# Group 1 Automotive (GPI): Q3 2026 Pre-Earnings Channel Check

Canonical URL: https://ai.marketcheck.com/i/s/gpi-q3-2026

**Free sample**: the post-print edition, with the accuracy review against the reported results. Group 1 Automotive reported on Oct 27, 2026. Investor Desk: https://ai.marketcheck.com/investor · PDF: https://ai.marketcheck.com/api/investor/pdf/s-gpi-q3-2026

Not investment advice. MarketCheck is a data and analytics company, not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer.

## What the report says

North American Vehicle Transaction Signal

- Signal: Cautiously bearish. Confidence: Medium.

Group 1 sold fewer cars than the market on both sides of the business. In our data its new-vehicle sales fell 8.3% from a year ago, against a 3.0% fall for the whole new market, and its used sales fell 17.2%, against 3.5%.

Our count has run below Group 1's own reported change in both earlier quarters this year, so these declines are more likely too steep than too shallow. The used shortfall against the market is still more than twice the largest gap we have measured.

Used cars came off their first asking price by more than a year ago while franchise dealers overall discounted less, and active inventory of used cars grew 15.7% from June, after setting aside cars listed more than 180 days at the same store as service loaners.

The new-car gap to the market narrowed every month: by September new sales were level with a year ago.

Gross profit per car, financing, service, overhead savings and the United Kingdom are outside our data and can move the company's quarter a full tier either way.

---

**Post-Print Version: accuracy summary added October 29, 2026 (see Section 11C)**

# PART 1: SUMMARY

## Our Overall Take

**CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH | Confidence: MEDIUM**

*This is a read on Group 1's U.S. vehicle-selling business only, not a rating on the company.* Group 1 Automotive runs dealerships in the United States and the United Kingdom *(management's own disclosure)*. Our data follows what happens on its U.S. lots: how many cars sell, at what price, and how long they wait for a buyer. This report covers July through September 2026.

**Sales fell faster than the market on both sides.** New-vehicle sales in our data fell 8.3% from a year ago, while the whole new market fell 3.0%. Used sales fell 17.2%, in a used market down 3.5%. Vehicle revenue in our data fell 9.5% to $3.4 billion.

**Our count reads low against the company, so read these declines as an upper bound.** The measured gap tells the story. In the first and second quarters of 2026 our new-vehicle change came in 1.7 and 4.7 points below the change Group 1 reported for its U.S. stores, and our used change 1.9 and 6.8 points below. The gap has run in one direction this year. On used cars, the shortfall against the market (13.7 points) is still more than twice the largest of those gaps *(our interpretation)*.

**The gap closed through the quarter.** Group 1's new sales were down 15.7% in July, down 9.4% in August and up 1.0% in September, against a market that went from −7.0% to +0.8%. Used sales improved from −21.0% to −10.8%. Management blamed most of the second quarter's new-car shortfall on its store rebranding; a fading rebranding effect fits this path, but so do other explanations (Section 3).

**Used cars came off their asking price by more.** The average discount per car from the first listed price was 4.6% on Group 1's used cars, against 4.2% a year ago, while franchise dealers overall narrowed from 3.5% to 2.8%.

**The used lot grew.** Used stock rose 15.7% from June to 14,935 cars, after setting aside 1,023 cars that had been listed more than 180 days at the same store, which we treat as service loaners (Section 12). Used Market Days Supply reached 36, up 8 days from a year ago but inside our typical range; on the unfiltered lot it would be 39, near the top of that range. Same-store, Group 1's sales fell 10.2% on new and 20.1% on used, about two points steeper than all stores on new and three on used.

Why cautiously bearish: volume and revenue fell faster than the market on both sides, used pricing softened while the market's firmed, and the used lot grew. What keeps it from Bearish is the September recovery and the one-sided record of our count against the company's. The profit measures, the $12.5 million a quarter of cost savings management guided, aftersales and the United Kingdom are outside our data; they can move the company's result a full tier in either direction.

## The Quarter in Numbers

*Source: MarketCheck Compass, Group 1's U.S. stores. "Same-store" compares only the stores Group 1 owned through both quarters, identified store by store from the seller records now carried in Compass and keyed on the store's zip code this quarter (Section 3).*

| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New vehicles sold (all stores) | 44,732 | 48,766 | −8.3% | 44,517 |
| Same-store new units | 41,441 | 46,155 | −10.2% | – |
| Our new change minus the company's, Q2 2026 | – | – | −4.7 points | – |
| New average transaction price | $52,359 | $52,230 | +0.2% | $53,186 |
| Used vehicles sold (all stores) | 37,247 | 44,972 | −17.2% | 36,830 |
| Same-store used units | 34,012 | 42,558 | −20.1% | – |
| Our used change minus the company's, Q2 2026 | – | – | −6.8 points | – |
| Used average transaction price | $31,278 | $29,363 | +6.5% | $31,935 |
| Vehicle revenue in our data | $3.4B | $3.8B | −9.5% | $3.4B |

| Market share | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New unit share | 1.1% | 1.2% | −0.1 pp | 1.1% |
| New revenue share | 1.2% | 1.2% | −0.1 pp | 1.1% |
| Used unit share | 0.7% | 0.8% | −0.1 pp | 0.7% |
| Used revenue share | 0.8% | 1.0% | −0.1 pp | 0.8% |

*Market share is computed against MarketCheck Compass-captured North American retail transactions for the same period, not against total US registrations or company-reported deliveries. Coverage of new-vehicle retail runs approximately 80–95% of the actual market and varies by brand, so these figures are a consistent relative measure across periods, not an absolute share of the true market.*

Every share move is below the 0.3-point level we treat as meaningful. The "company" rows compare our second-quarter change with the change in U.S. retail units Group 1 reported in its quarterly filing for the same quarter (new −6.1%, used −13.6%). At the stores Group 1 owned through both years, new sales fell 10.2% and used 20.1%; in the second quarter the same panel read several points steeper than the company's reported same-store decline, so it is context here, not the lead.

## Inventory and Pricing Risk

| On the lots, September 30 | New | Used |
|---|---|---|
| Vehicles for sale | 34,684 | 14,935 |
| Change vs. year ago | −3.0% | +11.2% |
| Change vs. June 30 | +1.4% | +15.7% |
| Average list price | $55,866 | $33,391 |
| Share of stock over 90 days on site | 29.9% | 5.8% |
| Market Days Supply | 67 | 36 |
| Market Days Supply, year ago | 67 | 28 |
| Asking premium on unsold stock | 6.7% | 6.8% |

New Market Days Supply sits inside the typical range for franchise dealers (46 to 80 days). Used Market Days Supply of 36 sits inside its typical range (27 to 40 days), up 8 days from a year ago; on the unfiltered lot it would be 39, near the top of the range. Used inventory figures throughout this report exclude cars listed more than 180 days at the same store, an interim rule for service loaners (Section 12). The used build is fresh stock: used cars over 90 days on site are 5.8% of the lot, level with a year ago. Management said a shortage of used cars held back its second quarter, so a rebuilt lot fits its plan; the question is whether sales follow.

On new cars the aging sits in luxury stock: 40.2% of luxury new cars had waited more than 90 days at their selling store, against 30.0% a year ago. Mercedes-Benz (53.1% of its 3,149 active units) and BMW (45.1% of its 2,902 active units) are the largest pools. Domestic brands sold further below sticker than a year ago.

## Electric Vehicles, Geography, and the Two Cases

**Electric vehicles.** New fully electric (battery-electric) sales fell 56.5% to 948, after the federal purchase credit ended on September 30, 2025 and pulled sales into the year-ago quarter; the whole market's new battery-electric sales fell 52.6%. Used battery-electric sales rose 2.1% to 983, against 11.5% for the market. Hybrids are 39.1% of Group 1's new sales and sold in about half the time of gasoline cars.

**Geography.** Texas, about two-fifths of Group 1's sales in our data, fell 4.7% on new and 16.9% on used. Georgia rose (new +32.2%) on the two Stone Mountain stores bought in the second quarter, and California fell (new −20.7%) after Mercedes-Benz store sales. Maryland, where almost every store was rebranded, fell 38.1% on new.

**The positive case.** The new-car shortfall against the market shrank every month, and by September new sales were level with a year ago. Toyota, 36.4% of new vehicles sold, grew 1.3% and sold above sticker. The used lot was rebuilt with fresh stock, which management had said it needed.

**The negative case.** Used sales fell more than four times as fast as the market, the used lot grew while sales fell, and Group 1 cut more off its used asking prices while franchise dealers cut less. Our data cannot say what that does to used profit per car.

---

# PART 2: FULL ANALYSIS

## Section 1: Overall Verdict and Confidence

**CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH | Confidence: MEDIUM**

This is a read on Group 1's U.S. vehicle-selling business only, not a rating on the company. Finance & Insurance income, aftersales, the United Kingdom, overhead and the gross profit Group 1 earns on each car are outside our data.

Why cautiously bearish: all-store new sales fell 8.3% in a new market down 3.0%, and used sales fell 17.2% in a used market down 3.5%. Vehicle revenue in our data fell 9.5%. Used cars sold further below their first asking price than a year ago (−4.6% against −4.2%), while franchise dealers overall moved the other way (−2.8% against −3.5%). The used lot grew 15.7% from June, after setting aside long-listed cars as service loaners, and used Market Days Supply reached 36, inside the typical range (39 on the unfiltered lot).

How much weight the volume figures carry: the measured gap matters here. Our count of vehicles sold has run below Group 1's reported change in both quarters of 2026 for which the company has reported, by 1.7 and 4.7 points on new and 1.9 and 6.8 points on used. Those gaps all point the same way, so the declines shown are more likely too steep than too shallow. The new-car shortfall against the market (5.3 points) is within the range of that record, so it carries low weight. The used shortfall (13.7 points) is more than twice the largest gap, so it carries medium weight.

*Weighting note: the signal table leans negative on revenue, used volume, used pricing and the used inventory build. New-car pricing, inventory discipline and the Toyota franchise are neutral. The profit measures are not observable.*

Confidence is Medium, capped by three things: the measured gap between our count and the company's, a capture rate that sits above the company's own unit count (Section 12), and steep state-level declines in Maryland and South Carolina that we could not tie to any store sale. Management reported a completed cost program worth about $12.5 million a quarter and expected the rebranding drag to fade; aftersales collision work fell 15% in the second quarter. Those offsets sit outside our data and can move the company's result a full tier in either direction.

---

## Section 2: Signal Summary Table

| Signal Lens | What the Data Shows | Signal | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Revenue Nowcasting** | Vehicle revenue in our data $3.4B, −9.5%; new −8.4%, used −11.6% | Cautiously Bearish | Medium |
| **New volume against the market** | New units −8.3% against −3.0% for the market; our count ran 1.7 and 4.7 points below the company's change in the first and second quarters | Cautiously Bearish | Low |
| **Used volume against the market** | Used units −17.2% against −3.5%; the 13.7-point shortfall is more than twice our largest measured gap to the company (6.8 points) | Cautiously Bearish | Medium |
| **Pricing Power (new)** | New sold 1.5% below sticker against 1.4% a year ago; franchise dealers 3.2% against 3.4% | Neutral | Medium |
| **Used pricing (discount from first listed price)** | Average used discount −4.6% against −4.2%; franchise dealers −2.8% against −3.5% | Cautiously Bearish | Medium |
| **Inventory Build Risk** | Used stock +15.7% from June and +11.2% from a year ago, after the service-loaner exclusion; used Market Days Supply 36, inside the typical range (39 unfiltered); used stock over 90 days on site 5.8%, level with a year ago | Cautiously Bearish | Low |
| **Inventory Discipline** | New Market Days Supply 67, inside the typical range; brand by brand, against franchise dealers, used supply runs 67% to 88% of theirs and new supply mostly above 100% | Neutral | Medium |
| **Brand Equity (Toyota, 36.4% of new)** | Toyota new +1.3%, 0.7% above sticker, Market Days Supply at 101% of the franchise benchmark | Neutral | Low |
| **EV Transition Tracking** | New fully electric −56.5% against −52.6% for the market; used fully electric +2.1% against +11.5% | Neutral | Low |
| **Management Verification** | Rebranding recovery directionally consistent; used sourcing mixed; profit and cost claims not observable | Neutral | Medium |

---

## Section 3: Detailed Sales Numbers

**Why it matters:** units sold times average price is a direct shadow of the vehicle revenue Group 1 will report for its U.S. stores. Group 1 bought and sold stores over the past year. All-store figures lead this section, as the revenue base, with our measured gap to the company's own reported change beside them; the same-store figures, now built store by store from the seller records carried in Compass, are shown as context.

### New vehicles

| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units, all stores | 44,732 | 48,766 | −8.3% | 44,517 |
| Same-store units (context) | 41,441 | 46,155 | −10.2% | – |
| Revenue in our data | $2.3B | $2.5B | −8.4% | $2.3B |
| Average transaction price | $52,359 | $52,230 | +0.2% | $53,186 |
| Sold days on site, mean | 57 | 55 | +2 days | 60 |
| Sold days on site, median | 35 | 33 | +2 days | 35 |
| Discount vs. sticker | −1.5% | −1.4% | −0.1 pp | −1.2% |

**Our count against the company's.** In the second quarter our all-store new change was −10.9%, against −6.1% for the U.S. retail units Group 1 reported; in the first quarter it was −10.0% against −8.4% *(management's own disclosure)*. Both times our figure was the steeper one, so this quarter's −8.3% should be read as an upper bound on the decline, not a forecast of the company's figure.

Month by month, Group 1's new sales were down 15.7% in July (market −7.0%), down 9.4% in August (market −2.4%) and up 1.0% in September (market +0.8%). The gap to the market closed through the quarter.

**What could explain the improving path.** Management attributed about two-thirds of its second-quarter decline in new sales at comparable stores to its store rebranding, which disrupted online search, and said it expected growth at comparable stores to return later this year *(management's own disclosure)*. A fading rebranding effect fits the path. So would a harder July–August comparison a year ago, a supply or allocation change by brand, or September's figures still filling in at our data edge. Our data cannot separate these.

The average new price rose $129. Higher prices within the same brands added about $981, and a mix shift toward cheaper brands (more Toyota, fewer Mercedes-Benz and BMW) took away about $852.

### Used vehicles

| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units, all stores | 37,247 | 44,972 | −17.2% | 36,830 |
| Same-store units (context) | 34,012 | 42,558 | −20.1% | – |
| Revenue in our data | $1.1B | $1.2B | −11.6% | $1.1B |
| Average transaction price | $31,278 | $29,363 | +6.5% | $31,935 |
| Sold days on site, mean | 30 | 30 | +1 day | 32 |
| Sold days on site, median | 21 | 18 | +3 days | 19 |

*Revenue is the sum of captured selling prices. About 5.7% of used sales carried no price in our data this quarter and 5.9% a year ago, so the revenue change is comparable across the two.*

Used sales fell in every month: −21.0% in July, −18.9% in August and −10.8% in September, against a market down 7.5%, down 2.8% and up 0.5%. In our second-quarter count, the used change ran 6.8 points below the company's reported −13.6%; even a gap of that size would leave this quarter's used decline well beyond the market's *(our interpretation)*.

**The used-to-new check.** Group 1 sold 0.833 used cars for every new car in our data, against 0.922 a year ago and 0.827 last quarter. Management said its used business was limited by how many affordable cars it could source, not by demand, and that sourcing should improve in the second half *(management's own disclosure)*.

**What drove the used price rise.** The used average transaction price rose $1,915. Brand mix explains only about $84 of it; the rest, about $1,831, came within brands. Within brands, Group 1 sold younger, lower-mileage cars: 36.2% were two model years old or newer, against 33.6% a year ago, and average mileage fell by 3,893 miles. Cars under $20,000 fell to 26.5% of used sales from 32.2%. The price gain is therefore partly a change in which cars sold, and we do not read it as pricing power. Management described used selling prices up about $1,400 a car in the second quarter.

**Same-store bridge.** This quarter's same-store figures compare stores, using the seller records carried in Compass: each sale is tied to the store that sold it, and a store counts as comparable when Group 1 had been selling through it since before July 1, 2025 and it was still selling in the quarter just ended. For Group 1 the store is identified by its zip code rather than by its website, because the company re-keyed and renamed most of its store websites during the 2026 rebranding (Sterling McCall Toyota became Group 1 Toyota Southwest Houston, for example), which breaks both the website identifier and the seller-name match that we use for other groups. On that basis 86 stores are comparable, carrying 92.6% of Group 1's new sales and 91.3% of its used sales this quarter. Nine stores whose first Group 1 sales in our data came after July 1, 2025 contributed 1,277 new and 1,247 used units this quarter with no year-ago equivalent: Group 1 Kia Tomball in Texas from May 2026 (930 units), Group 1 Toyota Stone Mountain and Group 1 Honda Stone Mountain in Georgia from August 2026 (the two stores bought in the second quarter *(management's own disclosure)*), Mercedes-Benz of Buckhead in Georgia from December 2025 and Herb Connolly Chevrolet in Massachusetts from August 2026; Georgia (1,145 units), Texas (772) and Massachusetts (416) lead. Seven stores that sold a year ago but not this quarter carried 2,001 new and 1,631 used units in the year-ago quarter, led by Mercedes-Benz of Beverly Hills (1,002 units, last sale May 2026) and Mercedes-Benz of Anaheim Hills (712, June 2026), which match the California store sales, and by Beck & Masten Kia (795), Bill Kolb Jr Subaru in New York (386, last sale December 2025), Clay Cooley Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram Dallas (361) and Freedom Chevrolet in Texas (334). Beck & Masten Kia and Group 1 Kia Tomball look like one store under its old and new names with its zip code recorded differently; the panel counts it as departed and acquired, which leaves it out of both quarters rather than distorting them *(our interpretation)*. Four stores whose volume swung more than fourfold were left out of both quarters, among them the Houston record named simply "Group 1 Automotive" that carries most of the group's corporate-website sales (2,468 units this quarter against 264 a year ago) and Acura of Fort Myers (975 against 3). Same-store and all-store differ by 1.9 points on new and 2.9 points on used, consistent with net store sales. The old zip-code panel read −10.1% and −20.1% for the same quarter, so the change of method moves the figures by a tenth of a point. *Store-level same-store approximation built from Compass seller identifiers, keyed on zip code for Group 1 this quarter, not the company's certified same-store comparison; stores acquired part-way through the year-ago quarter can add partial-period noise.*

### By state

*Each zip code is placed in the state where most of its sales are recorded.*

| State | New Q3 2026 | New Q3 2025 | New change vs. year ago | Used Q3 2026 | Used Q3 2025 | Used change vs. year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 19,635 | 20,603 | −4.7% | 16,667 | 20,063 | −16.9% |
| Massachusetts | 4,569 | 5,320 | −14.1% | 4,075 | 4,626 | −11.9% |
| Georgia | 4,009 | 3,033 | +32.2% | 2,518 | 2,047 | +23.0% |
| California | 3,644 | 4,593 | −20.7% | 1,821 | 2,416 | −24.6% |
| Oklahoma | 2,705 | 2,973 | −9.0% | 2,850 | 3,769 | −24.4% |
| South Carolina | 1,798 | 1,844 | −2.5% | 1,310 | 2,428 | −46.0% |
| Maryland | 1,132 | 1,830 | −38.1% | 1,121 | 1,556 | −28.0% |

Georgia's gain matches the Stone Mountain purchases, and California's fall the Mercedes-Benz store sales. Maryland and South Carolina used fell steeply with no store sale on record that explains them. Management said almost all of its Texas and Maryland stores had been rebranded by July *(management's own disclosure)*. We read these as patterns to raise with the company, not as regional demand *(our interpretation)*.

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## Section 4: Top Brands Sold

**Why it matters:** Toyota alone is more than a third of Group 1's new sales, and the luxury brands carry the highest prices.

### New

| Brand | Units | Units a year ago | Change vs. year ago | Average price | Sold days on site | Price vs. sticker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 16,299 | 16,092 | +1.3% | $46,021 | 29 | +0.7% |
| Honda | 3,597 | 4,165 | −13.6% | $38,337 | 46 | 0.0% |
| Ford | 3,454 | 3,851 | −10.3% | $55,916 | 102 | −5.5% |
| Lexus | 3,080 | 3,021 | +2.0% | $65,418 | 31 | +0.8% |
| BMW | 2,659 | 3,080 | −13.7% | $78,461 | 78 | +0.6% |
| Mercedes-Benz | 2,249 | 3,124 | −28.0% | $80,585 | 99 | +0.9% |
| GMC | 2,197 | 2,376 | −7.5% | $67,160 | 85 | −5.9% |
| Chevrolet | 1,750 | 2,342 | −25.3% | $49,433 | 56 | −5.9% |
| Kia | 1,427 | 1,600 | −10.8% | $39,337 | 51 | −3.0% |
| Audi | 1,190 | 1,369 | −13.1% | $65,040 | 82 | −5.5% |

Toyota is 36.4% of new units and sold in about a month on the days-on-site clock, above sticker. Toyota and Lexus both grew; nearly every other brand fell by double digits. Mercedes-Benz's fall follows the sale of its California stores, and its share of its brand's market fell from 3.8% to 2.8%. The domestic brands sold further below sticker than a year ago: Chevrolet −5.9% against −3.4%, GMC −5.9% against −4.1%, Ford −5.5% against −4.0%.

### Used

| Brand | Units | Units a year ago | Change vs. year ago | Average price | Sold days on site |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 6,238 | 7,747 | −19.5% | $30,241 | 26 |
| Ford | 3,352 | 4,200 | −20.2% | $31,373 | 27 |
| BMW | 2,939 | 3,153 | −6.8% | $42,219 | 31 |
| Honda | 2,770 | 3,402 | −18.6% | $23,845 | 25 |
| Chevrolet | 2,532 | 3,288 | −23.0% | $30,055 | 27 |
| Lexus | 2,143 | 2,253 | −4.9% | $41,595 | 25 |
| Mercedes-Benz | 2,016 | 2,487 | −18.9% | $43,390 | 54 |
| Nissan | 1,939 | 2,260 | −14.2% | $20,136 | 28 |
| Audi | 1,450 | 1,523 | −4.8% | $33,911 | 56 |
| GMC | 1,426 | 1,770 | −19.4% | $39,895 | 27 |

Luxury used held up best (BMW −6.8%, Lexus −4.9%, Audi −4.8%), while the mainstream brands fell 14% to 23%. Luxury makes are now 30.1% of used sales, against 28.8% a year ago. That fits management's account of scarce affordable used cars.

---

## Section 5: What's Sitting on the Lots (Inventory)

*Compass inventory snapshot, September 30, 2026. Aging is measured on the days-on-site clock, the days a car has been listed by the store selling it (Section 7a). Used figures exclude cars listed more than 180 days at the same store, an interim rule for service loaners (Section 12); new figures are unfiltered.*

**Why it matters:** a car that sits costs the dealer interest every day, and its eventual selling price tends to drift down. A growing pile of older stock is tomorrow's clearance problem.

| Measure | New, Sep 30 2026 | New, Sep 30 2025 | Used, Sep 30 2026 | Used, Sep 30 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active units | 34,684 | 35,768 | 14,935 | 13,428 |
| Average list price | $55,866 | $54,999 | $33,391 | $33,499 |
| Active days on site, mean | 82 | 70 | 31 | 30 |
| Active days on site, median | 44 | 34 | 22 | 21 |
| Share of stock over 90 days on site | 29.9% | 23.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% |

**Used: a bigger, fresher lot.** Active used units rose 15.7% from June and 11.2% from a year ago, after setting aside 1,023 cars listed more than 180 days at the same store (Section 12). The share over 90 days on site is 5.8%, level with a year ago and up from 3.9% in June, so the added stock is recent: the typical used car on the lot had been at its store for 22 days. Luxury cars are 30.1% of used stock; their over-90-day share on site is 7.9%, against 4.9% for mainstream stock.

**New: luxury stock is aging.** New units fell 3.0% from a year ago, and the share over 90 days on site rose to 29.9% from 23.0%, and from 29.2% in June. Luxury new stock is the older part: 40.2% over 90 days on site against 30.0% a year ago. Mercedes-Benz (3,149 cars, 53.1% over 90 days on site), BMW (2,902, 45.1%) and Ford (4,386, 36.8%) hold most of it. The sport-utility share of new stock is 56.6%, pickups 21.8%, and 54.1% is priced above $50,000.

---

## Section 6: Price Position: Sticker, Asking Premium and Discounts

**Why it matters:** these measures show where Group 1 prices its cars against the sticker, against what its cars sell for, and against its own first asking price. None of them is a profit measure: they say nothing about what Group 1 paid for a car or earned on it.

**New, against sticker.** New cars sold 1.5% below the manufacturer's suggested retail price, against 1.4% a year ago and 1.2% last quarter. Franchise dealers overall moved from 3.4% to 3.2% below, so Group 1 stayed much closer to sticker than the market but gave up 0.1 points while the market gained 0.2. Toyota, Lexus, BMW and Mercedes-Benz sold closer to or above sticker than a year ago; Ford, Chevrolet, GMC, Nissan and Audi sold further below.

*Prices compared across the March–May 2026 period are affected by franchise dealers moving mandatory fees into advertised prices after Federal Trade Commission enforcement; part of any change is how prices are advertised rather than what buyers pay, and that part is not estimated. Comparisons with a year ago cross it.*

**Asking premium on unsold stock.** This compares the average list price of cars still for sale at September 30 with the average price of cars sold during the quarter. The two groups are different cars, so the trend matters more than the level.

| Asking premium | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| New | 6.7% | 5.3% | +1.4 pp |
| Used, all | 6.8% | 14.1% | −7.3 pp |
| Used, luxury | 5.8% | 14.8% | −9.0 pp |
| Used, mainstream | 7.3% | 12.4% | −5.1 pp |

Both measures sit below our 10% watch line. The used premium narrowed sharply because sold prices rose while the lot's list prices stayed flat. Used stock here excludes cars listed more than 180 days at the same store (Section 12); on the unfiltered lot the used premium would be 8.0% against 15.2% a year ago.

**Discount from first listed price.** This compares each sold car's final price with the first price MarketCheck saw on its listing.

| Used, discount from first listed price | Group 1 Q3 2026 | Group 1 Q3 2025 | Group 1 Q2 2026 | Franchise market Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of cars discounted | 64.3% | 60.9% | 58.0% | 59.4% |
| Depth when discounted | −7.5% | −7.9% | −6.5% | −6.9% |
| Average discount per car | −4.6% | −4.2% | −3.4% | −2.8% |
| Discount on total asking value | −4.8% | −4.5% | −3.7% | −3.8% |
| Median | −2.4% | −2.0% | −1.2% | −1.6% |

More of Group 1's used cars came off their first asking price than a year ago (64.3% against 60.9%), though each cut was a little shallower. The average discount per car widened by 0.4 points while franchise dealers' narrowed by 0.8 points, from −3.5% to −2.8%. Against the second quarter, Group 1's discount deepened by 1.3 points and franchise dealers' by 0.4 points. The monthly path deepened slightly: −4.5% in July, −4.6% in August and −4.8% in September. On new cars, the average discount from first ask was −1.3%, against −1.2% a year ago and −1.8% for franchise dealers.

### Section 6d: Listing Price Position (used)

Listing Price Position compares each used car's opening asking price with MarketCheck Price, MarketCheck's model estimate of the car's market value. A ratio of 1.00 means listed at our estimate of market value; 0.95 means 5% below.

| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median ratio | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.004 |
| Position vs franchise dealers (listing-day) | −0.001 | +0.002 | +0.003 |
| Position, all listings | −0.002 | +0.004 | +0.006 |
| Listed below 0.95 | 15.1% | 10.9% | −4.2 pp |
| Listed 0.95–1.05 | 49.5% | 53.5% | +4.0 pp |
| Listed above 1.05 | 35.3% | 35.6% | +0.3 pp |
| Franchise dealers: listed below 0.95 | 13.4% | 11.4% | −2.0 pp |
| Sold within 30 days on site | 66.3% | 60.8% | −5.5 pp |
| Franchise dealers: sold within 30 days on site | 62.0% | 55.8% | −6.2 pp |

*Sold within 30 days on site counts used listings started at their selling store through September 3 in each quarter, on the days-on-site clock: a listing counts as sold when it sold with 30 or fewer days on site, and as not sold when it reached a 31st day on site (Section 12). Comparator: all franchise dealers. The year-ago quarter is missing MarketCheck Price for July 1–4, 2025. The year-over-year comparison crosses the March–May 2026 fee-inclusion shift.*

Group 1 opens its used listings at almost exactly the franchise median, as it did a year ago, with fewer cars listed well below market value. Its cars still sold within 30 days on site more often than franchise dealers' cars (60.8% against 55.8%), and both slowed by five to six points from a year ago. Opening prices near market value and a growing number of cuts after listing together point to slower selling, not to deliberately low opening prices. This section is descriptive and does not feed the signal.

### Section 6e: Selling Margin Pressure (used)

Selling Margin Pressure measures markdowns beyond the usual on cars that took longer than usual to sell. For each price band and vehicle age, Group 1's own previous 12 months set the usual time to sell and the usual markdown on cars that sold on time. A car counts when it took longer than usual and was marked down by more than usual; the excess, in dollars, is averaged over all used cars sold.

| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Selling Margin Pressure, per used car sold | $1,179 | $1,332 | +$153 |
| Sold later than usual | 48.3% | 51.3% | +3.0 pp |
| Sold later than usual and marked down beyond the usual allowance | 40.5% | 44.5% | +4.0 pp |
| Franchise dealers: Selling Margin Pressure, per used car sold | $1,047 | $1,050 | +$3 |

*Used retail sales with a first asking price on record and a sale price between half and one and a half times it. The usual time to sell and the usual markdown come from each seller's own previous 12 months, by price band and vehicle age. Comparator: franchise dealers. The year-over-year comparison crosses the March–May 2026 fee-inclusion shift.*

Group 1's Selling Margin Pressure was $1,332 per used car sold, up $153 from a year ago, against a rise of $3 for franchise dealers. Against the second quarter it rose from $1,058, as the market's did ($805 to $1,050). This describes selling behavior only. What Group 1 paid for its cars and spent reconditioning them are not in our data, so the measure is not a gross profit figure and does not feed the signal.

---

## Section 7: Days to Sell and Market Days Supply

### 7a: Days on Site and Days on Market (how long each car takes)

Two clocks run on every car in our data. **Days on site** counts only the days at the current selling store or website and restarts whenever the car moves; it is the clock a store manages its own pricing and markdowns against, and it is the aging measure this report leads with in every section. **Days on market** counts from the first day the car was advertised anywhere and keeps counting if the car moves to another store or another website; it is the listing's full exposure to the market, and it is analyzed here and only here. Both are shown for cars sold during the quarter and for cars still unsold on September 30.

| Measure | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sold days on site, new, mean | 57 | 55 | +2 days | 60 |
| Sold days on site, new, median | 35 | 33 | +2 days | 35 |
| Sold days on market, new, mean | 63 | 63 | −1 day | 67 |
| Sold days on market, new, median | 38 | 39 | −1 day | 40 |
| Sold days on site, used, mean | 30 | 30 | +1 day | 32 |
| Sold days on site, used, median | 21 | 18 | +3 days | 19 |
| Sold days on market, used, mean | 34 | 35 | −1 day | 38 |
| Sold days on market, used, median | 22 | 20 | +2 days | 21 |
| Active days on site, new, mean | 82 | 70 | +12 days | 80 |
| Active days on site, new, median | 44 | 34 | +10 days | 49 |
| Active days on market, new, mean | 86 | 77 | +10 days | 86 |
| Active days on market, new, median | 47 | 40 | +7 days | 53 |
| Active days on site, used, mean | 31 | 30 | +1 day | 29 |
| Active days on site, used, median | 22 | 21 | +1 day | 21 |
| Active days on market, used, mean | 37 | 43 | −6 days | 37 |
| Active days on market, used, median | 24 | 23 | +1 day | 22 |

On the days-on-site clock, new cars that sold had been at their store two days longer than a year ago (57 against 55) and three days less than in the second quarter; used cars that sold took about as long as a year ago (30 against 30), with the typical car three days slower (21 against 18). The unsold new stock is twelve days older on site than a year ago and two days older than in June, the largest move in the table; the unsold used stock is one day older than a year ago, after setting aside the cars listed more than 180 days at the same store (Section 12). The days-on-market rows tell a gentler story on new cars sold (a day faster than a year ago) because the market clock also counts time before a car reached its present store, and that time has shrunk: the gap between the two clocks on new cars sold narrowed from 8 days a year ago to 5 days, and on used from 5 days to 3. The used active days-on-market mean fell six days because the long tail of old listings in the year-ago lot has gone; on the site clock, which the exclusion is built on, it barely moved.

**What the gap between the two clocks tells us.** Days on site runs below days on market by about five days on new cars sold and three days on used cars sold, and 26.0% of the new and 29.5% of the used cars Group 1 sold this quarter were younger on their selling site than on the market, down from 36.9% and 42.1% a year ago. The group sells only through its store websites, with no central or e-commerce site in our data, so the gap cannot be a listing-channel effect of the kind we see at Lithia, which shows the widest gap of the eight dealer groups we cover; Carvana, which sells through one website, shows almost none, and Group 1 sits between the two. Physical movement between Group 1's own stores explains little of it: only 0.02% of the new cars and 0.21% of the used cars on its lots at September 30 had changed selling store within their listing, and only 0.15% of new and 0.76% of used sales were followed by the same car reappearing at another Group 1 store within 60 days (1.12% of used sales reappeared at a dealer outside the group). What the data do show is that 10.7% of the new cars and 19.1% of the used cars on the lot at September 30 were already younger on site than on the market on the first day we observed them, which means the time elsewhere was spent before the car reached its present store: a car advertised by the previous owner's dealer or at auction, or carried on another Group 1 website before its present one. Our reading, which the Compass data cannot fully confirm, is that the gap mostly reflects used cars sourced from other sellers and new cars that spent time on a sister store's site before being moved, rather than transfers within the quarter *(our interpretation)*. The website re-keying that accompanied the 2026 rebranding did not widen the gap: the share of cars younger on site fell from a year ago, which is consistent with the site counter following the store rather than the web address *(our interpretation)*. Days on site is the clock this report leads with because it is the one Group 1's stores price and mark down against; days on market, the listing's full market exposure, is analyzed in this section only.

### 7b: Market Days Supply (how long the whole lot would last)

Market Days Supply divides the cars on hand at September 30 by the average number sold per day in the 45 days ending that day (August 17 to September 30). Every period uses the same 45-day window to its own quarter-end.

| Market Days Supply | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New | 67 | 67 | 0 days | 76 |
| Used | 36 | 28 | +8 days | 33 |

New Market Days Supply of 67 sits inside the typical range for franchise dealers (46 to 80 days), level with a year ago and 9 days below June. Used Market Days Supply of 36 sits inside its typical range (27 to 40 days), 8 days above a year ago and 3 above June. It rose because active inventory of used cars grew 16% from June while used vehicles sold in the 45 days to quarter-end rose only 5%. Used stock here excludes cars listed more than 180 days at the same store (Section 12); on the unfiltered lot the figure would be 39, near the top of the range, against 31 a year ago.

*New-vehicle Market Days Supply counts every advertised unit, including units advertised before they reach the dealership; company-reported figures count stock on the lot and are not directly comparable.*

**Coherence check.** Sold days on site divided by Market Days Supply is 86% for new and 78% for used, against the ranges in which the two normally sit, 62% to 100% for new and 76% to 114% for used, derived on sold days on site over complete quarters since 2023; both sit inside their ranges. The used ratio is taken on the unfiltered lot (Market Days Supply 39 rather than 36), because the service-loaner exclusion does not enter benchmark comparisons. On the days-on-market clock the ratios are 93% for new and 87% for used against ranges of 69% to 108% and 82% to 124%, inside their ranges, so the inventory and sales figures agree with each other on both clocks.

**Against franchise dealers, brand by brand.** Each figure shows Group 1's Market Days Supply for a brand as a percentage of the franchise benchmark: the Market Days Supply of all franchise dealers for the same brand at the same date, on the same 45-day window. 100% means Group 1 is in line with franchise dealers of the same makes; below 100% means it carries less supply than they do.

| Brand | New: Group 1 | New: franchise benchmark | New % of franchise benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 32 | 32 | 101% |
| Ford | 120 | 102 | 117% |
| Mercedes-Benz | 127 | 116 | 110% |
| BMW | 100 | 88 | 114% |
| Honda | 53 | 51 | 105% |
| Audi | 154 | 138 | 112% |
| GMC | 86 | 107 | 81% |
| Chevrolet | 88 | 87 | 101% |

| Brand | Used: Group 1 | Used: franchise benchmark | Used % of franchise benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 36 | 40 | 88% |
| Ford | 35 | 49 | 71% |
| BMW | 39 | 49 | 79% |
| Chevrolet | 39 | 50 | 78% |
| Mercedes-Benz | 35 | 52 | 67% |
| Honda | 32 | 40 | 80% |
| Nissan | 33 | 44 | 74% |
| Lexus | 29 | 39 | 73% |

On new cars, Group 1 carries 10% to 17% more supply than franchise dealers in Ford, BMW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz and 5% more in Honda, is in line in Toyota and Chevrolet, and carries well below in GMC. On used, it carries less than franchise dealers in every major brand, even after this quarter's build; the used figures exclude the same long-listed cars as the rest of the used inventory, while the franchise benchmark does not, and before that exclusion the brand ratios ran from 75% to 97%.

---

## Section 8: Electric Vehicle Sales

**Why it matters:** the federal electric-vehicle purchase credit ended on September 30, 2025, so buyers pulled purchases into the year-ago quarter. Year-over-year comparisons are against an inflated base.

| Battery-electric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | Change vs. year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| New count | 948 | 2,180 | −56.5% |
| New share of new sales | 2.1% | 4.5% | −2.4 pp |
| New average days to sell | 86 | 101 | −14 days |
| Used count | 983 | 963 | +2.1% |
| Used share of used sales | 2.6% | 2.1% | +0.5 pp |
| Used average days to sell | 29 | 40 | −11 days |

*Days to sell in this table, and the hybrid and gasoline selling times below, are days on market, the clock analyzed in Section 7a; no days-on-site figure is computed for the powertrain subsets.*

New battery-electric sales fell a little faster than the market's 52.6%, and Group 1's share of the market's new battery-electric sales slipped from 0.9% to 0.8%. Toyota (268) and Lexus (168) led its new electric sales. Used battery-electric sales rose 2.1% against 11.5% for the market, led by Tesla (222), and sold faster than a year ago.

**Hybrids.** Hybrids of all kinds were 39.1% of Group 1's new sales in our data, and full hybrids alone 26.8%. Full hybrids sold in 35 days on average, against 68 days for gasoline cars.

---

## Section 9: The Positive Case

The gap closed. Group 1's shortfall against the new market went from 8.6 points in July to none in September, and on used from 13.5 points to 11.2 points. That is the path management's rebranding explanation predicts, though our data cannot confirm the cause.

Our count is more likely too low than too high. In both reported quarters of 2026 our year-over-year change ran below Group 1's own, by up to 4.7 points on new and 6.8 points on used. On new, a gap of that size would bring the quarter close to the market *(our interpretation)*.

The core franchise held. Toyota, 36.4% of new sales, grew 1.3%, sold 0.7% above sticker and carries new supply in line with franchise dealers of the same brand. Lexus also grew, and luxury used sales held up far better than mainstream ones.

The used lot was rebuilt with fresh cars. Management said a shortage of affordable used cars held back the second quarter. Used stock rose 15.7% from June while the share over 90 days on site stayed at 5.8%, level with a year ago, and brand by brand Group 1 still carries less used supply than franchise dealers of the same brands, 67% to 88% of their figure.

---

## Section 10: The Negative Case

Used sales fell far faster than the market. Used units fell 17.2% against 3.5% for the market, and the shortfall is more than twice the largest gap we have measured between our count and the company's *(our interpretation)*. Vehicle revenue in our data fell 9.5%.

Used pricing softened while the market's firmed. Group 1's average used discount from first ask widened to −4.6% from −4.2%, while franchise dealers' narrowed to −2.8% from −3.5%. More cars were cut (64.3% against 60.9%), and fewer sold within 30 days on site (60.8% against 66.3%). Our data cannot say what this does to used profit per car.

The used lot grew faster than sales. Used Market Days Supply reached 36, up 8 days from a year ago, and 39 on the unfiltered lot, near the top of its typical range. If September's improvement in used sales does not continue, this stock will need to be cleared.

Domestic and luxury new stock is heavy. Ford and BMW new supply runs 14% to 17% above franchise dealers of the same brands, domestic brands sold further below sticker than a year ago, and 40.2% of luxury new stock had waited more than 90 days at its selling store.

---

## Section 11A: Did Management Get It Right Last Quarter?

*Sources: Group 1 Automotive Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (July 30, 2026) and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (quarterly report).* "Fact" claims describe the prior quarter; "Guidance" claims describe this one.

| What management said | Claim type | What our data shows | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. used vehicle inventory supply of 32 days at June 30 | Fact | Our used Market Days Supply at June 30 was 33 after the service-loaner exclusion (35 before it), 103% of the company's figure; logged | **Logged** (our figure runs above the company's) |
| New-vehicle days of supply | Fact | Not disclosed for the second quarter. Our new Market Days Supply at June 30 was 76; logged | **Not observable** |
| About two-thirds of the 5% same-store new decline came from rebranding and search disruption; same-store growth expected to return later this year | Fact + Guidance | All-store new −8.3% for the quarter, but the monthly gap to the market went from −8.6 points in July to +0.2 in September | **Directionally consistent** |
| Used sourcing should improve in the second half; more focus on less expensive cars | Guidance | Used stock +15.7% from June; used vehicles sold +1.1% from June but −17.2% from a year ago; cars under $20,000 26.5% of used sales, against 26.8% in the second quarter | **Mixed** |
| Used-to-new ratio brought up to about 1 to 1 by the end of 2025 | Fact | Company figure includes the United Kingdom; our U.S. ratio was 0.833 this quarter, against 0.922 a year ago | **Not observable** on a matching basis |
| New gross profit per car $3,260, steady | Fact | Profit per car is not in our data; new cars sold 1.5% below sticker, against 1.4% a year ago | **Not observable** |
| $50 million cost program complete, about $12.5 million a quarter of savings | Fact + Guidance | Overhead is not in our data | **Not observable** |

The rebranding recovery is the claim our data supports most directly, and it is also the one where other causes could produce the same monthly path. The sourcing claim splits: Group 1 found more used cars, but it has not yet sold more of them than a year ago.

---

## Section 11B: What to Watch on the Earnings Call

1. **Same-store volume.** Our capture shows new sales down 8.3% and used down 17.2% for all stores (same-store −10.2% and −20.1%), and our count has run below the company's in both earlier quarters this year. What were Group 1's U.S. same-store new and used unit changes, and how did they move from July to September?

2. **The rebranding effect.** The monthly gap to the market closed in our data by September. Does management confirm that search traffic and sales at rebranded stores have recovered, including in Maryland, where our new sales fell 38.1%?

3. **The used build and used discounts.** Used stock rose 15.7% from June while the average used discount from first ask widened to −4.6%, against −2.8% for franchise dealers. Was the build deliberate sourcing ahead of fourth-quarter demand, and what happened to used gross profit per car, which our data cannot measure?

4. **Domestic and luxury new stock.** Ford and BMW carry more new supply than franchise dealers of the same brands, and 40.2% of luxury new stock had waited more than 90 days at its selling store. Did new gross profit per car hold near $3,260?

5. **Portfolio changes.** When does the Hennessy purchase close, which stores are in the planned third- and fourth-quarter sales, and has Group 1 sold or closed any New York store? Our store panel counts nine stores added and seven departed over the year, among them a Subaru store in New York with no sales in our data since December 2025.

6. **Service loaners.** We set aside 1,023 used cars listed more than 180 days at the same store as service loaners; about a third of them have under 10,000 miles. How large is Group 1's loaner fleet, and is it advertised as retail stock?

---

## Section 11C: Post-Print Accuracy Summary (Group 1 Q3 2026 Results, October 28, 2026)

**What this section is:** This section was added after Group 1 Automotive reported Q3 2026 results on October 28, 2026. Everything above it is the report as written, unchanged.

**Scorecard:** Of 33 vehicle-transaction calls that could be tested against what Group 1 reported, 22 were confirmed, 10 were partly right and 1 was missed. Another 3 could not be tested because Group 1 gave no figure for them this quarter: electric-vehicle sales, new-car stock by brand, and service loaners. The Cautiously Bearish verdict was right for the U.S. vehicle business: U.S. new retail units fell 5.5% and used 10.0% (4.6% and 10.0% at stores owned in both years), against a market down 3.0% and 3.5% in our data. U.S. new-vehicle gross profit fell 12.3% and new gross profit per unit (GPU) fell 7.2% to $3,084, while used GPU was flat at $1,527 ($1,544 at stores owned in both years, up 1.6%). Revenue fell 6.7% to $5.4 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $9.36, against $10.45 a year earlier, came in below analysts’ expectations; finance and insurance, parts and service, overhead and the U.K. business, which sit outside vehicle transactions in our data, were all drags as well.

| Metric | Our Call (October 21) | Group 1 Reported (October 28) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Composite signal | Cautiously Bearish / Medium; U.S. new and used sales behind the market | U.S. new units −5.5% and used −10.0% against a market down 3.0% and 3.5% in our data; new GPU −7.2% | **HIT** |
| New units against the market | −8.3% in our data against the market’s −3.0%; read as an upper bound on the decline | U.S. new −5.5%; same-store −4.6% | **HIT** |
| Used units against the market | −17.2% in our data against the market’s −3.5%; read as an upper bound on the decline | U.S. used −10.0%; same-store −10.0% | **HIT** |
| Vehicle revenue | $3.4 billion in our data, −9.5% | U.S. new and used retail revenue $3.2 billion, −6.4%; same-store −4.5% | **HIT** |
| New pricing power | Neutral; same-store new average transaction price +1.2% | Same-store new selling price +1.2%, but new GPU −7.2% to $3,084 | **PARTIAL** |
| Used pricing | Cautiously Bearish; average cut from first listed price 4.6% against 4.2% | Used prices cut on purpose, by $300 from the second quarter; used GPU $1,527 against $1,529 (same-store +1.6%) | **PARTIAL** |
| Used inventory | Cautiously Bearish, low weight; used Market Days Supply 36, up 8 days | Used days’ supply 33 against 31, up 2 days; trade-ins kept for retail, wholesale units −12.4% | **PARTIAL** |
| New inventory | Neutral; new Market Days Supply 67, level on the year | New days’ supply 51 against 52 a year ago | **HIT** |
| September recovery (positive case) | Gap to the market closed; new sales level with a year ago by September | New units +1.9% from the second quarter while the industry fell; same-store new still −4.6% | **PARTIAL** |
| Management’s days’ supply (Section 11A) | New days’ supply recorded as not disclosed | The earnings release carries U.S. new days’ supply every quarter: 51 days at September 30 | **MISS** |

**What we got right:** The verdict rested on Group 1’s U.S. sales falling faster than the market on both new and used, and they did: the company’s new decline was about 2.5 points worse than the market’s and its used decline about 6.5 points worse. The report also said which way our own figures were likely to miss, telling readers to treat our declines of 8.3% on new and 17.2% on used as an upper bound, and that is how it played out. It listed the store rebranding as one possible cause of the improving monthly path, and management said rebranded markets were running about 2 points better than the rest. New prices were read right: our same-store new average transaction price rose 1.2%, matching the company’s same-store rise exactly. The report did not read the used price rise as pricing power, and it held finance and insurance, aftersales, overhead and the United Kingdom as able to move the result either way; all of them were drags.

**What we missed and why:** Two arguments behind the bearish call did not hold. First, deeper cuts from the first listed price on used cars were given bearish weight, but used GPU was flat, and management said it lowered used prices on purpose to reach buyers under affordability pressure. A discount measure shows how a dealer priced, not whether it made money doing so. Second, the used lot build was over-called: our used Market Days Supply rose 8 days, while Group 1’s own used days’ supply rose 2, to 33, because the company kept more trade-ins for retail instead of selling them at auction. The positive case also said new sales were level with a year ago by September; September was the latest month in our data and still filling in, and firmer figures put September new sales 2.1% to 5.0% below a year ago. Section 11A recorded Group 1’s new days’ supply as not disclosed, when the company publishes it in every earnings release. Separately, our unit counts ran above Group 1’s reported U.S. units, by about 14% on new and 4% on used, and our data put Toyota and Lexus at 43.3% of Group 1’s new sales against no more than 39.3% in the company’s figures, so brand-weighted readings overstated Toyota. Our same-store figures (new −10.2%, used −20.1%) also ran steeper than the company’s, as they have for three quarters.

**Bottom line:** Read this report for the direction of U.S. volume against the market, revenue direction, new prices and new supply, which held up. Treat its used-pricing and used-inventory reads with caution, and read our Group 1 unit counts and their changes only beside the company’s own figures.

---

## Section 12: Methodology and Glossary

### Where the data comes from

**Primary data source:** MarketCheck Compass parquet files were the primary data source: North American new and used retail sales and the daily inventory panel, filtered to Group 1 Automotive's dealer-group ticker. Sales cover July–September 2026 (current quarter), April–June 2026 (prior quarter) and July–September 2025 (year-ago quarter). The inventory snapshot is September 30, 2026, the true quarter-end; the data run through at least October 9, 2026. Every Group 1 sales record in our data is in the United States.

**Compass totals, Q3 2026:** new 44,732 units and $2.3B; used 37,247 units and $1.1B; combined $3.4B.

*Average Transaction Price (ATP) is the average of the last listed price on each sold vehicle: the final advertised price when the listing closed. It is not an out-the-door price: it excludes dealer fees, Finance & Insurance (F&I) products, trade-in equity, taxes and registration, and any incentive applied at the point of sale off the advertised price.*

**Revenue basis.** Revenue is the sum of captured selling prices and is not units times average price. The share of used sales without a captured price was 5.9% in Q3 2025, 8.5% in Q2 2026 and 5.7% in Q3 2026 (new: about 1% or less in each).

**Basis line.** Inventory basis: Compass panel for unit counts, list prices and Market Days Supply. Aging basis: days on site leads every aging figure in this report (Sections 3, 4, 5, 6d, 9, 10 and 11); days on market is shown and analyzed in Section 7a only. Days on site: the Compass site counter, re-anchored at each observed reset. Sold and active days on market: measured from the opportunity start date. The over-90-day shares count cars with more than 90 days on site at the snapshot; on the days-on-market clock the same shares are 31.1% new and 8.4% used at September 30 (25.8% and 9.3% a year ago). Market Days Supply: cars on hand at quarter-end divided by average daily sales in the 45 calendar days to quarter-end, August 17 to September 30, 2026 (ds_denominator = t45); baselines installed 2026-10-19. Company-reported days of supply typically use a one-month selling rate (the last 30 days or the calendar month) and count stock on the lot; ours uses the 45 days to quarter-end and counts every advertised unit, and the two are compared directly with that difference stated. *New-vehicle Market Days Supply counts every advertised unit, including units advertised before they reach the dealership; company-reported figures count stock on the lot and are not directly comparable.*

**Market share denominator.** *Market share is computed against MarketCheck Compass-captured North American retail transactions for the same period, not against total US registrations or company-reported deliveries. Coverage of new-vehicle retail runs approximately 80–95% of the actual market and varies by brand, so these figures are a consistent relative measure across periods, not an absolute share of the true market.*

### What this signal is built on, and what it does not adjust for

Volume, revenue and share in this report are what MarketCheck captured, not the company's results. The direction stated is our reading of the transaction evidence, not a forecast of Group 1's reported numbers.

**Coverage record.** Group 1 reports U.S. retail units in its quarterly filing, so a coverage rate (our count divided by the company's) can be computed. It sits above 100% in every quarter we checked: our count includes sales the company does not report as U.S. retail units.

| Our count as a share of Group 1's U.S. retail units | Q1 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New | 119.6% | 117.4% | 121.6% | 115.5% |
| Used | 117.6% | 115.2% | 116.7% | 107.5% |

| Our change minus Group 1's reported change | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Company basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| New units, all stores | −1.7 points | −4.7 points | U.S. retail units, Form 10-Q |
| Used units, all stores | −1.9 points | −6.8 points | U.S. retail units, Form 10-Q |

*First-quarter company figures are the six-month totals in the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q less the second quarter.*

**Waiver disclosure.** Our rules treat a new-vehicle coverage rate above 100% as a stop condition, to be investigated before publication. The analyst waived that stop for this report on October 12, 2026, on condition of this disclosure. The excess above 100% shrank from a year earlier (new from 121.6% to 115.5%, used from 116.7% to 107.5% in the second quarter), which is why our year-over-year changes have read more negative than the company's. The gap should be assumed to recur; its size should not be assumed. We located that change before reading the volume lenses: the new-car volume reading, whose shortfall against the market sits inside the measured gap, carries low weight, and the used reading, whose shortfall is more than twice the largest gap, carries medium weight. The direction of the call does not rest on volume alone: the used discount, the used inventory build and the new-car price position are per-car or within-lot measures that a capture change does not move.

**Same-store panel.** Stores are identified from the Compass seller records. For most dealer groups the identifier is the seller website; for Group 1 this quarter it is the store's zip code, because the company re-keyed and renamed most of its store websites during the 2026 rebranding (289 website identifiers a year ago against 161 now), which breaks the website identifier and the seller-name match alike. A store is comparable when its first Group 1 sale in our data is on or before July 1, 2025 and it sold in the quarter just ended; stores first seen after that date are treated as acquired, stores with no sales this quarter as departed, and both are left out. Stores whose volume moved more than fourfold between the two quarters, with at least 150 units in one of them, are left out of both. Two stores whose website changed without a change of zip code were matched by zip code and leading make and kept as one store each. On the second quarter this store panel reads −10.1% for new and −23.6% for used, against Group 1's reported same-store −5.1% and −14.0% (the earlier zip-code panel read −9.6% and −23.1%), so the same-store figures are shown as context, not as the lead. The website-level panel will replace the zip code once the re-keyed sites carry a year of history. The company's own same-store comparison is built store by store on its own ledger; our quarter-level rule approximates it.

### What our quality checks found

| Check | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Compass sales pull, three quarters | Complete | All periods pulled for new and used; distinct-vehicle counts |
| Quarterly volume range check | Pass | New 44,732 inside 32,500–58,600; used 37,247 inside 29,400–54,000; revenue $3.4B inside $2.6B–4.6B (Section 2 band, four quarters to June 30, 2026) |
| Active inventory stop check | Pass | New 34,684 inside 26,900–46,000; used 14,935 inside 10,400–19,300 after the service-loaner exclusion (15,958 before it) |
| Service-loaner exclusion (interim) | Applied | Used units listed more than 180 days at the same store set aside from every used inventory figure: 1,023 at September 30 (6.4% of the used lot), 934 at June 30 and 1,456 a year ago; new inventory not filtered (see below) |
| Market share range check | Pass | All four shares inside their ranges (used unit share 0.7% against 0.6–1.0%) |
| Market Days Supply and coherence | Pass | New inside its typical range; used inside its typical range after the service-loaner exclusion (near the top of it before) and inside Group 1's observed range (25 to 43 days, installed on the unfiltered panel); coherence on sold days on site 86% new, 78% used against the days-on-site ranges (62% to 100% new, 76% to 114% used, installed 2026-10-21), both inside; used ratio on the unfiltered Market Days Supply; days-on-market ratios 93% and 87%, inside their ranges |
| Coverage rate | Waived stop | New 115.5% and used 107.5% of the company's U.S. retail units in Q2 2026; analyst waiver and direction stated above |
| Same-store panel and divergence self-test | Pass | 86 comparable stores on the store-level panel, keyed on zip code for Group 1 this quarter because its websites were re-keyed in the rebranding; 9 acquired and 7 departed stores excluded, 4 unstable stores excluded from both quarters; same-store and all-store differ by 1.9 points (new) and 2.9 points (used) |
| Days-on-site basis (Terrence, October 20, 2026) | Applied | Days on site leads every aging figure outside Section 7a; over-90-day shares, sold within 30 days and the coherence numerator recomputed on the days-on-site clock; days-on-market values retained in the aggregates record |
| Baseline vintage note | Complete | The October 12, 2026 baseline rebuild removed long-dated used listings; all three quarters here are on the same rebuild |
| First listed price soundness check | Pass | All listing-start months March 2025 – September 2026 pass |
| Prior accuracy review | Complete | Group 1 Q2 2026 review read; its lessons applied: same-store computed for new and used and its record against the company stated, the monthly path given several candidate causes including the rebranding, the used price rise not read as pricing power, unseen segments held symmetric, coverage taken from the Form 10-Q |
| Prior earnings call review | Complete | Seven claims from the Q2 2026 call and 10-Q (Section 11A); used days of supply logged, new "not disclosed" logged |
| Numeric lint | Pass | 0 failures; advisory precision warnings on stored rounding only (run 2026-10-21) |
| Spelling lint | Pass | US spelling (run 2026-10-21) |
| Compliance sweep | Pass | No discount-to-profit inference; no lean on unseen segments; the volume section leads with all-store figures and the measured gap to the company, as the analyst directed, with the store-level same-store figure, acquired-store contribution and divergence self-test beside it; coverage rate, waiver and direction stated; the days-on-site gap reading in Section 7a is labeled as our interpretation |

**Inventory snapshot date.** September 30, 2026, the true quarter-end; Compass inventory quarter-end: 34,684 new and 15,958 used, of which 14,935 used after the service-loaner exclusion.

**Days-on-site basis for sold within 30 days.** The Section 6d speed figure counts used listings started at their selling store between the first day of the quarter and September 3, so that every listing could be followed for 30 days before the data edge. A listing is sold within 30 days when its sale record carries 30 or fewer days on site, and not sold when the car reached a 31st day on site in the inventory panel; listings that disappeared unsold before day 31 are in neither count. The franchise comparator is built the same way over all franchise dealers. This cohort is not the listing-day cohort used for the price-position figures above it.

**Service-loaner exclusion (interim rule).** Dealers keep some cars for service customers to drive and advertise them while they do, and those cars should not count as stock for sale. Pending a company-wide definition of a service loaner, every used inventory figure in this report (units, list prices, aging, asking premium, Market Days Supply and the brand-level supply comparison) excludes cars that had been listed more than 180 days at the same store on the snapshot date, read from the days-on-site counter. That removed 1,023 used cars at September 30, 934 at June 30 and 1,456 a year ago. The cars set aside are a mixed group: at September 30 they averaged 362 days on market and a $38,934 list price, 34.7% had under 10,000 miles, and the cohort averaged 52,918 miles, so the rule removes aged used stock as well as loaners, and the used aging figures are correspondingly gentler than on the unfiltered lot (active days on site 31 against 52; over-90-day share on site 5.8% against 11.8%; Market Days Supply 36 against 39). A year ago the excluded cohort was larger (1,456 cars, 9.8% of the lot) and older (550 days on market), which is why the unfiltered used aging figures fell so sharply over the year while the filtered ones barely moved. New inventory is not filtered: the 4,233 new units over 180 days on site average 324 miles and 309 days on market and are aged stock, not loaners. Sold figures are unchanged.

**State notes.** Maryland new and South Carolina used sales fell more than 25% with no matching store sale on record. Same-rooftop continuity and MarketCheck coverage stability at those stores have not been independently checked.

**Listing Price Position.** Listing Price Position compares each used car's opening asking price with MarketCheck Price, MarketCheck's model estimate of the car's market value, at the listing's first recorded status change. It describes where the dealer set the price, not what the car sold for. The year-ago quarter lacks MarketCheck Price for its first four days. This quarter's position (+0.002) sits inside Group 1's observed range (−0.001 to +0.005).

**Directional read for grading.** Group 1's used listing position against franchise dealers moved by +0.003, from −0.001 to +0.002. Under the grading rule, that is logged as no directional read for used gross profit per car. It is recorded for the post-earnings accuracy review only and does not feed the signal.

**Lenses.** Selling Margin Pressure (Section 6e) is descriptive and does not feed the signal. Brand equity is applied to Toyota, which is more than a third of new sales. Overhead is outside our data; falling volume would tend to weigh on it, while Group 1 reports a completed cost program worth about $12.5 million a quarter, so we take no view.

### What we cannot see

Outside MarketCheck's scope for Group 1: Finance & Insurance income; parts, service and collision work; the United Kingdom operations; wholesale and auction sales; gross profit per vehicle; floor-plan interest, overhead and the cost program; fleet sales not advertised at retail; and the Hennessy stores until the purchase closes and their sales are tagged to Group 1.

**Sources of figures.** Every figure in this report comes from MarketCheck data unless the text names another source, such as a company filing or management's comments on its earnings call. Only figures from those other sources carry a source label.

### Plain-English Glossary

| Term | What it means |
|---|---|
| ATP (Average Transaction Price) | Average Transaction Price (ATP) is the average of the last listed price on each sold vehicle: the final advertised price when the listing closed. It is not an out-the-door price: it excludes dealer fees, Finance & Insurance (F&I) products, trade-in equity, taxes and registration, and any incentive applied at the point of sale off the advertised price. |
| Asking premium | How far the average list price of unsold cars sits above the average price of cars sold in the quarter |
| Battery-electric | A fully electric car, with no gasoline engine |
| Coverage rate | Our captured count divided by the count the company reports |
| Days on Market (DOM) | Within a single sales opportunity spell, it is the number of days a vehicle has been listed for sale anywhere, counted from its first appearance in Compass and carried across dealers, so it survives a transfer or a dealer trade. Reported as Active DOM (mean age of vehicles on the lot at quarter end) and Sold DOM (mean age at sale). It measures the vehicle’s full exposure to the market, which is what drives depreciation and floorplan cost. |
| Days on Site (DOS) | Within a single sales opportunity spell, it is the number of days a vehicle has been listed by its current selling store, restarting at zero when a vehicle moves to a new store or appears on a new selling channel. DOS reflects the clock the store itself manages against. It is the better measure of a dealer’s own pricing and markdown discipline. Where DOS runs well below DOM, the difference indicates inventory that reached the current seller or channel after time elsewhere. For groups that syndicate inventory through a central website, the gap may reflect the channel rather than physical transfers between stores. |
| Discount from first listed price | How far a sold car's final price was below the first price we saw on its listing |
| Electrified | Hybrids of all kinds plus battery-electric cars |
| F&I (Finance & Insurance) | Income dealers earn arranging loans, warranties and insurance when a car is sold |
| Gross profit per car | What a dealer earns on a car before overhead; the industry calls it GPU (gross profit per unit) |
| Listing Price Position | Where a dealer sets a used car's first asking price relative to our estimate of its market value |
| Market Days Supply | How many days the stock on the last day of the quarter would last at the average daily selling rate of the 45 days ending that day. A property of the whole inventory, not of any one vehicle. Not the same as days on market. |
| MarketCheck Price | MarketCheck's model estimate of a vehicle's market value, retrained weekly on the past three months of the market |
| MSRP (Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price) | The sticker price the carmaker recommends |
| pp (percentage points) | The difference between two percentages: 5% to 7% is +2 pp |
| Rebranding | Group 1's renaming of its U.S. stores under the Group 1 name, with new store websites |
| Same-store | Comparing only the stores Group 1 owned through both periods, so store purchases and sales do not distort growth |
| Service loaner (interim rule) | A car a dealer keeps for service customers to drive while their own is repaired; in this report, any used car listed more than 180 days at the same store, until a company-wide definition is set |
| Selling Margin Pressure | The average markdown, in dollars per used car sold, beyond a seller's usual allowance on cars that took longer than usual to sell, measured against the seller's own previous 12 months; it describes selling behavior, not profit |
| Sold days on market | See Days on Market (DOM): the mean age at sale of the cars sold in the quarter |
| Sold within 30 days on site | Share of listings at a selling store that sold with 30 or fewer days on site, counted only for listings we could follow for a full 30 days |
| Used-to-new ratio | Used cars sold for every new car sold |
| YoY (year over year) | This quarter against the same quarter a year earlier |
| (our interpretation) | A conclusion we drew from the data: reasonable, not certain |
| (management's own disclosure) | Something Group 1's executives said or filed publicly |
| (our educated guess) | A plausible explanation that fits the data but that we cannot confirm |

*Prepared by MarketCheck Research using the Anthropic Claude LLM. This report describes North American retail vehicle transaction activity only and is not investment advice.*

We welcome your feedback. To offer comments, suggestions for future coverage, or to inquire about licensing this report or the MarketCheck data behind it, including vehicle-level sales, inventory and pricing data, contact Bryant Sheehy at [bryant.sheehy@marketcheck.com](mailto:bryant.sheehy@marketcheck.com).

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