Ford Motor Company (F) · Q3 2026

S1Our Overall Take

Ford sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles through about 3,000 franchise dealers in North America, led by the F-Series pickups, the Explorer, the Bronco family and the Maverick. Our data follows what happens on those dealers' lots: how many cars sell, at what price, how long they wait for a buyer and how much stock is building. This report covers July through September 2026.

Ford lost ground to the market on new vehicles. New Ford and Lincoln sales in our data fell 9.6% from a year ago, against a captured new-vehicle market down 3.0%, and Ford's share of new-vehicle sales fell 0.9 points to 11.8%. Against the second quarter, new sales fell 5.1% and share 0.4 points.

Most of the drop is planned. The Escape and Lincoln Corsair are being retired, and Ford has cut its electric lineup: together these account for more than the whole decline. Without them, new sales rose 2.6%. The F-Series fell 3.6%.

The core lineup sold further below sticker. New Fords sold 5.7% below the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP, the "sticker"), against 4.8% a year ago, while the whole market moved slightly closer to sticker. The gap widened on the F-150, the Explorer and the Bronco Sport. That is a pricing reading, not a profit measure.

Cars sold faster, and the average price rose on mix. New vehicles that sold took 95 days on average, 6 days faster than a year ago, and the F-150 took 72 days against 101. The average transaction price rose 2.7% as buyers moved into larger and off-road models.

Why the retail channel is cautiously bearish: volume and share fell more than the market and discounts deepened on the nameplates that carry Ford's revenue. Faster sales and a new-car inventory inside Ford's own normal range keep this from a bearish read.

Why the composite is neutral: Ford Credit, Ford Pro's fleet business, commodities, aluminum-supply costs and Model e investment sit outside our data and can set the direction of reported earnings on their own (Section 12). Management's guidance for the second half carries both headwinds and tailwinds in those lines.

S2The Quarter in Numbers

Ford's share fell on both a yearly and a quarterly comparison while the captured market fell 3.0%, so this is Ford losing ground, not the market shrinking around it. Revenue share runs about 1.6 points above unit share, a richer-than-average mix, and that gap barely moved.

S3Inventory and Pricing Risk

New Market Days Supply of 103 sits at the middle of Ford's own normal range (96 to 106 days, the middle half of its last 15 quarters). It rose about 12 days from June 30 as dealers restocked, which management said it expected. New-vehicle Market Days Supply counts every advertised unit, including units advertised before they reach the dealership; company-reported figures count stock on the lot and are not directly comparable.

The build is concentrated in sport-utility vehicles. Explorer inventory is 48% above a year ago, Expedition 55% and Lincoln Navigator 67%, and a larger share of each has been waiting more than 90 days (Section 5). Lincoln carries about 126% of the supply of comparable luxury brands.

Used Ford and Lincoln stock across franchise and independent dealers is the bigger build: up 16.2% from a year ago, with brand used Market Days Supply of 59 at the top of its range since 2023. For Ford this is a dealer-health reading: dealers are carrying more used stock, which they pay interest on and must clear to make room for new cars (Section 5b).

S4Electric Vehicles, Geography, and the Two Cases

Electric vehicles. New battery-electric sales fell 73.8% to 8,688, and fully electric vehicles fell to 1.8% of new sales from 6.2%. The F-150 Lightning has been discontinued and Mustang Mach-E production was cut to demand (management's own disclosure), and the year-ago quarter was inflated by buyers rushing to beat the end of the federal purchase credit on September 30, 2025. The whole market's new battery-electric sales fell 52.6%. Hybrids were 10.0% of new sales, led by the Maverick.

Geography. Texas, Ford's largest state, was flat (−0.1%), and Florida fell 3.3%. California fell 17.3% and Michigan 17.7%.

The positive case. Outside the planned exits, Ford's new sales grew 2.6%. Cars sold faster than a year ago, the F-150 fastest of all, and the average price rose as buyers moved up into off-road trims and larger sport-utility vehicles. Used Ford prices rose 4.6%, so the resale values behind Ford's lease book, its lease pricing on new cars and its buyers' trade-ins did not weaken (Section 5b).

The negative case. Ford's share fell more than the planned exits explain on the quarterly comparison, its core nameplates sold further below sticker against a market moving the other way, and new sport-utility stock is building faster than sales. Dealers' used stock is building too, a dealer-health reading outside the verdict (Section 5b).

01Overall Verdict and Confidence

This is a read on Ford's North American retail vehicle channel, not a rating on the company. North American retail transactions are only part of Ford's revenue and profit, and a strong or weak channel signal does not translate directly into a global company result.

Why the retail channel is cautiously bearish: new volume fell 9.6% against a market down 3.0%, and Ford's new unit share fell 0.9 points from a year ago and 0.4 points from the second quarter. The planned exits explain the yearly decline, but discounts from sticker widened on the F-150, Explorer and Bronco Sport while the market's narrowed, and new sport-utility stock built faster than sales. The positive evidence is real: new cars sold 6 days faster than a year ago, the F-150 29 days faster, and the average price rose 2.7% on mix. Used-vehicle readings are reported in Section 5b and sit outside this verdict.

Why the composite is neutral: Ford is a global manufacturer whose captive lender, commercial fleet business, software, warranty, commodity costs and electric-vehicle investment together make up a large share of earnings and are invisible to us. On the July 28 call management guided a second half with about $1.4 to $1.5 billion of commodity cost and about $700 million of remaining aluminum-supply cost against a volume recovery in F-Series and Super Duty and continued mix and pricing gains (management's own disclosure). Those lines point in different directions, so the composite does not exceed neutral. Because the retail channel is negative and the guided unseen lines are mixed, the overlay is as likely to understate as to overstate the earnings outcome.

Confidence is Medium on both. Our counts are captured retail transactions in the United States and Canada; Ford reports wholesale shipments and total U.S. sales including fleet, which can move differently in a restocking quarter (Section 12).

02Signal Summary Table

03Detailed Sales Numbers

Why it matters: units sold times average price is the closest shadow our data offers of the vehicle revenue Ford's dealers generate. Ford books revenue when it ships to dealers, not when dealers sell, so the two can diverge for a quarter at a time.

New vehicles

Used vehicles

Where the new-vehicle decline came from. New sales fell 51,540 units. The Escape and Corsair, both being retired, fell 39,013; the battery-electric Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning and E-Transit fell 24,524; the F-Series fell 7,256 (−3.6%). Everything else rose 7.5%. Excluding the planned exits and the electric models, new sales rose 2.6%.

The month-by-month path. New sales fell 14.8% in July, 8.8% in August and 4.3% in September from a year earlier, against the market's −7.0%, −2.4% and +0.8%. Ford trailed the market by about 6 to 8 points in every month. The July 2025 comparison was the strongest month of the year-ago quarter for both Ford and the market.

Mix lifted the average price. The average new price rose $1,554 from a year ago. Off-road models and trims (the Bronco family, plus Raptor, Tremor, Timberline, Badlands and Wildtrak trims) rose to 21.7% of U.S. new sales in our data from 18.0% (a name-matched measure narrower than Ford's own off-road definition). Within the F-150 the average price rose 2.2%, so prices rose within models as well as through mix.

By state (new).

Texas and Florida held up. California, the third-largest state, fell 17.3%; California was also the strongest year-ago market for electric vehicles ahead of the credit's end, which may explain part of the decline (our educated guess). Michigan fell 17.7% and is down 12.8% from the second quarter.

04Top Models Sold

Why it matters: the F-150 alone is more than a quarter of Ford's new revenue in our data, and the top seven nameplates are more than 70%. How those few models sell, and at what price against sticker, drives the retail picture.

New

The F-150 sold much faster at a deeper discount. F-150 sales fell 3.1% from a year ago but rose 6.1% from the second quarter, and the trucks that sold took 72 days against 101 a year ago. They also sold 7.4% below sticker against 6.2%. Management said the F-150 had the lowest incentive spending in its segment (management's own disclosure); incentives are not visible in our data, and a wider gap to sticker can reflect trim and option mix as well as price.

The Explorer grew, but slower and cheaper. Explorer sales rose 11.6%, but sold Explorers took 90 days against 66 a year ago and sold 7.6% below sticker against 4.8%. The Bronco Sport shows the same pattern: up 9.0%, slower and 2.8 points further below sticker.

Lincoln fell 16.9%. The Corsair is being retired; the Nautilus (+17.2%) and Aviator (+17.8%) grew. Lincoln's share of the new-vehicle market fell 0.1 points to 0.6%, below our 0.3-point materiality level.

Our nameplate figures track Ford's own release. Ford's third-quarter U.S. sales release reported Explorer +11.2%, Expedition −9.1%, Bronco +0.4%, Maverick +20.4% and Mustang Mach-E −72.4% (management's own disclosure), close to our U.S. figures for the same models. Ford reported the F-Series up 3.0% and the Bronco Sport up 12.7%, against −4.8% and +2.9% in our U.S. data; Ford's figures include fleet sales that do not pass through retail listings, and management said delayed Super Duty fleet orders would be made up in the second half (management's own disclosure).

Used

Used sales and prices by model are read in Section 5b. Ford does not earn revenue on these resales; they matter to it through its lease book, the cost of selling new cars, trade-ins and dealer health.

05What's Sitting on the Lots (Inventory)

Why it matters: a car that sits costs the dealer interest every day and tends to sell for less in the end. A growing pile of older stock is tomorrow's clearance problem, and for a manufacturer it is the stock that eventually needs factory support to move.

New: rebuilt from June, below a year ago, with the build in sport-utility vehicles. New stock rose 5.7% from June 30 and is 7.2% below a year ago. The share over 90 days fell to 36.0% from 38.5% at June 30. Pickups are 46.7% of new stock and sport-utility vehicles 41.6%; 63.0% of new stock is listed above $50,000.

The F-150 lot is younger than a year ago: 27.7% of it over 90 days against 38.2%. The Explorer, Expedition, Bronco 4-Door and Navigator lots are larger and older, and the Explorer is selling more slowly (Section 4). These four nameplates together hold about 136,000 new vehicles, a quarter of Ford's new stock.

Used. Used Ford and Lincoln stock is read in Section 5b.

Asking premium on unsold stock. The average list price of new cars for sale at September 30 sat 5.0% above the average price of new cars sold in the quarter, against 2.1% a year ago; for used stock across dealers, 4.5% against 5.7%, a dealer-health reading (Section 5b). Both are below our 10% watch line. The two groups are different cars, so the trend matters more than the level.

5bResidual Value (used vehicles, outside the composite)

Ford earns almost nothing when a dealer resells a used Ford, and used sales are not part of Ford's revenue. Used figures matter to Ford for four reasons. Lease book: Ford Credit sets a residual value when it writes a lease and sells the car into the used market when it comes back. Cost of selling new cars: lease payments depend on that residual, so resale values feed the lease support Ford provides to keep payments competitive. Trade-ins: most new-car buyers trade in a vehicle, often a Ford, and its value is part of what they effectively pay. Dealer health: franchise dealers earn much of their profit on used cars, pay interest on every car in stock and need lot space for new cars. This reading sits outside the composite verdict and does not move it.

Used prices (lease book, cost of selling new cars, trade-ins). The average used Ford and Lincoln sold for $28,585, 4.6% more than a year ago. Used F-150, Super Duty, Expedition and Mustang prices rose 2.5% to 7.1%, while the Explorer (−1.0%) and Bronco Sport (−4.2%) fell; the discontinued Edge and Fusion fell in volume and price, as expected for nameplates aging out of the market. On Ford's highest-volume used nameplates, the resale values behind its leases, its lease pricing on new cars and its buyers' trade-ins did not weaken; on the Explorer and Bronco Sport they softened.

Used electric cars (lease book). Used fully electric Fords sold by dealers rose 32.2% to 10,949 and sold 6 days faster than a year ago, as lease returns reach dealers (our interpretation) (Section 8). Returned electric cars are clearing faster, an input to how those leases settle.

Dealers' used stock (dealer health). Used stock rose 8.0% from June 30 and 16.2% from a year ago to 428,980, and the share over 90 days rose to 28.6% from 24.4%. Brand used Market Days Supply of 59 is the highest in the 15 quarters since 2023, inside that range at its top, and one in three used Fords for sale has more than 100,000 miles (33.0%). Dealers are carrying more and older used stock than a year ago: stock they pay interest on and must clear to make room for new cars. The count covers franchise and independent dealers; the part held by franchise dealers is the part that bears on dealer health.

Used sales (dealer health, lease book). Dealers sold 675,448 used Fords and Lincolns, 7.7% fewer than a year ago, and those that sold took 48 days against 47. These are the dealers' sales, not Ford's: they describe dealers' used business, franchise and independent, and, through how fast cars clear, the market that returned lease cars are sold into.

06Pricing Against Sticker

Why it matters: the price a new car sells for against its sticker is the cleanest read our data gives on how hard dealers are working to move metal. It is a demand and pricing measure, not a profit measure: it says nothing about what Ford earns on each vehicle, and factory support delivered through subsidized financing or leases never shows up in the advertised price at all.

Ford's new vehicles sold further below sticker than a year ago and than last quarter, while the market moved the other way. Within Ford, the widening is concentrated in the Explorer (−2.9 points), Bronco Sport (−2.8 points), Mustang Mach-E (−2.6 points), Aviator (−2.2 points), Nautilus (−2.0 points) and F-150 (−1.2 points). The Expedition and Mustang held level.

6cDealer discount and factory cash in the price (F-150)

On most new trucks, dealers advertise the price after the manufacturer's customer cash has been taken off. The discount from sticker is therefore the dealer's own markdown plus most of the factory cash. We separate the two from how advertised prices behave: when a monthly cash program expires, prices step up by the cash amount at the month boundary, and they step down when the next program posts.

About 3.2 points of the F-150's discount from sticker is factory cash built into the advertised price and about 4.6 points is the dealer's own markdown. The dealer discount sits close to the discount at dealers who never build in factory cash (4.3% on the same trim mix), which is the check that the split is working. The factory-cash share rose through the quarter, from 2.5% of sticker in July to 4.5% in September. These are quarterly averages across thousands of dealers; they are not a margin measure and say nothing about what Ford spends on incentives in total.

The Explorer is not shown this quarter: its split failed our quality check (Section 12).

07Days to Sell and Market Days Supply

7aDays on Market (how long each car takes)

New vehicles that sold took 95 days on average, 6 days faster than a year ago, against a market average of 72 days. The median was unchanged at 64 days, so the improvement came from fewer very slow sales, led by the F-150. Used cars sold slightly slower than a year ago, and the unsold used car had been listed 83 days on average; for Ford these used readings bear on dealer health (Section 5b).

7bMarket Days Supply (how long the whole lot would last)

Market Days Supply divides the cars on hand at September 30 by the average number sold per day in the 45 days ending that day (August 17 to September 30).

New Market Days Supply of 103 sits in the middle of Ford's own normal range (96 to 106 days, median 103). It rose 12 days from June 30 and fell 3 days from a year ago. New-vehicle Market Days Supply counts every advertised unit, including units advertised before they reach the dealership; company-reported figures count stock on the lot and are not directly comparable.

The used figure, brand used Market Days Supply, is a brand measure across all dealers' used Ford and Lincoln stock, franchise and independent; there is no company figure to compare it with, so it is read only against its own prior quarters. At 59 days it is the highest in the 15 quarters since 2023, up 9 days from a year ago and 6 days from June 30. For Ford it is a dealer-health reading (Section 5b).

F-Series. F-Series new Market Days Supply was 104 at September 30, against 91 at June 30 and 113 a year ago.

Coherence check. Sold days on market divided by Market Days Supply is 92% for new (expected range 69% to 108%) and 82% for used (82% to 124%). Both are coherent. Used sits at the bottom edge of its range, so this check no longer shows on its own that recently listed used cars are selling while older stock accumulates; the aging of the used lot rests on the rise in the used share over 90 days (Section 5b).

Against comparable brands. Each figure shows a Ford brand's new-vehicle Market Days Supply as a percentage of the franchise benchmark: the median across franchise dealers of comparable brands at the same date. 100% means the brand is in line with franchise dealers of comparable brands; below 100% means it carries less supply than they do, and above 100% more.

The Ford brand carries about 9% more supply than mainstream peers, about the same as at June 30 (110%) and less excess than a year ago (121%). Lincoln jumped from below its luxury peers at June 30 (96%) to 126% of their level at September 30, about where it was a year ago (127%).

08Electric Vehicle Sales

Why it matters: the federal electric-vehicle purchase credit ended on September 30, 2025, so buyers pulled purchases into the year-ago quarter, and Ford has since discontinued the F-150 Lightning and cut Mustang Mach-E production to demand (management's own disclosure). The year-over-year decline is mostly planned; the question is whether the remaining electric cars are selling cleanly.

The planned part. New fully electric sales fell 73.8%, against 52.6% for the whole market. The Lightning fell to 428 units and the Mach-E to 8,078, in line with management's stated plan to match Mach-E output to demand and end the Lightning (management's own disclosure).

The remaining electric lineup. The Mach-E, the only electric Ford above 1,000 units, sold in 110 days against 95 a year ago, at 6.7% below sticker against 4.1%. Its sales rose 2.3% from the second quarter. That is slower and deeper-discounted sell-through on a nameplate that is now 1.4% of Ford's new revenue.

Hybrids and used electric cars. Hybrids were 10.0% of new sales. Maverick hybrid sales rose 55.7% to 31,744, while F-150 hybrid sales fell 55.7% to 9,831. Used fully electric Fords sold by dealers rose 32.2% and sold 6 days faster than a year ago, led by the used Mach-E (7,956 units) and Lightning (2,436) as lease returns reach dealers (our interpretation). Faster clearing of returned electric cars is an input to Ford's lease book (Section 5b).

09The Positive Case

Outside the planned exits, the lineup grew. Excluding the Escape, Corsair and electric models, Ford's new sales rose 2.6% against a market down 3.0%; the Maverick (+17.5%), Explorer (+11.6%), Ranger (+12.9%), Bronco Sport (+9.0%) and Nautilus (+17.2%) all grew. Ford's own release reported its total volume excluding the Escape and Corsair as essentially unchanged against an industry down about 1% (management's own disclosure).

The F-150, 27.5% of new revenue, is selling fast. Sold F-150s took 72 days against 101 a year ago, and the F-150 lot is younger than a year ago. Ford raised F-Series production 4.5% in the quarter (management's own disclosure), so dealers going into the fourth quarter have more trucks to sell into what our data shows is quick demand (our interpretation).

Mix is rising. The average new price rose 2.7% while the market's rose 2.1%, and off-road models and trims rose to 21.7% of U.S. new sales from 18.0%. Used Ford prices rose 4.6%, so the resale values that Ford's lease book, its lease pricing on new cars and its buyers' trade-ins depend on did not weaken (Section 5b).

10The Negative Case

Share fell beyond the planned exits on the quarterly comparison. Ford's new unit share fell 0.4 points from the second quarter, when the Escape and Corsair together were only 20,297 units, and Ford trailed the market in every month of the quarter.

The F-150, Explorer and Bronco Sport together make up 43.0% of new revenue, and the Explorer's lot is 48.3% larger than a year ago.

Discounts deepened on the nameplates that matter. All three sold further below sticker than a year ago while the market moved closer to sticker. On the Explorer, sales slowed and the gap to sticker widened by 2.9 points. With its larger lot, these point the same way: two co-moving signals raise the risk that Explorer volume growth is being bought with price (our interpretation). Profit per vehicle is not visible in our data; the discount reading does not measure it.

Stock is building where sales are slowing. Explorer, Expedition and Navigator stock is up 48% to 67% from a year ago with a much larger share over 90 days, Lincoln carries 126% of the supply of luxury peers, and dealers' used Ford stock is at its highest level against sales since 2023. The used build is a dealer-health reading: it is stock dealers pay interest on and must clear to make room for new cars (Section 5b). A large aged sport-utility lot is historically associated with heavier discounting in the following quarter.

11ADid Management Get It Right Last Quarter?

Sources: Ford Motor Company Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (July 28, 2026), Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (quarterly report) and Ford's Q3 2026 U.S. sales release (October 2, 2026). "Fact" claims describe the prior quarter; "Guidance" claims describe this one.

Management's restocking and mix guidance is borne out in our data. The F-Series recovery shows only partly at retail, and Ford's day-supply figures are on a different basis from ours: we count every advertised vehicle in the United States and Canada, so our level runs well above Ford's U.S. on-lot count.

11BWhat to Watch on the Earnings Call

1. Wholesale versus retail. Ford books revenue on shipments to dealers. With new stock up 5.7% from June 30 and F-Series production up 4.5%, how much of the third quarter's wholesale volume went into dealer stock rather than to customers, and how much was Super Duty fleet catch-up?
2. Pricing on the Explorer and Bronco Sport. Both sold 2.8 to 2.9 points further below sticker than a year ago while their lots grew. Does management describe net pricing on these nameplates as positive, and did incentive spending rise?
3. Sport-utility and Lincoln stock. Explorer, Expedition and Navigator stock is up 48% to 67% from a year ago and Lincoln carries 126% of its luxury peers' supply. Is this planned stocking for the fourth quarter, or a build ahead of demand?
4. Electric lineup and used residuals. The Mach-E is selling more slowly and further below sticker, while used electric Fords are clearing faster at dealers, an input to the lease book (Section 5b). What does management say about Mach-E demand and about off-lease electric residual values in Ford Credit's book?
5. How the second-half cost bridge splits by quarter. Management guided about $1.4 to $1.5 billion of commodity cost and about $700 million of remaining aluminum-supply cost for the second half, and about $1 billion of extra investment in the new electric platform and Ford Energy, weighted to the second half. How much of each landed in the third quarter rather than the fourth? These are outside our data and can move the reported result in either direction.

11CPost-Print Accuracy Summary (Ford Q3 2026 Results, October 28, 2026)

What this section is: This section was added after Ford Motor Company reported third-quarter 2026 results on October 28, 2026. Everything above it is the report as written, unchanged.

Scorecard: Of 32 vehicle-transaction calls that could be tested against what Ford reported, 26 were confirmed, 5 were partly right and 1 was missed. Another 7 could not be tested because Ford gave no figure for them this quarter, among them nameplate-level stock a year ago, per-unit incentive spending and used days' supply. Both verdicts held. The Cautiously Bearish read on Ford's North American retail channel matched Ford Blue, the gasoline and hybrid business that carries the retail lineup: wholesales fell 10%, revenue 3% and earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) 10%, with net pricing slightly negative (−$53 million) and favorable mix. The Neutral composite also held: company adjusted EBIT rose 3% to $2.7 billion on revenue down 2% to $49.5 billion, and the low end of full-year guidance was raised to $10.5 to $11 billion, as Ford Credit (+27%) and a 25% smaller Model e loss offset weaker Ford Blue and Ford Pro results. Those lines sit outside vehicle transactions in our data, and the report said they could move the result in either direction.

What we got right: The retail call and its causes matched Ford’s own account: lower volume from the end of the Escape and Corsair and a smaller electric lineup, offset by a richer mix of trucks, three-row sport-utility vehicles and off-road models, with pricing slightly negative. Our new-unit decline of 9.6% sat within a point of Ford Blue’s 10% wholesale decline. Faster sales were the right positive weight: Ford reported its fastest turn rates of the year, and the F-150, which sold 29 days faster in our data, ended the quarter still lean. Our new stock rose 5.7% from June 30 and Ford said about 6%, and reading that build against Ford’s own normal range rather than as a warning proved right. Ford’s nameplate release tied to our data within about a point on the retail-led nameplates (Explorer, Maverick, Bronco, Mach-E, Lincoln); the larger gaps sat in F-Series, Ranger, Bronco Sport and Expedition, where fleet sales are large and which our data does not count. The Neutral composite held because the report put no lean on the businesses it cannot see, and they split both ways.

What we missed and why: The one miss sits in the used-vehicle section, outside both verdicts. We read used Ford prices up 4.6% as a sign that the resale values behind Ford Credit’s lease book had not weakened; Ford Credit reported U.S. off-lease auction values down 3% at constant mix, on more used supply across the industry. Our figure was an average across all ages and all dealers, which moves with mix, while a lease book turns on two-to-four-year-old cars sold at auction. Part of any price change across spring 2026 is also how dealers advertise: franchise dealers began including mandatory fees in advertised prices following Federal Trade Commission (FTC) enforcement, and the size of that part is not estimated; that caveat should have sat beside the price figures in the summary as well as in Section 6. Our vehicle revenue fell faster than Ford’s reported revenue because Ford booked revenue on about 25,700 more U.S. shipments than sales as dealers restocked. The negative case leaned on the quarterly share comparison, when Ford’s own retail share excluding the planned exits rose about 0.4 points (a company figure, so no change in our capture of Ford is involved), and our own figures outside the exits pointed the same way. We also said the Explorer’s growth risked being bought with price; Ford attributed it to its higher-priced Tremor and Platinum trims, up nearly 60% this year.

Bottom line: Read this report for the direction of Ford’s retail volume, sell-through speed, mix and new-vehicle stock, which held up, and for the composite’s warning that Ford Credit and Model e could move the result either way, which they did. Read its used-price section as a description of dealer prices, not of the auction values that drive Ford Credit, and read its unit counts as retail only: Ford’s own U.S. sales include fleet.

12Methodology and Glossary

Where the data comes from

Data source: MarketCheck Compass: North American new and used retail sales and the daily inventory panel, filtered to Ford Motor Company's manufacturer ticker (Ford and Lincoln). Sales cover July–September 2026 (current quarter), April–June 2026 (prior quarter) and July–September 2025 (year-ago quarter). The inventory snapshot is September 30, 2026, the true quarter-end. Geographic figures reflect the physical location of the vehicle. Figures include the United States and Canada; about 13% of new sales in our data are in Canada.

Compass totals, Q3 2026: new 485,829 units and $27.2B; used 675,448 units and $16.8B; combined $44.0B. These are dealers' retail sales; the used figures are not Ford's sales or revenue.

Quarter-end inventory: 547,556 new and 428,980 used.

Basis line. Inventory basis: Compass panel. Sold and active days on market: measured from the first day the vehicle was advertised (opportunity start date). Market Days Supply: active units at quarter-end divided by average daily sales over the 45 calendar days to quarter-end, August 17 to September 30, 2026 (ds_denominator = t45). Baselines installed October 19, 2026. Ford's reported figures use a one-month selling rate (the last 30 days or the calendar month) and count stock on the lot; ours use the 45 calendar days to quarter-end and count every advertised unit, so the two are compared directly with that difference disclosed. New-vehicle Market Days Supply counts every advertised unit, including units advertised before they reach the dealership; company-reported figures count stock on the lot and are not directly comparable. Ford's own new Market Days Supply reference range is 96 to 106 days (the middle half of its last 15 quarters); there is no industry band for manufacturers.

Market share denominator. Market share is computed against MarketCheck Compass-captured North American retail transactions for the same period, not against total US registrations or company-reported deliveries. Coverage of new-vehicle retail runs approximately 80–95% of the actual market and varies by brand, so these figures are a consistent relative measure across periods, not an absolute share of the true market.

Retail sales versus shipments. Our data measures retail sales by dealers to customers. Ford reports wholesale shipments to dealers and total U.S. sales including fleet. A strong quarter on one does not guarantee a strong quarter on the other, especially when dealers are restocking, as they were this quarter.

Captured-basis reporting and the coverage record

Volume, revenue and share in this report are what MarketCheck captured, not Ford's results. Our numerator is U.S. new Ford and Lincoln retail sales in our data; Ford's denominator is its reported total U.S. sales, which include fleet and medium and heavy trucks and are based partly on registrations.

Because Ford's figure includes fleet, this is a ratio of captured retail to total sales, not a pure retail coverage rate. Our U.S. new sales fell 10.4% from a year ago against Ford's reported 6.6%; the ratio fell 3.6 points between the two quarters. Management said delayed Super Duty fleet orders would be made up in the second half, and fleet sales sit outside our data, which is consistent with the difference (our educated guess). The gap should be assumed to recur; its size should not be assumed. Our volume and share comparisons are read as the volume evidence in this report, on the captured basis described here.

Nameplate check. Every nameplate above 5% of new revenue was checked against Ford's own release. None differs by more than 10 points; the F-Series (7.8 points) and Bronco Sport (9.8 points) come closest, both in the direction expected if fleet is the difference. Last quarter our Explorer and Expedition growth (11.4%) was about 10.6 points below management's 22% retail figure.

What our quality checks found

Inventory snapshot date. September 30, 2026, the true quarter-end.

Dealer discount method (Section 6c). The split infers factory cash from synchronized round-number price steps (at least $1,000, in multiples of $250) at month boundaries: a rise when a cash program expires, a fall when the next posts, and the prior month's amount carried forward when no step is seen. MarketCheck does not observe the cash amount directly. The split is reported only for nameplates that passed a validation run and that pass a quality check each quarter; for Ford those are the F-150 and Explorer. Figures are averages across price-change records in July to September, with June used to start the series. No dealer-level or vehicle-level figure is published.

Management's stated day supply. Ford stated U.S. retail days' supply of 52 and F-Series of about 45 at June 30, 2026; it did not state a used figure. Our U.S.-only Market Days Supply figures at the same date were 92 and 91 (176% and 203% of management's), on the 45 days to June 30 and every advertised unit.

Lenses. Revenue nowcasting is applied to retail sales only and does not translate to Ford's reported revenue, which is booked on shipments. Brand equity (used values) is read in Section 5b and sits outside the composite: Ford earns almost nothing on a used sale, and used figures are inputs to its lease book, the cost of selling new cars, trade-ins and dealer health, which our data does not see.

Off-road measure. Our off-road share counts the Bronco, Bronco 4-Door, Bronco 2-Door and Bronco Sport plus any trim named Raptor, Tremor, Timberline, Badlands or Wildtrak. Ford's own off-road lineup definition is broader; Ford reported 123,507 off-road units in the third quarter, up 12.2% (management's own disclosure).

What we cannot see

Outside MarketCheck's scope for Ford: wholesale shipments and production; fleet sales not advertised at retail, including most of Ford Pro's commercial business; Ford Credit; parts, service and software and connected-services revenue; Model e and Ford Energy losses and investment; warranty and recall costs; tariffs; operations outside North America; and profit per vehicle.

Commodity / raw-material exposure (NOT observable in MarketCheck): steel, aluminum (elevated for Ford because of the aluminum-bodied F-Series), palladium and platinum, and copper. Hedging programs partially offset short-term volatility; the net commodity headwind or tailwind on adjusted earnings is disclosed in management's quarterly bridge and is structurally larger for truck-heavy manufacturers. Management guided a full-year commodity headwind of just above $2 billion, about $500 million of it incurred in the first half; aluminum-supply costs of about $1.5 billion for the year, $800 million incurred by June; and Ford Credit pre-tax earnings above $2.5 billion (management's own disclosure, July 28, 2026; subject to revision). How the second-half amounts split between the third and fourth quarters was not disclosed.

Sources of figures. Every figure in this report comes from MarketCheck data unless the text names another source, such as a company filing or management's comments on its earnings call. Only figures from those other sources carry a source label.

Plain-English Glossary

Prepared by MarketCheck Research using the Anthropic Claude LLM. This report describes North American retail vehicle transaction activity only and is not investment advice.

We welcome your feedback. To offer comments, suggestions for future coverage, or to inquire about licensing this report or the MarketCheck data behind it, including vehicle-level sales, inventory and pricing data, contact Bryant Sheehy at bryant.sheehy@marketcheck.com.