# Carvana Co. (CVNA): Q3 2026 Pre-Earnings Channel Check

Canonical URL: https://ai.marketcheck.com/i/s/cvna-q3-2026

**Free sample**: the post-print edition, with the accuracy review against the reported results. Carvana Co. reported on Oct 28, 2026. Investor Desk: https://ai.marketcheck.com/investor · PDF: https://ai.marketcheck.com/api/investor/pdf/s-cvna-q3-2026

Not investment advice. MarketCheck is a data and analytics company, not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer.

## What the report says

North American Vehicle Transaction Signal

- Signal: Cautiously bullish. Confidence: Medium.

Carvana sold 203,895 used vehicles in our data between July and September, 9.9% more than in the June quarter and 37.2% more than a year ago, while the used market we capture shrank 3.5%. Its share of captured used sales rose 1.2 percentage points to 3.9%. The average car sold after 28 days on Carvana's site, level with the June quarter and a year ago and well ahead of the market on sell-through, and the average last listed price held at $27,782, up 5.3% on the year, roughly half of it from a newer, more expensive mix.

Two measures keep the call short of Bullish. The lot grew 30.7% year over year against sales up 37.2%, so stock is still growing more slowly than sales at a company whose management says inventory is the constraint on growth, although it grew faster than sales on the quarter. And more cars sold below their opening asking price: 62.8% against 53.6% a year ago, with the average car giving up 2.9% of its first ask against 2.5%.

The measures that would change this call are the gap between inventory growth and sales growth, and the share of cars sold below their first ask.

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**Post-Print Version: accuracy summary added October 29, 2026 (see Section 11C)**

# PART 1: SUMMARY

## Our Overall Take

**CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH | Confidence: MEDIUM**

Carvana reports its third quarter on 28 October. All comparisons below are with the June quarter (quarter over quarter, QoQ) or with the same quarter a year ago (year over year, YoY). Our data shows a retailer still growing far faster than the market, at steady prices, with its lot growing more slowly than its sales.

**Volume and share kept climbing in a shrinking market.** Carvana sold 203,895 used vehicles in our data between July and September, 9.9% more than in the June quarter and 37.2% more than a year ago, generating $5.7B of vehicle transaction revenue, up 44.4%. The used market we capture fell 3.5% over the same year. Carvana's share of captured used sales rose 0.4 percentage points (pp) on the quarter and 1.2 on the year, to 3.9%. On a panel of the fulfillment sites that sold in both periods, units rose 33.1%; the rest of the growth came from sites that opened or ramped up during the year.

**Cars sold at a steady pace, at steady prices.** The average car sold after 28 days on Carvana's site (Days on Site, DOS: the days from its first advertisement by its selling site to sale), about a day faster than in the June quarter and level with a year ago; the typical car sold in 22 days. The average selling price was $27,782, flat on the quarter and up 5.3% on the year. About half of that annual rise is a newer, more expensive mix and about half is higher prices for comparable cars: on a like-for-like basis, holding the year-ago mix of vehicle age and body style fixed, prices rose 2.8%.

**The lot is still growing more slowly than sales.** Carvana's quarter-end inventory was 76,984 cars, up 12.2% on the quarter against sales up 9.9%, so the lot gained ground sequentially. Year over year it is a different picture: inventory up 30.7% against sales up 37.2%, a gap of 6.4 points that has opened from roughly level in the June quarter. Management told investors on 29 July that inventory had grown more slowly than sales, that this weighs on conversion, and that catching up is a priority. Our data says the catch-up began this quarter but has not closed the annual gap.

**More cars came off their opening price.** 62.8% of cars sold below the price Carvana first listed them at, against 53.6% a year ago and 42.2% in the June quarter. The average car gave up 2.9% of its first ask, against 2.5% a year ago. The cut on a discounted car was about the same as a year ago, so the change is in how many cars were cut, not how hard. At the same time Carvana's opening prices sat exactly at the market's level relative to our estimate of each car's value, unchanged from a year ago, so the wider discounting does not come from asking more at the start.

Cautiously Bullish follows. Growth, share and sell-through are strong and are read the same way whether or not our capture of Carvana's sales changed. The inventory-to-sales gap and the breadth of discounting are the two measures that would change the call.

## The Quarter in Numbers

| Measure | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2025 | vs. Q2 | vs. year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Used vehicles sold | 203,895 | 185,600 | 148,637 | +9.9% | +37.2% |
| Used vehicle transaction revenue | $5.7B | $5.1B | $3.9B | +10.5% | +44.4% |
| Average selling price | $27,782 | $27,618 | $26,383 | +0.6% | +5.3% |
| Used unit share of captured market | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | +0.4pp | +1.2pp |
| Used revenue share of captured market | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | +0.4pp | +1.3pp |
| Sold days on site (mean / median) | 28 / 22 | 28 / 21 | 28 / 21 | −1d | 0d |
| Active used inventory | 76,984 | 68,592 | 58,883 | +12.2% | +30.7% |
| Active days on site (mean / median) | 31 / 20 | 30 / 19 | 28 / 20 | +1d | +3d |
| Market Days Supply | 33 | 33 | 36 | +0d | −3d |
| Stock listed over 90 days on site | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | +0.4pp | +1.5pp |
| Average discount from first ask | −2.9% | −1.4% | −2.5% | −1.5pp | −0.4pp |
| Share of cars sold below first ask | 62.8% | 42.2% | 53.6% | +20.6pp | +9.2pp |
| Fully electric share of units sold | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | −0.9pp | −0.4pp |

*Market share is computed against the retail volume MarketCheck captures, not against the true U.S. market, and is not comparable to a company-reported or industry-association figure. Changes below 0.3 percentage points are not interpreted. Section 12 sets out the basis of every figure above.*

## Seven Signals at a Glance

| Signal lens | Reading | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Volume and revenue | Positive | 203,895 used vehicles, +37.2% year over year and +9.9% on the quarter, against a captured used market down 3.5%; unit share +1.2pp to 3.9% |
| Sell-through | Positive | Sold days on site 28, level with the June quarter and a year ago; 60.8% of site listings sold within 30 days against 52.1% for the market |
| Pricing power | Neutral | Average selling price $27,782, +5.3% year over year, +2.8% like-for-like; but 62.8% of cars sold below first ask against 53.6% a year ago |
| Inventory | Cautiously negative | Stock +30.7% year over year against sales +37.2%; +12.2% on the quarter against sales +9.9%; Market Days Supply 33, inside the typical range |
| Fully electric | Neutral | Units +29.1% year over year while captured used electric sales overall rose 11.5%; units down 4.5% on the quarter; fully electric share of Carvana's units 6.3% from 6.7% |
| Management verification | Mixed | The guided sequential increase in units shows in our data; the inventory catch-up and the return to a traditional mix are each half visible |
| Listing price position | Descriptive only | Opening prices at the market's level relative to our value estimate, unchanged from a year ago |

---

# PART 2: FULL ANALYSIS

## 0. Data Scope Notice

> **What this report covers:** MarketCheck data on used vehicles Carvana listed and sold through its U.S. retail website. What we cannot see: wholesale vehicle sales and auction activity, including the ADESA business; income from originating and selling auto loans and from vehicle service contracts and other products; the gross revenue treatment of vehicles bought from a large marketplace partner; reconditioning, logistics and other vehicle costs; advertising and other selling and administrative expense; and new vehicles sold through the franchise dealerships Carvana has acquired, which are too few in our data to read. In the June quarter Carvana sold 105,052 wholesale vehicles alongside 197,325 retail units (Carvana Form 10-Q for that quarter). A strong or weak signal here reads on the retail car-selling side only and does not by itself predict total company profitability. Treat it as one tile in the investment mosaic.

Our location fields for Carvana record where a car physically sits, which is one of its inspection and reconditioning sites, not where the buyer lives. Regional demand is therefore outside the scope of this report by construction; what the locations do show is how Carvana's production network is spread.

## 1. North American Vehicle Transaction Signal

**CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH | Confidence: MEDIUM**

Volume and sell-through were weighted more heavily than pricing and inventory because volume moved strongly on both horizons and sell-through holds a wide lead over the market, while the pricing and inventory cautions are moves of a few points against a year ago, one of them partly reversed on the quarter.

Carvana sold 37.2% more used vehicles than a year ago in our data and 9.9% more than in the June quarter, in a captured used market that shrank 3.5%, and took 1.2 points of share. On the panel of fulfillment sites active in both years the growth was 33.1%. Cars sold in 28 days on site, level with the June quarter and a year ago, and 60.8% of site listings sold within 30 days against 52.1% for the market. The average selling price rose 5.3% on the year, half of it like-for-like.

Two measures keep the call at Cautiously Bullish. Inventory grew 30.7% on the year against sales up 37.2%, which matters at a company whose management names inventory as the constraint on growth; the sequential build, 12.2% against sales up 9.9%, is the first sign of the catch-up management described. And the share of cars sold below their first ask rose to 62.8% from 53.6% a year ago.

Confidence is Medium because how much of Carvana's sales reaches our data in this quarter cannot be measured until the company reports, and because the inventory and discounting readings are one quarter of movement. Section 12 states what this signal is built on and what it does not adjust for.

## 2. Signal Table

| Signal lens | Reading | Evidence (vehicle transaction data only) |
|---|---|---|
| Volume and revenue | Positive | 203,895 used vehicles, +37.2% year over year and +9.9% on the quarter; +33.1% on the panel of fulfillment sites in operation since before July 2025; vehicle transaction revenue $5.7B, +44.4%; unit share 3.9%, +1.2pp, revenue share 4.4%, +1.3pp, against a captured used market down 3.5% |
| Sell-through | Positive | Sold days on site 28 mean, 22 median, against 28 and 21 in the June quarter and 28 and 21 a year ago; 60.8% of site listings sold within 30 days against 59.5% a year ago and 52.1% for the market |
| Pricing power | Neutral | Average selling price $27,782, +5.3% year over year (+2.8% like-for-like, +2.5% mix) and +0.6% on the quarter; average discount from first ask −2.9% against −2.5% a year ago, with 62.8% of cars sold below first ask against 53.6%; depth when discounted steady at −4.7% against −4.8% |
| Inventory | Cautiously negative | Quarter-end stock 76,984, +30.7% year over year against sales +37.2%, a gap of −6.4 points from +1.3 points in the June quarter; +12.2% on the quarter against sales +9.9%; Market Days Supply 33, inside the 29–41 day typical range; over-90-day stock 5.4% against 3.8% a year ago |
| Fully electric | Neutral | 12,769 units, +29.1% year over year against the captured market's +11.5%, share of captured used electric sales 8.3% from 7.2%; but −4.5% on the quarter and 6.3% of Carvana's sales from 6.7% a year ago. Likely unverifiable on the call: Carvana does not discuss electric vehicles |
| Management verification | Mixed | Guided sequential increase in units: consistent. Inventory catch-up: mixed. Return toward a traditional age and price mix: mixed. Revenue in line with units: mixed. See Section 11A |
| Brand equity | Not applicable | Carvana sells every brand; a manufacturer-side lens |

The listing price position in Section 6d is descriptive and does not enter this table.

## 3. Sold Volume Summary and Market Share

**On the panel of fulfillment sites that were in operation before July 2025 and still selling this quarter, used units rose 33.1% year over year; across all sites, which is the base for revenue, they rose 37.2%.** The site-panel figure is the demand signal; the all-site figure is what was transacted.

| Period | Used units | Vehicle transaction revenue | Average price | Sold days on site (mean / median) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 (Jul–Sep 2026) | 203,895 | $5.7B | $27,782 | 28 / 22 |
| Q2 2026 (Apr–Jun 2026) | 185,600 | $5.1B | $27,618 | 28 / 21 |
| Q3 2025 (Jul–Sep 2025) | 148,637 | $3.9B | $26,383 | 28 / 21 |

*Vehicle transaction revenue is the sum of final listed prices on vehicles sold. It is not Carvana's reported revenue: it excludes wholesale, financing and product income, and the gross revenue treatment of vehicles bought from a large marketplace partner. Prices were present on all but 11 of the 203,895 sales this quarter.*

**Fulfillment-site panel.** Carvana sells every used car through one website and has no stores, so the store-level same-store rule we apply to dealer groups is applied here to its fulfillment sites, which its location fields identify. A site counts as comparable when Carvana had been selling from it since before July 1, 2025 and it was still selling in the quarter just ended: 129 sites, carrying 96.0% of the used cars sold this quarter.

| Measure | Comparable sites (same-store) | All sites (revenue base) |
|---|---|---|
| Used units, Q3 2026 | 195,748 | 203,895 |
| Used units, Q3 2025 | 147,085 | 148,637 |
| Change vs. last year | +33.1% | +37.2% |

Twenty sites whose first Carvana sales in our data came after July 1, 2025, among them Hudson in Massachusetts, Sacramento, Dallas, Pewaukee in Wisconsin and Birmingham in Alabama, added 1,017 used units this quarter with no year-ago equivalent, and five sites that sold a year ago but not this quarter, led by one in Kansas City, held 1,052 units then. Five sites that were operating before July 2025 ramped so sharply that the panel sets them aside from both quarters: they carried 6,915 used units this quarter against 487 a year ago, the largest a Texas site. None of these corresponds to a disclosed store acquisition; they look like new or expanded production sites, consistent with the capacity additions management described on the June-quarter call *(our interpretation)*. Counting the five ramped sites back in, the comparable-site figure would be +37.3%, almost the all-site figure, which says Carvana's growth this year came from capacity at sites it already had rather than from new locations. The panel figure is a fulfillment-site same-store approximation built on each site's first appearance in our data, not a certified same-store comparison, and a site opening part-way through the year-ago quarter can add partial-period noise.

**Within the quarter** the pace held up: July 62,944 units (+31.5% year over year), August 71,640 (+39.8%), September 69,311 (+39.9%).

**Market share**

| Period | Used unit share | Used revenue share |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5% | 4.0% |
| Q3 2025 | 2.7% | 3.1% |
| Change vs. last quarter | +0.4pp | +0.4pp |
| Change vs. last year | +1.2pp | +1.3pp |

*Market share is computed against MarketCheck Compass-captured North American retail transactions for the same period, not against total US registrations or company-reported deliveries. Coverage of new-vehicle retail runs approximately 80–95% of the actual market and varies by brand, so these figures are a consistent relative measure across periods, not an absolute share of the true market.*

Carvana's share of captured used sales has risen every quarter shown, to 3.9% of units and 4.4% of revenue. The captured used market fell 3.5% over the year and 1.8% over the quarter, so the share gain did not come from a market-wide rise in what we capture; a change in how much of Carvana itself reaches our data would move this figure, and Section 12 sets out what is known about that. Revenue share runs about half a point above unit share because Carvana's average price sits above the market's.

**New vehicles.** Carvana also sells new Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram vehicles through franchise dealerships it has acquired. Our data shows 4,889 new units this quarter, mostly Jeep and Ram, against 2,820 in the June quarter and 381 a year ago: 0.1% of captured new sales and 2.3% of Carvana's captured units. The new-car count is still being verified, so this quarter the new-car book is shown as a count only and does not enter the signal. A full new-vehicle section begins with the December-quarter report.

## 4. Top Selling Makes

| Make | Units | Growth on last year | Share of Carvana units | Average price (vs. last year) | Sold DOS | Carvana share of the make's captured used sales (year ago) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ford | 18,711 | +36.5% | 9.2% | $28,916 (+10.2%) | 29 | 2.9% (2.0%) |
| Chevrolet | 18,610 | +21.8% | 9.1% | $29,191 (+7.4%) | 28 | 3.2% (2.4%) |
| Jeep | 16,315 | +37.2% | 8.0% | $25,814 (+0.7%) | 27 | 5.2% (3.9%) |
| Toyota | 16,223 | +35.5% | 8.0% | $30,891 (+10.1%) | 27 | 3.1% (2.2%) |
| Nissan | 13,914 | +55.1% | 6.8% | $22,446 (+3.5%) | 27 | 3.9% (2.7%) |
| Honda | 12,560 | +32.6% | 6.2% | $25,651 (+6.3%) | 25 | 3.4% (2.4%) |
| Hyundai | 11,596 | +37.5% | 5.7% | $23,070 (+5.8%) | 26 | 4.6% (3.4%) |
| Kia | 11,420 | +72.7% | 5.6% | $24,185 (+8.8%) | 27 | 5.1% (3.2%) |
| Tesla | 6,997 | +24.4% | 3.4% | $32,364 (+9.0%) | 23 | 11.9% (8.8%) |
| Volkswagen | 6,906 | +35.1% | 3.4% | $23,059 (+5.4%) | 26 | 4.9% (3.8%) |

**Growth is broad.** Every one of the ten largest makes grew by more than a fifth, and Carvana's share of each make's captured used sales rose by between 0.8 and 3.1 points. No single make carries the quarter: the largest, Ford, is 9.2% of units.

**Prices rose most on the trucks and Toyotas.** Ford (+10.2%), Toyota (+10.1%) and Tesla (+9.0%) carried the largest average-price increases among the top ten; Jeep was the exception at +0.7%. These are make-level averages and move with the age and trim mix within each make.

**Kia is the outlier on speed.** Its volume rose 72.7%, the fastest of the ten, and at 32 days it is also the slowest seller. Tesla, at 23 days, is the fastest, and Carvana now sells 11.9% of the captured used Teslas.

Price-to-sticker comparisons are a new-vehicle measure and are not used for this ticker.

## 5. Active Inventory Composition

At 30 September Carvana listed 76,984 used vehicles at an average list price of $27,672, against 68,592 at $28,470 on 30 June and 58,883 at $25,210 a year earlier. Composition is a proportion of the stock we track.

| Price band | 30 Sep 2026 | 30 Jun 2026 | 30 Sep 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $20,000 | 23.7% | 24.6% | 34.2% |
| $20,000–$30,000 | 44.8% | 39.8% | 42.5% |
| $30,000–$40,000 | 21.3% | 22.6% | 16.6% |
| $40,000–$50,000 | 6.6% | 8.1% | 4.7% |
| Over $50,000 | 3.5% | 4.8% | 2.0% |

| Vehicle age | 30 Sep 2026 | 30 Jun 2026 | 30 Sep 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3 years | 28.2% | 26.9% | 24.3% |
| 3–4 years | 20.7% | 22.2% | 18.3% |
| 5–6 years | 16.6% | 16.7% | 21.5% |
| 7–9 years | 22.7% | 23.0% | 25.1% |
| 10 years and older | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.8% |

| Mileage | 30 Sep 2026 | 30 Jun 2026 | 30 Sep 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30,000 | 23.7% | 26.9% | 22.1% |
| 30,000–60,000 | 33.6% | 33.2% | 34.8% |
| 60,000–100,000 | 36.5% | 34.7% | 36.0% |
| Over 100,000 | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.1% |

Average odometer reading on the lot: 54,383 miles at 30 September, against 52,077 at 30 June and 55,462 a year earlier.

**Over the year the lot moved upmarket; over the quarter it eased back.** Stock over $40,000 went from 6.7% a year ago to 13.0% in June and back to 10.1% now, and the average list price fell 2.8% on the quarter after rising 12.9% between September 2025 and June. The share of stock five or more years old, 51.1%, is level with June (50.9%) and well below a year ago (57.4%).

**The sold mix went the other way on age this quarter.** Cars under three years old were 29.5% of sales, against 26.0% in the June quarter and 23.8% a year ago, and sales of cars five or more years old fell to 47.0% from 52.6%. So the lot became slightly cheaper and higher-mileage on the quarter while the cars that sold became newer.

| Body type (stock) | 30 Sep 2026 | 30 Jun 2026 | 30 Sep 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SUV | 55.7% | 54.9% | 50.5% |
| Sedan | 15.8% | 18.1% | 22.5% |
| Pickup | 15.5% | 14.7% | 12.1% |
| Hatchback | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% |

Fully electric vehicles are 5.6% of listed stock against 4.5% in June and 4.7% a year ago, and hybrids 3.8% against 3.4% and 3.1%.

**Against the cars it sells, the lot is priced in line.** The average list price of unsold stock, $27,672, sits 0.4% below the quarter's average selling price, against 3.1% above in June and 4.4% below a year ago. This asking premium on unsold stock compares two different groups of cars and is not a discount; it is well below the 10% level at which we would look further.

## 6. Discount from First Listed Price

This is the gap between what Carvana first asked for a car and what that same car sold for, measured on each vehicle and then summarized across the quarter. It compares a car only with itself, so no mix adjustment is needed.

| Period | Cars matched | Sold below first ask | Sold at first ask | Sold above | Depth when discounted | **Average discount per car** | Discount on total asking value | Median |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 203,884 | 62.8% | 35.9% | 1.3% | −4.7% | **−2.9%** | −2.9% | −2.0% |
| Q2 2026 | 185,597 | 42.2% | 50.3% | 7.5% | −3.8% | **−1.4%** | −1.4% | 0.0% |
| Q3 2025 | 148,635 | 53.6% | 45.5% | 0.9% | −4.8% | **−2.5%** | −2.7% | −1.3% |

**What each column answers.** *Breadth* (sold below, at, or above first ask) is how many cars moved off the opening price at all. *Depth* is the average cut among only the cars that were cut. The *average discount per car* is the headline: every car sold counts once. The *discount on total asking value* weights each car by its price, so it answers what share of the money asked for was not collected.

**Against a year ago, the change is breadth, not depth.** 62.8% of cars sold below their first ask against 53.6%, while the cut on a discounted car was −4.7% against −4.8%. More cars came off their opening price; the ones that did were not cut harder. The average car gave up 2.9% against 2.5%, a widening of 0.4 points. Across the whole captured used market the average discount moved the other way, to −2.5% from −3.4%.

**Against the June quarter the move is large, and June is the unusual quarter.** In April and May the average car gave up only 1.2% and 0.9%, and more than half sold at exactly the first ask. On the 29 July call management said dealers had raised advertised prices from April as they began including fees after Federal Trade Commission guidance, that Carvana's own prices, which carry no such fees, followed the market up, and that this produced some of the quarter's retail strength. Discounting returned toward the year-ago pattern from June onward.

| Within the quarter | Cars matched | Sold below first ask | Depth when discounted | Average discount per car | Same month a year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | 62,940 | 64.8% | −4.4% | −2.8% | −2.2% |
| August 2026 | 71,638 | 64.7% | −4.9% | −3.1% | −2.4% |
| September 2026 | 69,306 | 58.9% | −4.7% | −2.8% | −3.1% |

**September ran narrower than a year ago.** July and August were wider than the same months of 2025; September, at −2.8% against −3.1%, was narrower, and breadth fell to 58.9% from 64.7% in August. The quarter's widening is concentrated in its first two months.

**The two weightings agree.** The discount on total asking value, −2.9%, sits on top of the average per car, −2.9%, so the cuts are spread evenly across price points rather than landing on the expensive stock.

At a retailer that prices by algorithm and does not negotiate, a wider average discount is consistent either with weaker demand at the opening price or with sharper opening prices that are then trimmed; this measure alone cannot tell the two apart. Section 6d bears on the second: Carvana's opening prices did not move relative to the market.

### 6d. Listing Price Position (used vehicles)

This compares the price Carvana first asks for each used car with MarketCheck Price, our model estimate of that car's market value, both taken from the listing's first recorded status change. A ratio of 1.00 means the car was listed at our estimate of its value. The comparator for a used-only retailer is the whole market.

| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median ratio | 1.0 | 1.0 | +0.001 |
| Position vs. the market (listing-day listings) | −0.003 | 0.000 | +0.003 |
| Position, all listings | −0.002 | 0.000 | +0.002 |
| Listed below 0.95 | 7.6% | 6.6% | −1.0 (pts) |
| Listed 0.95–1.05 | 65.0% | 66.9% | +1.9 (pts) |
| Listed above 1.05 | 27.4% | 26.5% | −0.9 (pts) |
| Market: listed below 0.95 | 17.4% | 16.4% | −1.0 (pts) |
| Sold within 30 days on site | 59.5% | 60.8% | +1.3 (pts) |
| Market: sold within 30 days on site | 57.9% | 52.1% | −5.8 (pts) |

*Sold within 30 days on site counts used listings started at their selling site through 3 September in each quarter, on the days-on-site clock: a listing counts as sold when it sold with 30 or fewer days on site, and as not sold when it reached a 31st day on site (Section 12). Comparator: all used listings in the market. The year-ago quarter's ratio base starts 5 July 2025, four days into the quarter.*

Carvana lists at the market's level relative to our value estimate and holds that position: the gap was −0.003 a year ago and is 0.000 now, and the all-listings reading agrees. It lists far fewer cars well below value than the market does (6.6% against 16.4%) and more of them in the band around value. Carvana's site listings sold within 30 days 60.8% of the time, against 52.1% for the market. Against the June quarter the position moved from −0.004 to 0.000; that comparison spans the spring change in how franchise dealers advertise fees, and Carvana adds no fees.

### 6e. Selling Margin Pressure (used vehicles)

Selling Margin Pressure measures markdowns beyond the usual on cars that took longer than usual to sell. For each price band and vehicle age, Carvana's own previous 12 months set the usual time to sell and the usual markdown on cars that sold on time. A car counts when it took longer than usual and was marked down by more than usual; the excess, in dollars, is averaged over all used cars sold.

| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Selling Margin Pressure, per used car sold | $640 | $690 | +$50 |
| Sold later than usual | 50.3% | 48.4% | −1.9 pp |
| Sold later than usual and marked down beyond the usual allowance | 39.2% | 41.1% | +1.8 pp |
| All used-car sellers: Selling Margin Pressure, per used car sold | $895 | $868 | −$27 |

*Used retail sales with a first asking price on record and a sale price between half and one and a half times it. The usual time to sell and the usual markdown come from each seller's own previous 12 months, by price band and vehicle age. Comparator: all used-car sellers. The year-over-year comparison crosses the March–May 2026 fee-inclusion shift.*

Carvana's Selling Margin Pressure was $690 per used car sold, up $50 from a year ago, against a fall of $27 for all used-car sellers. Against the second quarter it rose from $368, as the market's did ($675 to $868). This describes selling behavior only. What Carvana paid for its cars and spent reconditioning them are not in our data, so the measure is not a gross profit figure and does not feed the signal.

## 7. Days on Site, Days on Market and Market Days Supply

Days on site and days on market describe how long an individual car sits, on two clocks. Market Days Supply describes how long the whole lot would take to clear at the recent selling rate. They are different measurements.

### 7a. Days on Site and Days on Market: how long individual cars sit

Two clocks run on every car in our data. **Days on site** counts only the days at the current selling site and restarts whenever the car moves; it is the clock the seller manages its own pricing against, and it is the aging measure this report leads with in every section. **Days on market** counts from the first day the car was advertised anywhere and keeps counting if the car moves to another seller or another website; it is the listing's full exposure to the market, and it is analyzed here and only here. For most sellers the two differ; for Carvana, which sells every used car through one website, they should nearly coincide, and they do.

| Measure | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2025 | vs. Q2 | vs. year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sold days on site, mean | 28 | 28 | 28 | −1 day | 0 days |
| Sold days on site, median | 22 | 21 | 21 | +1 day | +1 day |
| Sold days on market, mean | 29 | 31 | 28 | −2 days | +1 day |
| Sold days on market, median | 22 | 21 | 22 | +1 day | 0 days |
| Active days on site, mean | 31 | 30 | 28 | +1 day | +3 days |
| Active days on site, median | 20 | 19 | 20 | +1 day | 0 days |
| Active days on market, mean | 32 | 32 | 29 | 0 days | +3 days |
| Active days on market, median | 21 | 19 | 20 | +2 days | +1 day |

**Sold days on site** runs from the first day Carvana advertised a car to the day it sold: 28 days on average this quarter, 22 for the typical car, about a day faster than June and level with a year ago. **Active days on site** describes the cars still listed on 30 September: 31 days on average, 20 for the typical one, a day older than in June and 3 days older than a year ago. **Sold days on market**, which adds any time the car was advertised by another seller before Carvana acquired it, is 29 days, 2 days faster than June; the market-clock improvement that the site clock does not show sits in that pre-acquisition time, which was larger in June (2 days on the average car sold) than this quarter (1 day) *(our interpretation)*. **Active days on market** is 32 days, 21 for the typical car, level with June and 3 days above a year ago.

**Days on site** tracks days on market within a day on every row. 96.9% of the used cars Carvana sold this quarter carried the same age on site as on the market; the 3.1% that did not are most likely cars advertised by another seller before Carvana acquired them, or relisted after a pause *(our interpretation)*. That near-identity is what a single-website retailer should show, and it is the control case for the gap we see at franchise groups that advertise the same car on several of their own websites. Nothing in Carvana's used-car aging reflects a change of listing channel, so the two measures can be read interchangeably here; days on site leads throughout this report, and days on market is shown and analyzed in this section only. The one exception is the new-car business: 33.0% of the 4,889 new vehicles sold this quarter were younger on site than on the market, which we read as the same car being advertised on carvana.com and on the franchise dealership's own website, with the site clock restarting when the record switches *(our interpretation)*; those cars remain a count-only note in this report.

| Active stock by days on site, 30 Sep 2026 | Share |
|---|---|
| 0–30 days | 64% |
| 31–60 days | 24% |
| 61–90 days | 7% |
| Over 90 days | 5% |

The share of stock listed more than 90 days on site, 5.0% (3,923 of the 78,219 used cars in stock), is above June's 4.6% and the 3.5% of a year ago. Active days on site now sit 3 days above sold days on site (31 against 28), against a near match a year ago: the cars on the lot are slightly older than the cars that sold, which is the pattern of a lot that has been building. On the market clock the over-90-day share is 5.4%, below June's 5.9% and above 3.8% a year ago; the June comparison differs between the clocks because the market clock also counts time at other sellers before Carvana acquired a car, and that time was larger in June *(our interpretation)*.

### 7b. Market Days Supply: how long the lot would take to clear

| Period | Active units | Sold units, 45 days to quarter-end | Market Days Supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 76,984 | 104,676 | **33** |
| Q2 2026 | 68,592 | 93,430 | 33 |
| Q3 2025 | 58,883 | 73,936 | 36 |

Market Days Supply is quarter-end inventory divided by the average daily selling rate over the 45 calendar days ending on the last day of the quarter (17 August to 30 September 2026, 17 May to 30 June 2026 and 17 August to 30 September 2025). At 33 days Carvana sits inside the 29–41 day typical range for used-only retailers, and inside the 26–39 days it has run over the last 15 quarters. It is level with the June quarter and 3 days below a year ago.

**For Carvana the more telling measure is inventory growth against sales growth.** Management has said its inventory is the input that drives conversion and that inventory grew more slowly than sales in the first half. In our data:

|  | Inventory growth | Sales growth | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025 | +31% | +37% | −6 points |
| Q2 2026 vs. Q2 2025 | +43% | +42% | +1 points |
| Q3 2026 vs. Q2 2026 | +12% | +10% | +2 points |

The lot outgrew sales on the quarter, the catch-up management described. But a year ago the summer build was larger, inventory rising 23% from June to September against sales up 14%, so on the annual comparison the gap has opened to 6 points. Carvana's own count of cars on its website, 77,971 at 30 June, rose 38% year over year; our panel held 88% of that figure, against 85% a year earlier.

**Against all sellers.** Make for make, Carvana's Market Days Supply runs at 54% to 70% of the all-seller benchmark. 100% means Carvana is in line with all sellers of the same makes; below 100% means it carries less supply than they do. Jeep 54%, Chevrolet 57%, Ford 58%, Hyundai 60%, Kia 61%, Nissan 64%, Honda 67%, Toyota 70%. Both sides come from the same panel at 30 September 2026 on the same 45-day window. Carvana turns every major make faster than all sellers do.

**Coherence check.** Sold days on site divided by Market Days Supply is 83%, against the range of 76% to 114% in which the two normally sit, derived on sold days on site over complete quarters since 2023; it sits inside the range. On the days-on-market clock the ratio is 87% against a range of 82% to 124%, so on either clock the inventory and sales figures agree with each other. The older-stock reading in Section 7a, the over-90-day share above a year ago and active days on site above sold, rests on the age of the cars on the lot, not on this ratio.

## 8. Electrified Vehicle Sell-Through

Fully electric and hybrid vehicles are reported separately. **Fully electric** runs on a battery alone; **hybrid** recovers energy on board but cannot be plugged in; **plug-in hybrid** can be charged and driven on electricity for a limited range; **mild hybrid** carries an electric assist that cannot move the car on its own.

### 8a. Fully electric

| Period | Units | Share of Carvana used sales | Average price | Sold DOS (mean / median) | Carvana share of captured used electric sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12,769 | 6.3% | $32,799 | 24 / 18 | 8.3% |
| Q2 2026 | 13,372 | 7.2% | $31,375 | 24 / 17 | 8.7% |
| Q3 2025 | 9,893 | 6.7% | $30,272 | 25 / 18 | 7.2% |

**Carvana grew electric sales faster than the market over the year, but not this quarter.** Units rose 29.1% year over year against 11.5% for captured used electric sales overall, lifting Carvana's share of that market by 1.1 points to 8.3% (our interpretation: outperformance in the category over the year). On the quarter units fell 4.5% while the market was flat, and share slipped 0.4 points. Electric cars still sell 5 days faster than Carvana's average. Tesla is 6,997 of the 12,769 units and sells in 23 days. Carvana does not discuss electric vehicles on its calls, so this lens is unlikely to be verifiable against the print.

### 8b. Hybrid and other drivetrains

| Drivetrain | Units Q3 2026 | Share | Sold DOS | Units Q3 2025 | Share | Sold DOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid | 8,605 | 4.2% | 24 | 5,309 | 3.6% | 26 |
| Mild hybrid | 7,709 | 3.8% | 29 | 3,603 | 2.4% | 29 |
| Plug-in hybrid | 2,574 | 1.3% | 28 | 2,514 | 1.7% | 27 |
| Gasoline and diesel | 172,184 | 84.4% | 28 | 127,221 | 85.6% | 28 |

Hybrid sales rose 62.1% on the year and sell 4 days faster than the average. Plug-in hybrids were flat in units and lost share.

## 9. Bull Case

**Growth and share in a shrinking market.** Carvana sold 37.2% more used vehicles than a year ago in our data and 33.1% more on the panel of sites active in both years, while the captured used market fell 3.5%; its share of captured used sales rose 1.2 points to 3.9% (Section 3). Growth was broad: each of the ten largest makes grew more than a fifth (Section 4). September was the strongest month for year-over-year growth at +39.9%.

**Sell-through held as the lot grew.** Cars sold in 28 days on site, level with the June quarter, while inventory grew 12.2%, and 60.8% of site listings sold within 30 days against 52.1% for the market (Sections 6d and 7a). Make for make, Carvana's Market Days Supply runs at 54% to 70% of the all-seller benchmark (Section 7b).

**The inventory catch-up has started.** Stock grew faster than sales on the quarter, +12.2% against +9.9%, the first sequential gain in our data since management named inventory as the constraint (Section 7b). If that continues it removes the brake management described on the July call (our interpretation).

**Prices are firm for comparable cars.** Holding the year-ago mix of age and body style fixed, average selling prices rose 2.8% year over year, and Carvana's opening prices sit exactly at the market's level relative to our value estimate, unchanged from a year ago (Sections 6 and 6d). A rising average selling price is not a margin measure, and per-car profit is not visible in our data.

## 10. Bear Case

**The lot is still smaller, relative to sales, than a year ago.** Inventory grew 30.7% year over year against sales up 37.2%, and the gap has opened from about level in the June quarter to 6.4 points (Section 7b). Management told investors on 29 July that thin inventory lowers conversion and that it was raising advertising spending to compensate (management's own disclosure). On our data the annual gap that management described as a headwind is wider, not narrower, at quarter-end.

**More cars came off their opening price.** 62.8% of cars sold below their first ask against 53.6% a year ago, and the average car gave up 2.9% against 2.5%, while the captured market's average discount narrowed (Section 6). The widening sits in July and August; September was narrower than a year ago. A wider discount from first ask is a pricing observation; it says nothing by itself about gross profit per unit, which depends on acquisition and reconditioning costs we cannot see.

**Older stock is a larger share of the lot than a year ago.** Stock listed more than 90 days on site is 5.0% of the lot against 3.5% a year ago, and active days on site now run 3 days above sold days on site (Section 7a). The share also rose from June's 4.6%, the second quarterly rise in a row, so this is a level to watch that has moved the wrong way for two quarters.

**The quarter's sold mix moved further from the traditional mix management described.** Sales of cars under three years old rose to 29.5% from 26.0% in the June quarter, against management's stated move back toward its traditional age and price mix (Section 5 and Section 11A). The stock itself moved the expected way on price and mileage, so this may be timing (our interpretation).

## 11. Management Verification and Watch Items

### 11A. Claims from the Q2 2026 call (29 July 2026)

| # | Management claim | Claim type | Verdict | What our data shows |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | "A sequential increase in retail units sold in Q3 compared to Q2." | Guidance | **DIRECTIONALLY CONSISTENT** | Used units in our data rose 9.9% from the June quarter (185,600 to 203,895). Our counts capture most but not all of Carvana's sales, so this confirms the direction, not the company's number. |
| 2 | Inventory "has undergrown sales over the last several months"; "We expect to get inventory back in line relatively quickly." | Fact / Guidance | **MIXED** | On the quarter stock grew 12.2% against sales up 9.9%, consistent with the catch-up. Year over year stock grew 30.7% against sales up 37.2%, a gap that widened from +1.3 points in the June quarter to −6.4 points. |
| 3 | "Step three, we plan now to shift to cars that are closer to our traditional mix, in terms of age of cars and mileage"; step three is to "move back to a more traditional ASP," and "we are heading into step 3 today." | Guidance | **MIXED** | The stock moved that way on price and mileage: listings over $40,000 fell to 10.1% from 13.0% and average list price fell 2.8%. The cars that sold did not: sales under three years old rose to 29.5% from 26.0%, and the average age of cars sold fell to 4.8 years from 5.2. (Guidance claim, Q3 2026 horizon: the stock points the predicted way, the sales mix does not yet; unresolved as of this report.) |
| 4 | "We expect revenue growth to be more in line with retail unit growth in Q3." | Guidance | **MIXED** | The gross revenue treatment behind the claim is not visible to us. In our data, vehicle transaction revenue rose 44.4% against units up 37.2%, because the average selling price rose 5.3%; about half of that rise is mix. Price and mix alone would keep revenue growth ahead of unit growth. |
| 5 | "We expect an increase in advertising expense dollars in Q3." | Guidance | **NOT OBSERVABLE** | Advertising expense is not captured in vehicle transaction data. Treat Carvana's Q3 disclosure as the primary source. |
| 6 | Days of supply, used | Fact | **NOT DISCLOSED** | Carvana stated no days-of-supply figure on the call or in the Form 10-Q for the June quarter. Our Market Days Supply at 30 June 2026 was 33 days. Logged as not disclosed. |

### 11B. Five questions the data raises for the 28 October call

1. Our data shows the lot growing faster than sales on the quarter, 12.2% against 9.9%, but more slowly over the year, 30.7% against 37.2%. Has inventory caught up with sales, and if it has, should conversion and advertising efficiency improve from here; if it has not, how much longer does the headwind last?
2. The share of cars selling below their first asking price rose to 62.8% from 53.6% a year ago, concentrated in July and August, with September narrower than a year ago. Was that a deliberate pricing response after the spring fee-inclusion shift unwound, or a sign of softer demand at the opening price?
3. The cars Carvana listed became cheaper and higher-mileage on the quarter while the cars it sold became newer. Is the move back to the traditional age and price mix on schedule, and when should it show in what sells?
4. With the gross revenue treatment no longer in the comparison, how much of revenue growth above unit growth is price and mix? Our data puts the average selling price up 5.3%, about half of it mix.
5. Our data shows 4,889 new Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram vehicles sold through Carvana's franchise dealerships this quarter, up from 2,820. Are new vehicles counted in reported retail units, and how will the new-car business be disclosed as it grows?

### 11C. Post-Print Accuracy Summary (Carvana Q3 2026 Results, October 28, 2026)

**What this section is:** This section was added after Carvana reported third-quarter 2026 results on October 28, 2026. Everything above it is the report as written, unchanged.

**Scorecard:** Of 25 vehicle-transaction calls that could be tested against what Carvana reported, 20 were confirmed, 4 were partly right and 1 was missed. Another 10 could not be tested because Carvana gave no figure for them, among them days on site, days’ supply, aged stock and electric-vehicle sales. The Cautiously Bullish verdict was right: Carvana sold a record 217,385 retail vehicles, up 39.4% from a year ago and 10.2% from the June quarter, on record revenue of $8.04 billion, up 42.4%, while the industry was flat to down. Retail gross profit per unit (GPU) rose $100 to $3,556. Total profit per car fell, on lower financing income and wholesale profit per unit, which sit outside vehicle transactions in our data and which the report did not attempt to read.

| Metric | Our Call (October 20) | Carvana Reported (October 28) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Composite signal | Cautiously Bullish / Medium; held back by inventory trailing sales and wider discounting | Record units +39.4% and revenue +42.4%; inventory still trailing sales; retail GPU +$100 | **HIT** |
| Retail units, year over year | +37.2% in our data, against a used market down 3.5% in our data | +39.4%, in a flat-to-down industry | **HIT** |
| Retail units, on the quarter | +9.9% in our data | +10.2% | **HIT** |
| Vehicle revenue | $5.7 billion in our data, +44.4% | Retail vehicle sales $6.1 billion, +53.8%; total revenue +42.4% | **HIT** |
| Average selling price | $27,782, +5.3%, about half from a newer, costlier mix | Retail revenue per unit $28,263, +10.3%, on retail-market appreciation and a later-model mix | **HIT** |
| Inventory against sales | Stock +30.7% against sales +37.2%; lot outgrew sales on the quarter | Website units +29.9% against units +39.4%; production slightly ahead of sales in the quarter | **HIT** |
| Share | 3.9% of used sales in our data, up 1.2 points, in a shrinking market | Share gains in a flat industry; “just over 2%” of the total used market | **HIT** |
| Pricing power | Neutral: firm like-for-like prices offset by more cars sold below their first ask | Retail GPU +$100 on a wider spread between retail and wholesale prices | **PARTIAL** |
| Selling-side price position | Opening prices at the market’s level; a neutral read for retail GPU | Retail GPU +2.9%, from the cost of buying cars, which our data does not see | **PARTIAL** |
| More cars below their first ask (negative case) | 62.8% sold below first ask, against 53.6% | Retail GPU and revenue per unit both rose; no sign of softer demand | **MISS** |

**What we got right:** The verdict rested on Carvana growing far faster than a shrinking market, and it did, for the eighth quarter near 40%. Our 37.2% ran 2.2 points below Carvana’s 39.4% because a slightly smaller share of Carvana’s sales reached our data than a year earlier, about 93.8% against 95.3%; the report said a gap of this kind would recur without assuming its size or direction, and this quarter it ran the other way from the June quarter’s. The inventory caution was confirmed almost word for word: Carvana’s own count of cars on its website rose 29.9% against sales up 39.4%, management said available inventory is still growing much more slowly than sales, and it said production slightly outran sales in the quarter, as our sequential figures showed. The report read the higher average price as partly a richer, later-model mix and drew no profit conclusion from it; management described the same deliberate mix shift. All four management claims we checked held, and the first question we flagged for the call, whether inventory had caught up, was the main topic of the call.

**What we missed and why:** One of the two cautions that kept the call short of Bullish did not hold. More cars sold below their first asking price than a year ago, and the report gave that bearish weight, while saying itself that the measure cannot separate weaker demand from sharper opening prices. At a retailer that prices by algorithm and does not negotiate, it turned out to describe how the lot is worked, not demand: retail GPU rose $100 on a wider spread between retail and wholesale prices, and revenue per unit rose 10.3%. The selling-side price position likewise read neutral for retail GPU, but the gain came from what Carvana paid for its cars at wholesale, which our data cannot see. Two presentation points: the summary said a change in how much of Carvana’s sales reach our data would not alter how its growth and share should be read, which is too strong, since a change in our capture of one company moves both; and the reminder that franchise dealers began including mandatory fees in advertised prices from spring 2026, following Federal Trade Commission (FTC) enforcement, sat in Section 6 but not beside the headline price comparisons, where part of any change against the market is how prices are advertised rather than what buyers pay.

**Bottom line:** Read this report for Carvana’s growth against the market, its average price and mix, and the gap between inventory and sales growth, which all held up. Treat its discount-breadth readings as a description of how Carvana prices its lot, not as a demand signal, and read our unit counts and share beside Carvana’s own figures: they run a few points below the company’s, and the gap moves from quarter to quarter.

---

## 12. Methodology Note

### Quality control status

| Check | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter closed and covered by the panel | Complete | Quarter ended 2026-09-30; panel data edge 2026-10-09; the panel holds Carvana used inventory of 76,984 at 30 September. Passed. |
| Baselines re-derived since the last data refresh | Complete | Inventory panel rebuilt 2017–2026 on 2026-10-12; baselines and bands installed the same day; Market Days Supply bands, observed range, coherence range and per-make all-seller benchmark re-derived on the 45-day basis and installed 2026-10-19; the per-make benchmark carries the 2026-09-30 quarter-end. |
| Prior-quarter accuracy recall | Complete | The Q2 2026 accuracy review was read before any data was pulled; how its lessons were applied is set out below. |
| Sold volume, revenue, price and days on site | Complete | 203,895 used units, $5,664,291,594 of revenue, average price $27,782; monthly sums reconcile to the quarter; revenue cross-foots to average price times priced units. |
| Volume range checks | Complete | 203,895 used units inside 118,900–222,800 and used and new revenue of $5.9B inside $3.1B–6.4B (Section 2 band, four quarters to June 30, 2026). Year-over-year growth of 37.2% exceeds the ±25% coherence guide and is in line with the company's reported +37.7% in the June quarter. |
| Market share band | Complete | Used unit share 3.9% against a 1.2–4.2% band; revenue share 4.4% against 1.3–4.6%. In band; the 0.4-point quarterly rise matches the recent trend. New: 4,889 units and a 0.1% share, inside the ramp ranges (2,300–5,600 units; 0.0–0.1% share) that apply to Carvana's new-car book from this quarter. |
| Inventory stop check | Complete | 76,984 against a 48,200–93,800 band, valid through 2027-03-31. In band. |
| Inventory and Market Days Supply plausibility | Complete | Market Days Supply 33 against an observed range of 26–39 and the 29–41 day typical range. Active units 76,984 sit at the top of the observed range (28,989–76,984), as expected for a growing company. |
| Days on site and Market Days Supply coherence | Complete | Sold days on site ÷ Market Days Supply 83% against the days-on-site range of 76% to 114% (installed 2026-10-21), inside the range; on days on market 87% against 82% to 124% |
| Same-store divergence test | Complete | Panel +33.1% against all sites +37.2%, a 4.1-point gap with 20 new sites, 5 departed sites and 5 ramped sites set aside; the gap is consistent with the sites added, so the panel has not leaked. |
| Same-store panel basis | Complete | Rebuilt 2026-10-20 on the first-seen convention now used for dealer groups: a site counts when it was selling before July 1, 2025 and still is. The comparable set is the same 129 sites as the earlier zip-intersection panel and the figure is unchanged at +33.1%. |
| Days-on-site basis (Terrence, 20 October 2026) | Applied | Days on site leads every aging figure outside Section 7a; the over-90-day share, sold within 30 days and the coherence numerator are computed on the days-on-site clock; days-on-market values are retained in the aggregates record. |
| Geographic concentration | Not applicable | Location fields mark fulfillment sites, not buyers' markets, so regional demand is out of scope for this ticker. The single-site concentration of the June quarter has dispersed (see below). |
| Per-make Market Days Supply against all sellers | Complete | Eight makes, 54%–70% of the all-seller benchmark; same panel, same date, same 45-day window. |
| Discount from first listed price: field soundness | Complete | All listing-start months from March 2025 to September 2026 pass the four refresh checks on the 2026-10-10 files. Market-wide mean first ask runs 2.7% to 4.0% above the mean sale price in every month of the three quarters, moving with it. |
| Management days-of-supply log | Complete | Carvana stated no days-of-supply figure for the June quarter; logged as not disclosed. |
| Coverage rate | Complete, rate for this quarter not computable | Recorded below with the reason. |
| Pre-publication compliance sweep | Complete | Discount-to-profit firewall, scope symmetry, same-store headline and coverage rate: all pass. No check waived. |
| Numeric lint | Complete | `tools/numeric_lint.py` run 2026-10-20 against this draft and its aggregates: 0 failures. |
| US spelling | Complete | `tools/spelling_lint.py` run 2026-10-20: 0 findings. |

### What this signal is built on, and what it does not adjust for

The signal is a directional read on what MarketCheck observes: the vehicles Carvana lists publicly, the prices they carry and how long they take to sell. **It does not adjust for the share of Carvana's sales that never reaches our data.** That share is real, it moves, and it cannot be measured for a quarter until Carvana reports. The direction is our reading of the transaction evidence, not a forecast of the unit number Carvana will print on 28 October.

Year-over-year volume, revenue and market share are the figures most exposed to that. Per-vehicle averages (average selling price, the aging measures on either clock, the discount from first ask, the listing price position) and proportions of our own population (the over-90-day share, the electric share, the age, price and mileage mix) are not, and they carry the signal on their own: sell-through level on the quarter and ahead of the market, prices firm like-for-like, discount breadth wider, the aged share higher than a year ago. The inventory-to-sales gap compares two counts that both depend on coverage; because both come from the same listings, a change in coverage tends to move both sides together, though not necessarily by the same amount. All but 11 sales this quarter carry both a sale price and a first asking price.

### Coverage record

The denominator is taken from Carvana's Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, which reports 197,325 retail units against 143,280 a year earlier, and from Carvana's third-quarter 2025 results release, which reports 155,941. Our counts are on the files used in this report.

| Quarter | Our used units | Carvana retail units | Coverage | Our year-over-year | Company year-over-year | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 121,927 | 133,898 | 91.1% |  |  |  |
| Q2 2025 | 130,975 | 143,280 | 91.4% |  |  |  |
| Q3 2025 | 148,637 | 155,941 | 95.3% |  |  |  |
| Q1 2026 | 170,687 | 187,393 | 91.1% | +40.0% | +40.0% | 0.0pp |
| Q2 2026 | 185,600 | 197,325 | 94.1% | +41.7% | +37.7% | **+4.0pp** |
| Q3 2026 | 203,895 | reports 28 October | not yet measurable | +37.2% |  |  |

Our count is an under-count: coverage has run between 91.1% and 95.3%. It moves in both directions. In the June quarter it rose 2.7 points on the year, so our growth figure ran 4.0 points above the company's; in the March quarter the two matched. The year-ago base for this quarter, at 95.3%, is the highest coverage measured, so the comparison does not start from a low base, but no step for the reporting quarter has been located because it cannot be until Carvana reports. **Assume a gap recurs; do not assume its size or its sign.** If Carvana's reported retail units include the new vehicles sold through its franchise dealerships, coverage on a used-plus-new basis was 95.5% in the June quarter. These rates are recomputed on the current files and differ slightly from rates logged on earlier versions of the data.

### Fulfillment sites and geography

Carvana's location fields record the physical site of the car, which is one of its inspection and reconditioning centers or ADESA sites. In the June quarter one Arkansas site carried 28.7% of Carvana's used sales in our data; this quarter it carried 493 units, 0.2%, and the five largest sites each hold 4.5–5.5%, the multi-site pattern of 2025. Totals are unaffected either way. Regional demand remains out of scope.

### Listing Price Position disclosures

Listing Price Position compares each used car's opening asking price with MarketCheck Price, MarketCheck's model estimate of the car's market value, at the listing's first recorded status change. It describes where the dealer set the price, not what the car sold for.

The all-listings price position agrees with the headline to within 0.002 in every period. MarketCheck Price coverage fell between 25 May and 10 June 2026, inside the June quarter. The quarter-on-quarter comparison spans the March–May 2026 change in how franchise dealers advertise mandatory fees; position against the market nets out the part of that change the market shared. The year-ago base starts 5 July 2025.

**Directional read for grading.** Carvana's listing position against the market is unchanged from a year ago (−0.003 to 0.000). That is a neutral read for used retail gross profit per unit: it points neither to higher nor to lower per-car profit. It will be graded against the reported figure after the quarter.

### Discount from first listed price disclosures

The first asking price is the first price MarketCheck observed on the listing. Carvana adds no dealer fees to its advertised prices, so the spring 2026 shift in franchise dealers' advertised prices does not enter Carvana's own per-car discount; it does enter the market-wide comparison figures, and it lowered the market's discount from first ask from spring 2026 onward. The part of any market figure that reflects how prices are advertised rather than what buyers pay is not estimated.

### What would change this reading

1. Carvana's reported inventory, or our panel at the next quarter-end, showing stock growing faster than sales on the year as well as on the quarter would remove the main caution and move the inventory lens to positive.
2. Discount breadth staying at July and August levels into the December quarter, with opening prices still at the market's level, would move pricing power from neutral to negative and take the call toward Neutral.
3. A reported unit growth figure well below ours would mean the volume we observe is partly our own measurement, and the volume lens should carry less weight next quarter.

### Data sources and definitions

Figures are computed from MC Compass data, MarketCheck's vehicle listing and sales records, filtered to `dealership_group_stock_ticker = CVNA` and used vehicles. Sold figures come from the sales records for each quarter. Units count each vehicle once per calendar month, summed over the quarter. Inventory figures are a single-day snapshot at the last day of each quarter from a daily inventory series in which a listing ends when the vehicle sells, counting each vehicle once. Market Days Supply divides that snapshot by the average daily selling rate over the 45 calendar days ending on the snapshot date, inclusive. Where management states a days-of-supply figure it is compared with ours directly, with one difference in basis: management typically uses the last 30 days or the calendar month and counts stock on the lot, while ours uses the 45 days to quarter-end and every advertised unit. New vehicles carry no Market Days Supply figure this quarter, because Carvana's new-car book is reported as a unit count only until the full new-vehicle section begins in the December quarter. Days on site, the aging measure this report leads with, runs from the day a vehicle is first advertised by its selling site; days on market runs from the day it is first advertised for sale anywhere, and is analyzed in Section 7a only.

Average Transaction Price (ATP) is the average of the last listed price on each sold vehicle: the final advertised price when the listing closed. It is not an out-the-door price: it excludes dealer fees, Finance & Insurance (F&I) products, trade-in equity, taxes and registration, and any incentive applied at the point of sale off the advertised price.

The like-for-like price change holds the year-ago quarter's mix of vehicle age band and body type fixed and applies this quarter's average price within each group; the remainder of the change is mix.

Market share is computed against MarketCheck Compass-captured North American retail transactions for the same period, not against total US registrations or company-reported deliveries. Coverage of new-vehicle retail runs approximately 80–95% of the actual market and varies by brand, so these figures are a consistent relative measure across periods, not an absolute share of the true market.

Basis: inventory from the Compass daily panel, in which each listing opens on its first day of advertisement; days on market on that clock (opportunity start); Market Days Supply on the 45 calendar days to quarter-end (ds_denominator = t45); baselines installed 2026-10-19. Days on site: the Compass site counter, re-anchored at each observed reset; on the days-on-market clock the over-90-day share is 5.4% at 30 September, 5.9% at 30 June and 3.8% a year ago. Sold within 30 days on site counts used listings started at their selling site between the first day of the quarter and 3 September; a listing is sold within 30 days when its sale record carries 30 or fewer days on site, and not sold when the car reached a 31st day on site in the panel; listings that disappeared unsold before day 31 are in neither count; the market comparator is built the same way over all used listings. This is not the listing-day cohort behind the price-position figures in Section 6d.

### Lessons from the prior quarter

The Q2 2026 accuracy review graded our June-quarter report 10 hits, 7 partial, 8 misses and 2 not gradable. Its lessons are applied here. The inventory lens is read as inventory growth against sales growth, not as Market Days Supply against a band, because Carvana names inventory as its binding constraint. No unit range is published and the year-over-year unit figure is labeled as captured, with the coverage record above. No link is drawn from days on market to per-car profit. The market-wide advertised-price change of spring 2026 is named before the price measures are read. The watch items are written so that each possible answer has a meaning.

### Outside MarketCheck scope for this ticker

Wholesale vehicle sales (105,052 in the June quarter) and wholesale gross profit; the ADESA auction business; income from selling auto loans and from vehicle service contracts and other products; the interest rate Carvana passes back to customers; the gross revenue treatment of vehicles from a large marketplace partner; reconditioning, inbound transport and other vehicle costs; advertising and selling and administrative expense; new vehicles sold through acquired franchise dealerships; any measure of gross profit or margin; capital structure and interest expense.

**Sources of figures.** Every figure in this report comes from MarketCheck data unless the text names another source, such as a company filing or management's comments on its earnings call. Only figures from those other sources carry a source label.

### Plain-English glossary

| Term | What it means |
|---|---|
| Active days on market | See Days on Market (DOM): the mean age of the cars listed for sale on the last day of the quarter |
| Active days on site | See Days on Site (DOS): the mean days on site of the cars listed for sale on the last day of the quarter |
| Active inventory | Cars listed for sale on a given date |
| Asking premium on unsold stock | The average list price of unsold cars at quarter-end against the average selling price of cars sold in the quarter. Two different groups of cars, so it describes how the lot is priced relative to what is selling; it is not a discount |
| Average discount per car | For each car sold, its selling price against the price it was first listed at, averaged so every car counts once |
| Average Transaction Price (ATP) | The average of the final listed price on each car sold; also called the average selling price here |
| Coverage | The proportion of a company's actual sales that appear in our listings data |
| Days on Market (DOM) | Within a single sales opportunity spell, it is the number of days a vehicle has been listed for sale anywhere, counted from its first appearance in Compass and carried across dealers, so it survives a transfer or a dealer trade. Reported as Active DOM (mean age of vehicles on the lot at quarter end) and Sold DOM (mean age at sale). It measures the vehicle’s full exposure to the market, which is what drives depreciation and floorplan cost. |
| Days on Site (DOS) | Within a single sales opportunity spell, it is the number of days a vehicle has been listed by its current selling store, restarting at zero when a vehicle moves to a new store or appears on a new selling channel. DOS reflects the clock the store itself manages against. It is the better measure of a dealer’s own pricing and markdown discipline. Where DOS runs well below DOM, the difference indicates inventory that reached the current seller or channel after time elsewhere. For groups that syndicate inventory through a central website, the gap may reflect the channel rather than physical transfers between stores. |
| Depth when discounted | The average cut among only the cars that sold below their first asking price |
| Discount on total asking value | Total selling prices against total first asking prices, so expensive cars count for more |
| Finance & Insurance (F&I) | Loans, service contracts and other products sold alongside a car |
| Fully electric | A car that runs on a battery alone, with no gasoline engine |
| Fulfillment site | One of Carvana's inspection, reconditioning or ADESA locations, where cars are prepared and held |
| Gross profit per unit (GPU) | Profit on each car after its cost, before overheads. Not visible in our data |
| Hybrid | A car with a gasoline engine and an electric motor that recovers energy on board; it cannot be plugged in |
| Like-for-like price change | The price change with the mix of vehicle age and body style held at last year's |
| Listing Price Position | Where a dealer sets a used car's first asking price relative to our estimate of its market value |
| Market Days Supply | How many days the stock on the last day of the quarter would last at the average daily selling rate of the 45 days ending that day. A property of the whole inventory, not of any one vehicle. Not the same as days on market. |
| Market share | A company's portion of the sales MarketCheck captures, which is narrower than the true market |
| MarketCheck Price | MarketCheck's model estimate of a vehicle's market value, retrained weekly on the past three months of the market |
| Median | The middle value: half the cars are above it and half below |
| Mild hybrid | A gasoline car with a small electric assist that cannot move the car on its own |
| Percentage point (pp) | The difference between two percentages: from 3.5% to 3.9% is 0.4 points, rounding included |
| Plug-in hybrid | A hybrid that can be charged from a socket and driven a limited distance on electricity |
| Same-store | Comparing only fulfillment sites that were in operation before July 2025 and still are, so growth is not flattered by new sites |
| Selling Margin Pressure | The average markdown, in dollars per used car sold, beyond a seller's usual allowance on cars that took longer than usual to sell, measured against the seller's own previous 12 months; it describes selling behavior, not profit |
| Sold days on market | See Days on Market (DOM): the mean age at sale of the cars sold in the quarter |
| Sold days on site | See Days on Site (DOS): the mean days on site at sale of the cars sold in the quarter |
| Sold within 30 days on site | Share of listings at a selling site that sold with 30 or fewer days on site, counted only for listings we could follow for a full 30 days |
| Year over year (YoY) | Compared with the same three months a year earlier |
| Quarter over quarter (QoQ) | Compared with the previous three months |
| Data label: our interpretation | A conclusion drawn from what we measured, not measured itself |
| Data label: management's own disclosure | Stated by the company on its call or in a filing |
| Data label: our educated guess | A plausible explanation that the data does not confirm |

*Prepared by MarketCheck Research using the Anthropic Claude LLM. This report describes North American retail vehicle transaction activity only and is not investment advice.*

We welcome your feedback. To offer comments, suggestions for future coverage, or to inquire about licensing this report or the MarketCheck data behind it, including vehicle-level sales, inventory and pricing data, contact Bryant Sheehy at [bryant.sheehy@marketcheck.com](mailto:bryant.sheehy@marketcheck.com).

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**Not investment advice.** This report is published by MarketCheck for informational purposes only. Nothing in this report constitutes investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. The report expresses analytical observations about vehicle-market data as of the dates indicated; it is not a recommendation to take any action with respect to any company or security mentioned.

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**Data and estimates.** This report is based on MarketCheck's Compass transaction database and related sources that MarketCheck believes to be reliable but does not guarantee to be complete or accurate. MarketCheck data typically captures a substantial portion (not the entirety) of covered companies' retail vehicle transactions, and coverage rates vary by company and period; figures derived from it are estimates, are not audited, and may differ materially from figures subsequently reported by the companies themselves. Signals and scenarios describe probabilistic readings of channel data, not predictions of earnings results or securities prices. Past accuracy of the report series is no guarantee of future accuracy. The specific data scope, coverage rate, and out-of-scope segments for the company covered in this report are described in the scope notice at the front of this report and in the Methodology section.

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