build fits management's plan. Penske expected rising lease returns, and the used cars it sold were younger: 43.6% were two model years old or newer, against 38.8% in the second quarter. Once service loaners are set aside, used Market Days Supply sits inside the typical range, and Toyota, its largest used brand, carries far less used supply than franchise dealers (72% of the franchise benchmark).

---

## Section 10: The Negative Case

The new-car lead is gone. Our same-store new figure went from 1.5 points ahead of the market in the second quarter to 1.2 points behind. Excluding El Monte, new sales fell in every month of the quarter.

The used lot grew much faster than used sales. Used stock rose 18.9% from a year ago while used sales fell, used Market Days Supply rose to 38, the top of the typical range, and the share of used stock over 90 days on site rose to 9.6% from 6.9%, with the average unsold used car six days older on site than a year ago.

The aged stock sits in the expensive brands. 12.2% of luxury used stock and 55.5% of new Porsche stock had waited more than 90 days at the store selling them, against 7.4% of mainstream used stock. The used discount from first ask deepened each month of the quarter. Our data cannot say what this does to used profit per car.

---

## Section 11A: Did Management Get It Right Last Quarter?

*Sources: Penske Automotive Group Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (July 29, 2026) and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (quarterly report).* "Fact" claims describe the prior quarter; "Guidance" claims describe this one.

| What management said | Claim type | What our data shows | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| New vehicle inventory at a 51-day supply at June 30 (58 days premium, 28 volume foreign) | Fact | Our new Market Days Supply at June 30 was 52, 102% of the company's figure; logged | **Logged** |
| Used vehicle inventory at a 44-day supply at June 30 | Fact | Our used Market Days Supply at June 30 was 34 after the service-loaner exclusion (38 before it), 78% (86%) of the company's figure; logged | **Logged** (our figure runs below the company's) |
| U.S. same-store new and used units up 3%; same-store new up 3.7% company-wide (U.S. new +2.8% in the 10-Q) | Fact | Our second-quarter same-store new +0.4%, used −4.1% on the store-level panel (+3.7% and −2.8% on the zip-code panel used in the earlier draft) | **Confirmed** on new by direction only; **not confirmed** on used |
| Lease returns rising through 2026 and 2027 (Audi about 4,600 this year, 58% in the second half); certified pre-owned 42% of used sales | Fact + Guidance | Used stock +18.9% from a year ago after the service-loaner exclusion; cars two model years old or newer 43.6% of used sales, against 38.8% in the second quarter | **Directionally consistent** |
| 24% of new units sold at sticker, consistent with the first quarter | Fact | Our advertised-price measure: 75.0% at or above sticker, against 74.5% in the second quarter; different basis | **Not observable** on a matching basis |
| Two Lexus dealerships acquired, about $450 million of annualized revenue | Fact | Lexus of Winter Park and Lexus of Orlando, first seen in our data in March 2026, sold 2,079 cars this quarter | **Consistent** *(our interpretation)* |
| New gross profit per car $4,782 and used $2,095; grosses "remain strong" | Fact + Guidance | Profit per car is not in our data | **Not observable** |

Our new-car measure ran 2.4 points below the company in the second quarter on the store-level panel and the used measure 7.1 points below, both in the same direction, which is why the new slowdown this quarter carries medium weight and the used volume reading little.

---

## Section 11B: What to Watch on the Earnings Call

1. **Same-store new units.** Our same-store new sales went from 0.4% growth in the second quarter to a 4.2% decline, in a market down 3.0%. What was Penske's U.S. same-store new change, and how did volume foreign and premium brands compare?

2. **The used build.** Used stock rose 18.9% from a year ago and used Market Days Supply rose to 38, with 9.6% of used stock over 90 days on site, after setting aside 1,678 cars listed more than 180 days at the same store as service loaners. How much of the build is lease returns, does the company's 44-day used supply figure count its loaner fleet, and what happened to used gross profit per car, which our data cannot measure?

3. **Luxury aging.** 55.5% of new Porsche stock and 32.6% of new Audi stock had waited more than 90 days at the store selling them. Is manufacturer support keeping pace with the aged luxury stock?

4. **Portfolio.** Which stores were bought and sold in the third quarter, and is Tenafly, New Jersey, among them? Its sales fell from 413 in the second quarter to 9 in our data.

5. **New pricing.** Our data shows new cars selling closer to sticker than a year ago. Did the share of new units sold at sticker hold near the 24% reported for the second quarter?

---

## Section 11C: Post-Print Accuracy Summary (Penske Q3 2026 Results, October 28, 2026)

**What this section is:** This section was added after Penske Automotive Group reported Q3 2026 results on October 28, 2026. Penske held no earnings call for the quarter, citing its pending take-private by Motown Acquisition Corp., an entity owned by Penske Corporation and Mitsui & Co., announced on October 15, 2026; the earnings release is the only company source. Everything above this section is the report as written, unchanged.

**Scorecard:** Of 31 vehicle-transaction calls that could be tested against what Penske reported, 20 were confirmed, 10 were partly right and 1 was missed. Another 10 could not be tested: with no call there was no management commentary to answer our watch items, and the release gives no figures for electric vehicles, lease returns, the share of new cars sold at sticker, discounts or individual states. Penske’s release also gives unit figures worldwide only, with no U.S. split, so every unit comparison below is against a worldwide figure. The Neutral verdict was right: worldwide new retail units fell 1.1%, used retail units rose 2.1% and new and used vehicle revenue rose 1.8% to $5.6 billion. Profit per car softened on both sides, with new gross profit per unit (GPU) down 2.5% to $4,524 and used GPU down 6.6% to $1,946. Total revenue rose 4.5% to $8.4 billion and earnings per share (EPS) were $3.36 against $3.41 a year earlier, including $0.07 a share of take-private costs; commercial trucks, service, finance and insurance and the international business, which sit outside vehicle transactions in the United States, drove much of that result.

| Metric | Our Call (October 21) | Penske Reported (October 28) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Composite signal | Neutral / Medium; profit per car and businesses outside our data could move it a tier | Flat quarter with softer margins: new units −1.1%, used +2.1%, new GPU −2.5%, used GPU −6.6% (worldwide) | **HIT** |
| Vehicle revenue | $3.8 billion in our data, +9.5%; +0.5% excluding the El Monte stores, which we did not read as growth | New and used vehicle revenue $5.6 billion, +1.8%; same-store +2.1% (worldwide) | **HIT** |
| New-car momentum | Cautiously Bearish; same-store new −4.2% against the market’s −3.0%, the second-quarter lead gone | Same-store new retail units −1.2%, from +3.7% in the second quarter (worldwide) | **HIT** |
| Used units, same-store | −5.9% in our data; low weight, flagged as likely reading too low | Same-store used retail units +3.8% (worldwide) | **PARTIAL** |
| New pricing power | Cautiously Bullish; new cars 0.3% below sticker against 1.4% a year ago | Revenue per new car +1.7%, but new GPU −2.5% to $4,524 and new gross margin 8.4% from 8.7% | **PARTIAL** |
| Used average price | $36,775, +4.5%, read as mix rather than pricing power | Revenue per used car $41,358, +1.5%; same-store +0.9% | **PARTIAL** |
| New inventory | Well run; new Market Days Supply 53, inside its typical range and below a year ago | New days’ supply 49, from 51 in June and 49 at December 31 | **HIT** |
| Used inventory (negative case) | Used lot outgrew used sales; stock +18.9%, used Market Days Supply up to 38 | Used retail units +2.1% (same-store +3.8%); used days’ supply 44, level with June | **MISS** |
| Used profit per car (negative case) | Aged stock in expensive brands and a deepening used discount; profit effect not measurable in our data | Used GPU −6.6% to $1,946, $149 below the second quarter; used gross margin 4.7% from 5.1% | **HIT** |
| Toyota’s weight in the mix | Neutral; Toyota 43.5% of new units in our data | Toyota 14% of retail automotive revenue against 13%; Lexus 7% against 5% | **PARTIAL** |

**What we got right:** The quarter was flat and the composite said so. The call that carried the most weight held: Penske’s new-car lead over the market faded, with same-store new units going from up 3.7% in the second quarter to down 1.2%, a swing of 4.9 points against 4.6 in our data. New supply was disciplined, as called: Penske’s own new days’ supply eased to 49 from 51 in June. The report did not read the headline growth in our data as demand, because the Longo Toyota and Lexus stores in El Monte, California entered our data in full only in early 2026; Penske counts those stores in both years too. The report also warned that our used volume reads low, and it did again. Finally, the negative case raised used profit per car as a question rather than a call, and used GPU fell 6.6%.

**What we missed and why:** One call was wrong: the negative case said the used lot had grown much faster than used sales. Penske’s used retail units rose 2.1% and its own used days’ supply held at 44, level with June. Our used Market Days Supply rose because it divides used stock by our used sales count, the very figure the report had said reads low; it should have been read against Penske’s own days’ supply history. The used inventory lens leaned bearish for the same reason, though used profit did come under pressure. On new pricing, a narrower gap to sticker was read as pricing strength; prices did hold, with revenue per new car up 1.7%, but new GPU and new gross margin fell. Our price is the advertised price, which from spring 2026 began to include dealer fees after Federal Trade Commission (FTC) enforcement, a step of about 1.1 points on the new price-to-sticker ratio; that note should have sat beside the summary price figures, not only in Section 6. Separately, our data overstated Toyota’s weight in Penske’s new sales: the Neutral brand reading held, but its premise did not.

**Bottom line:** Read this report for the flat quarter, the fading new-car lead and new supply, which held up. Treat its used inventory read and its new-pricing read with caution, read our Penske used unit counts and Toyota weighting only beside the company’s own figures, and keep in mind that Penske reports units worldwide only.

---

## Section 12: Methodology and Glossary

### Where the data comes from

**Primary data source:** MarketCheck Compass parquet files were the primary data source: North American new and used retail sales and the daily inventory panel, filtered to Penske Automotive Group's dealer-group ticker. Sales cover July–September 2026 (current quarter), April–June 2026 (prior quarter) and July–September 2025 (year-ago quarter). The inventory snapshot is September 30, 2026, the true quarter-end; the data run through at least October 9, 2026. Every Penske sales record in our data is in the United States or Puerto Rico.

**Compass totals, Q3 2026:** new 50,741 units and $2.8B; used 31,769 units and $1.1B; combined $3.8B.

*Average Transaction Price (ATP) is the average of the last listed price on each sold vehicle: the final advertised price when the listing closed. It is not an out-the-door price: it excludes dealer fees, Finance & Insurance (F&I) products, trade-in equity, taxes and registration, and any incentive applied at the point of sale off the advertised price.*

**Revenue basis.** Revenue is the sum of captured selling prices and is not units times average price. The share of used sales without a captured price was 12.4% in Q3 2025, 10.5% in Q2 2026 and 8.2% in Q3 2026 (new: about 1.4% or less in each).

**Basis line.** Inventory basis: Compass panel for unit counts, list prices and Market Days Supply. Aging basis: days on site leads every aging figure in this report (Sections 3, 4, 5, 6d, 9, 10 and 11); days on market is shown and analyzed in Section 7a only. Days on site: the Compass site counter, re-anchored at each observed reset. Sold and active days on market: measured from the opportunity start date. The over-90-day shares count cars with more than 90 days on site at the snapshot; on the days-on-market clock the same shares are 23.6% new and 12.3% used at September 30 (21.9% and 9.8% a year ago). Market Days Supply: cars on hand on the last day of the quarter divided by the average number sold per day in the 45 calendar days to quarter-end (ds_denominator = t45); benchmarks and baselines installed October 19, 2026. Management's days-of-supply figures use a one-month selling rate and count stock on the lot; ours uses the 45 calendar days to quarter-end and every advertised unit. The two are compared directly, with that difference in mind. *New-vehicle Market Days Supply counts every advertised unit, including units advertised before they reach the dealership; company-reported figures count stock on the lot and are not directly comparable.*

**Market share denominator.** *Market share is computed against MarketCheck Compass-captured North American retail transactions for the same period, not against total US registrations or company-reported deliveries. Coverage of new-vehicle retail runs approximately 80–95% of the actual market and varies by brand, so these figures are a consistent relative measure across periods, not an absolute share of the true market.*

### What this signal is built on, and what it does not adjust for

Volume, revenue and share in this report are what MarketCheck captured, not the company's results. The direction stated is our reading of the transaction evidence, not a forecast of Penske's reported numbers.

**Coverage record.** Penske reports retail units only for the whole company, including the United Kingdom and its other international stores, so no U.S. unit count exists to divide ours by, and a coverage rate is not computable. As a bound, our captured U.S. vehicle revenue for the second quarter ($3.9 billion) equals 90.2% of all of Penske's U.S. retail automotive revenue ($4.4 billion), which also includes service and parts, finance and insurance, and fleet and wholesale sales. Those lines are 19.9% of revenue company-wide; if the U.S. mix were the same, our captured revenue would be about 1.1 times the company's U.S. vehicle revenue. That figure rests on an allocation assumption and is not a measured rate.

**Waiver disclosure 1: coverage likely above 1.00.** Our rules treat a coverage rate above 1.00 as a stop condition. Here the rate cannot be computed, and the bound above suggests our captured figures run above the company's U.S. vehicle sales. The analyst directed on October 12, 2026 that coverage be recorded as not computable and likely above 1.00, with this disclosure. Our unit and revenue levels should therefore be read as likely above Penske's reported U.S. figures; growth rates are less affected. The measured gap between our change and the company's in the second quarter is the better guide:

| Our change minus Penske's reported U.S. change, Q2 2026 | Our figure | Company | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| New units, same stores (store-level panel) | +0.4% | +2.8% | −2.4 points |
| Used units, same stores (store-level panel) | −4.1% | +3.0% | −7.1 points |
| New units, all stores excluding El Monte | +0.5% | +2.9% | −2.4 points |
| Used units, all stores excluding El Monte | −1.5% | +3.3% | −4.8 points |

On the zip-code panel used in the earlier draft of this report, our second-quarter same-store change was +3.7% for new and −2.8% for used, 0.9 points above and 5.8 points below the company. The store-level panel reads lower on both, so it is not yet shown to be the more accurate of the two; it is adopted because it compares what the company compares, stores, and because the gap it leaves runs in one direction.

**Same-store panel.** Stores are identified by the Compass seller website; the dealer identifier was not usable across years because its numbering changed in January 2026. A store is comparable when its first Penske sale in our data is on or before July 1, 2025 and it sold in the quarter just ended; stores first seen after that date are treated as acquired, stores with no sales this quarter as departed, and both are left out. Stores whose volume moved more than fourfold between the two quarters, with at least 150 units in one of them, are left out of both. Websites that changed identifier over the year were matched by seller name where the old and new records are within 45 days of each other, which kept seven re-platformed Porsche stores and two Mercedes-Benz stores as one store each; Porsche Stevens Creek and Porsche Beachwood changed identifier with a longer gap and are counted as one departed and one acquired store each, which does not move the comparable panel. El Monte (Longo Toyota and Lexus, Penske Motor Group) is in Penske's own same-store figures because the company restated its prior periods after a common-control acquisition; its websites first carry Penske sales in our data on January 23, 2026, so the panel sets them aside as acquired, and they are included in the quarter-over-quarter comparison, at the analyst's direction. The company's own same-store comparison is built store by store on its own ledger; our quarter-level rule approximates it.

### What our quality checks found

| Check | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Compass sales pull, three quarters | Complete | All periods pulled for new and used; distinct-vehicle counts |
| Quarterly volume range check | Pass | New 50,741 inside 34,900–63,300; used 31,769 inside 25,400–40,100; revenue $3.8B inside $2.6B–4.8B (Section 2 band, four quarters to June 30, 2026) |
| Active inventory stop check | Pass | New 30,306 inside 22,700–37,800; used 12,992 inside 9,300–17,700 after the service-loaner exclusion (14,735 before it) |
| Service-loaner exclusion (interim) | Applied | Used units listed more than 180 days at the same store set aside from every used inventory figure: 1,678 at September 30 (11.4% of the used lot), 1,481 at June 30 and 1,324 a year ago; new inventory not filtered (see below) |
| Market share range check | Pass | All four shares inside their ranges (used unit share 0.6% against 0.6–0.7%) |
| Market Days Supply and coherence | Pass with finding | New inside its typical range; used at the top of its typical range after the service-loaner exclusion (38) and above it before (43, the top of Penske's observed range); coherence on sold days on site 84% new, 86% used against the days-on-site ranges (62% to 100% new, 76% to 114% used, installed 2026-10-21), both inside; used ratio on the unfiltered Market Days Supply; days-on-market ratios 91% and 97%, inside their ranges |
| Data-edge check, new | Pass | Market-wide September new sales up 0.8% from a year ago; no edge inflation |
| Coverage rate | Waived | Not computable (company units are consolidated); bound suggests above 1.00; analyst direction and disclosure above |
| Same-store panel and divergence self-test | Pass | 129 comparable stores on the store-level panel; 11 acquired and 9 departed stores excluded, 1 unstable store excluded from both quarters; same-store and all-store excluding El Monte differ by 1.3 points (new) and 1.5 points (used); Q2 self-test −2.4 points new, −7.1 points used |
| Days-on-site basis (Terrence, October 20, 2026) | Applied | Days on site leads every aging figure outside Section 7a; over-90-day shares, sold within 30 days and the coherence numerator recomputed on the days-on-site clock; days-on-market values retained in the aggregates record |
| Store-level coverage map | Complete | Every store entering or leaving the panel checked against company disclosures: the four Penske Motor Group stores (El Monte, Stevens Creek, Prosper) are a coverage switch-on; Winter Park and Orlando acquired; Pharr, Noblesville, Warwick and Bedford departed; Tenafly unexplained |
| First listed price soundness check | Pass | All listing-start months March 2025 – September 2026 pass |
| Prior accuracy review | Complete | Penske Q2 2026 review read; its lessons applied: the store-level coverage map built before the panel, the company's common-control basis checked and the El Monte treatment stated, confidence capped at Medium where a quality check is breached, no coverage rate claimed without a denominator, profit squeeze removed as a scored lens, electric vehicles shown as context only |
| Prior earnings call review | Complete | Seven claims from the Q2 2026 call and 10-Q (Section 11A); management's new and used days of supply logged |
| Numeric lint | Pass | 0 failures; advisory precision warnings on stored rounding only |
| Spelling lint | Pass | US spelling |
| Compliance sweep | Pass | No discount-to-profit inference; no lean on unseen segments; same-store heads Section 3 with the acquired-store contribution and divergence self-test; coverage recorded as not computable with direction and waiver stated |

**Inventory snapshot date.** September 30, 2026, the true quarter-end; Compass inventory quarter-end: 30,306 new and 14,735 used, of which 12,992 used after the service-loaner exclusion.

**Days-on-site basis for sold within 30 days.** The Section 6d speed figure counts used listings started at their selling store between the first day of the quarter and September 3, so that every listing could be followed for 30 days before the data edge. A listing is sold within 30 days when its sale record carries 30 or fewer days on site, and not sold when the car reached a 31st day on site in the inventory panel; listings that disappeared unsold before day 31 are in neither count. The franchise comparator is built the same way over all franchise dealers. This cohort is not the listing-day cohort used for the price-position figures above it.

**Service-loaner exclusion (interim rule).** Dealers keep some cars for service customers to drive and advertise them while they do, and those cars should not count as stock for sale. Pending a company-wide definition of a service loaner, every used inventory figure in this report (units, list prices, aging, asking premium, Market Days Supply and the brand-level supply comparison) excludes cars that had been listed more than 180 days at the same store on the snapshot date, read from the days-on-site counter. At Penske the rule removes a large block: 1,678 used cars at September 30, 11.4% of the used lot, against 1,481 at June 30 and 1,324 a year ago, the largest share among the franchise dealer groups we cover. The cars set aside look more like a loaner fleet than aged stock: at September 30 they averaged 311 days on market and a $55,598 list price, 72.2% had under 10,000 miles, and the group as a whole averaged 21,666 miles; the largest block is at BMW, whose used stock falls from 2,585 cars to 1,893 after the exclusion. Readers who prefer the unfiltered lot should know that it is older and larger: active used units 14,735 against 12,992, Active DOM 75 days against 45, over-90-day share on site 19.9% against 9.6%, used Market Days Supply 43 against 38, and used asking premium 14.1% against 8.9%; the year-over-year direction of every used inventory reading is the same on both bases. New inventory is not filtered: the 2,010 new units over 180 days on site average 62 miles and 271 days on market and are aged stock, not loaners. Sold figures are unchanged.

**State notes.** Arizona and Georgia used sales fell more than 10% with no matching store sale on record. Same-rooftop continuity and MarketCheck coverage stability at those stores have not been independently checked.

**Listing Price Position.** Listing Price Position compares each used car's opening asking price with MarketCheck Price, MarketCheck's model estimate of the car's market value, at the listing's first recorded status change. It describes where the dealer set the price, not what the car sold for. This quarter's position (+0.006) sits inside Penske's observed range (−0.001 to +0.011).

**Directional read for grading.** Penske's used listing position against franchise dealers moved by −0.002, from +0.008 to +0.006. Under the grading rule, that is logged as no directional read for used gross profit per car. It is recorded for the post-earnings accuracy review only and does not feed the signal.

**Lenses.** Selling Margin Pressure (Section 6e) is descriptive and does not feed the signal. Electric-vehicle tracking is shown as context only because Penske gives no North American electric-vehicle disclosure to grade it against. Brand equity is applied to Toyota, which is more than two-fifths of new sales. Overhead is outside our data; management guided to overhead in the low 70s as a share of gross profit, so we take no view.

### What we cannot see

Outside MarketCheck's scope for Penske: Finance & Insurance income; parts, service and collision work; Penske International (the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Japan and Australia, including agency sales); Premier Truck Group commercial trucks; Penske Transportation Solutions; wholesale and auction sales; gross profit per vehicle; floor-plan interest and overhead; and fleet sales not advertised at retail.

**Sources of figures.** Every figure in this report comes from MarketCheck data unless the text names another source, such as a company filing or management's comments on its earnings call. Only figures from those other sources carry a source label.

### Plain-English Glossary

| Term | What it means |
|---|---|
| ATP (Average Transaction Price) | Average Transaction Price (ATP) is the average of the last listed price on each sold vehicle: the final advertised price when the listing closed. It is not an out-the-door price: it excludes dealer fees, Finance & Insurance (F&I) products, trade-in equity, taxes and registration, and any incentive applied at the point of sale off the advertised price. |
| Asking premium | How far the average list price of unsold cars sits above the average price of cars sold in the quarter |
| Battery-electric | A fully electric car, with no gasoline engine |
| Common control | When the buyer and seller of a business share the same owner; Penske restated its past results to include Penske Motor Group |
| Coverage rate | Our captured count divided by the count the company reports |
| Days on Market (DOM) | Within a single sales opportunity spell, it is the number of days a vehicle has been listed for sale anywhere, counted from its first appearance in Compass and carried across dealers, so it survives a transfer or a dealer trade. Reported as Active DOM (mean age of vehicles on the lot at quarter end) and Sold DOM (mean age at sale). It measures the vehicle’s full exposure to the market, which is what drives depreciation and floorplan cost. |
| Days on Site (DOS) | Within a single sales opportunity spell, it is the number of days a vehicle has been listed by its current selling store, restarting at zero when a vehicle moves to a new store or appears on a new selling channel. DOS reflects the clock the store itself manages against. It is the better measure of a dealer’s own pricing and markdown discipline. Where DOS runs well below DOM, the difference indicates inventory that reached the current seller or channel after time elsewhere. For groups that syndicate inventory through a central website, the gap may reflect the channel rather than physical transfers between stores. |
| Discount from first listed price | How far a sold car's final price was below the first price we saw on its listing |
| El Monte | The Longo Toyota and Lexus stores in El Monte, California, owned through Penske Motor Group |
| F&I (Finance & Insurance) | Income dealers earn arranging loans, warranties and insurance when a car is sold |
| Gross profit per car | What a dealer earns on a car before overhead; the industry calls it GPU (gross profit per unit) |
| Lease return | A car coming back to the dealer at the end of a lease, often resold as certified pre-owned |
| Listing Price Position | Where a dealer sets a used car's first asking price relative to our estimate of its market value |
| Market Days Supply | How many days the stock on the last day of the quarter would last at the average daily selling rate of the 45 days ending that day. A property of the whole inventory, not of any one vehicle. Not the same as days on market. |
| MarketCheck Price | MarketCheck's model estimate of a vehicle's market value, retrained weekly on the past three months of the market |
| MSRP (Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price) | The sticker price the carmaker recommends |
| pp (percentage points) | The difference between two percentages: 5% to 7% is +2 pp |
| Same-store | Comparing only the stores Penske owned through both periods, so store purchases and sales do not distort growth |
| Service loaner (interim rule) | A car a dealer keeps for service customers to drive while their own is repaired; in this report, any used car listed more than 180 days at the same store, until a company-wide definition is set |
| Selling Margin Pressure | The average markdown, in dollars per used car sold, beyond a seller's usual allowance on cars that took longer than usual to sell, measured against the seller's own previous 12 months; it describes selling behavior, not profit |
| Sold days on market | See Days on Market (DOM): the mean age at sale of the cars sold in the quarter |
| Sold within 30 days on site | Share of listings at a selling store that sold with 30 or fewer days on site, counted only for listings we could follow for a full 30 days |
| Used-to-new ratio | Used cars sold for every new car sold |
| YoY (year over year) | This quarter against the same quarter a year earlier |
| (our interpretation) | A conclusion we drew from the data: reasonable, not certain |
| (management's own disclosure) | Something Penske's executives said or filed publicly |
| (our educated guess) | A plausible explanation that fits the data but that we cannot confirm |

*Prepared by MarketCheck Research using the Anthropic Claude LLM. This report describes North American retail vehicle transaction activity only and is not investment advice.*

We welcome your feedback. To offer comments, suggestions for future coverage, or to inquire about licensing this report or the MarketCheck data behind it, including vehicle-level sales, inventory and pricing data, contact Bryant Sheehy at [bryant.sheehy@marketcheck.com](mailto:bryant.sheehy@marketcheck.com).

**IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES**

**Not investment advice.** This report is published by MarketCheck for informational purposes only. Nothing in this report constitutes investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. The report expresses analytical observations about vehicle-market data as of the dates indicated; it is not a recommendation to take any action with respect to any company or security mentioned.

**Impersonal and general.** This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any reader. It is written for a professional and institutional audience and assumes familiarity with securities analysis; no part of it is tailored to, or intended as advice for, any individual reader. Readers should consult their own financial, legal, and tax advisers before making any investment decision.

**No registration.** MarketCheck is a data and analytics company. It is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer, and no advisory, fiduciary, or client relationship is created by reading this report.

**Purpose and commercial relationships.** MarketCheck provides data, software, and services to participants in the automotive industry, which may include companies covered in this report or their affiliates and franchised dealers.

**Positions.** MarketCheck and its personnel may establish, change, or close positions, long or short, in any company or security covered in this report at any time, including before or after publication of any report, without notice.

**Data and estimates.** This report is based on MarketCheck's Compass transaction database and related sources that MarketCheck believes to be reliable but does not guarantee to be complete or accurate. MarketCheck data typically captures a substantial portion (not the entirety) of covered companies' retail vehicle transactions, and coverage rates vary by company and period; figures derived from it are estimates, are not audited, and may differ materially from figures subsequently reported by the companies themselves. Signals and scenarios describe probabilistic readings of channel data, not predictions of earnings results or securities prices. Past accuracy of the report series is no guarantee of future accuracy. The specific data scope, coverage rate, and out-of-scope segments for the company covered in this report are described in the scope notice at the front of this report and in the Methodology section.

**Use of artificial intelligence.** This report was prepared with the assistance of a large language model (Anthropic's Claude), operating on MarketCheck's proprietary data under analyst direction and subject to a documented methodology, reconciliation checks, and human review. AI-assisted analysis may contain errors, and no figure or conclusion herein should be relied upon without independent verification.

**No warranty; limitation of liability.** This report is provided "as is." MarketCheck disclaims all warranties, express or implied, and accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of, or reliance on, this report. © MarketCheck. This report is licensed for the purchaser’s personal use only and may not be copied, redistributed or shared without MarketCheck’s written permission. Modification or misrepresentation of the contents is not permitted.